Top 10 favorites to win MLB MVP awards
Can you feel it? Can you smell it? Baseball is in the air, and in a matter of days, spring training will be a thing of the past and every game will finally count. Teams across the league will be vying for a championship, and superstars will have an opportunity to put their stamp on MLB history.
Already this spring we’ve taken a look at early Rookie of the Year favorites, as well as Cy Young favorites in both the American League and National League. But what about the big award? What about the MVP?
Here’s a look at 10 early favorites to win MVP — five from both the AL and NL.
American League
5. Mookie Betts (Boston Red Sox)
In 2014, Mookie Betts was considered an exciting rookie with tremendous upside for the Boston Red Sox. By 2016, Betts had already realized that potential and established himself as one of the most elite talents in the American League. And after batting .318/.363/.534 with 31 home runs and 113 RBIs, he finished as the runner-up for AL MVP behind Los Angeles Angels slugger Mike Trout.
Not only did Betts finish second in AL MVP voting, but he also earned a Silver Slugger award, a Gold Glove award and was named an All-Star for the first time in his young career. All told, he had taken only a two-year curve to round himself into one of the best all-around players in the game.
If Betts can repeat his numbers from a season ago, keep his strikeouts down, and boost his on-base percentage, there’s no reason to believe he won’t warrant serious consideration for AL MVP yet again.
4. Carlos Correa (Houston Astros)
The young Carlos Correa burst onto the scene in 2015, earning a distant look as potential AL MVP, but ultimately found himself named the AL Rookie of the Year (as if that’s a bad consolation prize). He followed that up with a strong season in 2016, showcasing both power and speed alongside a solid batting average.
While last season wasn’t quite as impressive as his rookie campaign, Correa is expected to turn the corner in 2017 and establish himself as one of the AL’s best offensive talents.
Entering 2017, Correa is projected to hit between 22-27 home runs, drive in between 90-115 runs, and steal between 17-20 bases. He’s also better than average defensively at shortstop. Couple that with a career batting average of just under .270, and it’s easy to see why Correa is an ascending star and an AL MVP contender.
3. Manny Machado (Baltimore Orioles)
Manny Machado is developing into an MLB superstar, and his power surge over the previous two seasons has only increased his overall value.
On three separate occasions (2013, 2015 and 2016) he’s finished in the top 10 of AL MVP voting, and unlike some other MVP candidates in the AL, he’s got the glove to go along with his bat. Initially a shortstop, Machado has a powerful arm and incredible range at third, and is one of the best defensive infielders in the game.
It’s rare to find all-around talent in any sport these days, so those who possess it are gems. It’s also why there’s so much speculation about the massive contract Machado will likely command next season (many expect him to go to the New York Yankees).
So in a contract year and at the height of his development, Machado would benefit greatly from an MVP season. And given what we’ve already seen, he’ll most certainly be in the race.
Machado smashed 30 doubles and 35 home runs in 2015, and improved upon that with 40 doubles and 37 home runs last season. He finished fourth and fifth in MVP voting those years, respectively.
With his projections expected to mirror his last two seasons, Machado really only has to work on his eye at the plate (a .333 career OBP). If he can see more pitches and draw more walks, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that he’s the best offensive talent in the AL.
2. Josh Donaldson (Toronto Blue Jays)
Josh Donaldson has been a fixture in the MVP race over the last several seasons, winning the award in 2015 and finishing fourth a season ago. And despite only recently making his spring training debut, he appears poised for another run at the award in 2017.
For Donaldson, power is the name of the game. In a time where home run totals are down in comparison to the steroid era, the Blue Jays slugger is still counted on to hit about 40 dingers per season. In fact, nearly every analytical projection has Donaldson poised to hit between 32-37 home runs in 2017, to go along with between 92-117 RBIs.
One thing Donald has also worked on is his patience at the plate, which was evident last season when he collected 109 walks — far and away his career-high. As a result, he’s seen his on-base percentage, OPS and OPS+ climb in each of the past three seasons. And although it dropped a bit in 2016, he’s also seen his slugging percentage surge since leaving Oakland.
As long as Donaldson can get up to speed after missing most of spring training, he’ll once again be in the thick of the MVP race.
1. Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)
Mike Trout is no stranger to MVP hardware, having won the award in both 2014 and 2016. And as the reigning AL MVP, Trout will look to defend his crown in 2017 as he aims to improve upon his impressive numbers from a season ago.
The six-year veteran, who has never finished worst than second in the AL MVP race since his qualifying rookie season of 2012, is projected to belt 30 home runs and drive in over 100 runs this season, which is on par with his career averages. But Trout’s real value will come by way of his batting average and on-base percentage, which reached a career-high .441 last season. He also sported a career-high .991 OPS.
Although some metrics say Trout leaves a little something to be desired defensively — he has a career 2.9 dWAR — he still makes plenty of highlight-reel catches to help his case as an all-around player. In fact, he’s an average defender at worst, which is more than enough to suffice given what he does for the Angels offensively.
A wildly dangerous hitter with game-changing power, Trout should be considered a favorite to go back-to-back with AL MVP awards.
