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#pounditThursday, April 18, 2024

Five key questions for the second half of the NBA season

Russell Westbrook

This is the best time in the history of modern civilization to be an NBA fan. Stats have reverted back to what they looked like in the ’60s, we have seven-foot mythological creatures prancing around everywhere, and there’s enough petty league-wide beef to keep Arby’s in business for an entire fiscal year.

But as the sneaker dust settles and the hashtags lose momentum, those players and teams that can still maintain their chokeholds on our attention will be those we remember most when we look back on this wacky, unpredictable, and altogether glorious year of NBA basketball.

So as January turns to February turns to the All-Star break turns to the trade deadline turns to the second half of the season, let’s have a look at the five biggest questions awaiting us on the other side.

5. Can Russell Westbrook finish the season averaging a triple-double?

At this point, there’s not really a lot left to say about Westbrook, whose nightly fire-breathing rampages have slowly been accelerating the inevitable heat death of the universe. But perhaps his spirited quest to complete the hallowed season-long triple-double is a good place to start.

Oklahoma City’s resident pointzilla currently sits at 30.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game on the year, but conventional wisdom suggests that pulling off the feat may be difficult, particularly as fatigue begins to set in come the second half.

For one, Westbrook’s total rebounding percentage this season is a cranium-bursting 17.1. That seems just slightly unsustainable considering that no guard in NBA history has ever posted a TRB% of 16.0 or higher in any season of 50 or more games played. Westbrook’s 17.1 is also somehow higher than what Kevin Garnett, who led the league in rebounding four times, averaged for his entire professional career (17.0). It doesn’t help either that “The Brodie’s” quest to average double-digit assists is fundamentally dependent on external factors (in this case, on his teammates’ abilities to convert his passes into buckets) and that Enes Kanter, whom Westbrook averages 1.4 assists to a night, decided to go Rocky Balboa on a chair and could miss the next two months.

But at the same time, Westbrook’s big men have been more than willing this season to twiddle their mustaches and defer to their All-Star point guard as he rumbles down the lane to gobble up defensive rebounds. Perhaps it’s part of a concerted effort to streamline the fastbreak process and allow Westbrook to jetski from coast-to-coast. Who knows, maybe they just want to see him do the unthinkable just as much as the rest of us plebes do.

Whatever the case, that, combined with his paranormal 42.1 percent usage rate — which will keep the assist opportunities coming in bunches — means that Westbrook should at least have a puncher’s chance (or in his case, a haymaker’s chance) to pull off the deed. May the odds (and the statkeepers) be ever in his favor.

4. Will Joel Embiid lead the Sixers to the postseason?

[hums and meditates in a cross-legged position]

“I am one with The Process and The Process is with me. I am one with The Process and The Process is with me. I am one with The Process and The Process is with me…”

If you’re still not a believer in the Philadelphia 76ers, perhaps a berth in the 2017 NBA playoffs will be what has you genuflecting at the altar and leading the choir in a spirited rendition of “Amazing Grace” at the Church of Saint Hinkie. Led by the graceful polar bear known as His Excellency Joel Embiid, the Sixers won 10 of their 15 games in the month of January and sit just four games back of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Embiid’s sheer reign of terror on the defensive end has allowed Philly to stock up on defensively-challenged three-point bombers in the starting five (looking at you fam @NikStauskas @ErsanIlyasova). That has created a mutually beneficial relationship wherein JoJo covers for their lapses on D while they provide more breathing room for his Processing to intensify on offense. It has also brought the Sixers closer to the pace-and-space motion offense that head coach Brett Brown, a twig off the old block from Gregg Popovich’s coaching tree, is most comfortable running.

With T.J. McConnell surpassing all expectations, Nerlens Noel and Dario Saric finding their callings as second-unit firecrackers, and Embiid about to fly into a smoldering rage after not making the All-Star team and missing out on his date with Rihanna, now is the time to buckle up and Trust the Process to all kingdom come.

3. How far will the Clippers drop?

The Los Angeles Clippers find themselves in the midst of a Tom Petty-esque free fall right now. Chris Paul got his hand caught in a Russell Westbrook-sized blender and is out until March, Blake Griffin is still regaining his footing after his own lengthy injury absence, and the team is coming off a morale-murdering 144-98 asphyxiation at the hands of the rival Golden State Warriors (though in fairness, Warriors vs. Clippers is about as much of a rivalry these days as Itchy vs. Scratchy).

As it stands for the moment, the Clippers are hanging by a toenail to the fourth seed in the Western Conference but are just half a game ahead of the Utah Jazz and two games in front of the Memphis Grizzlies and 2.5 games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Plummeting down the West standings could actually have a silver lining as finishing sixth or seventh would take them out of Golden State’s playoff bracket and prevent them from having to step foot into the Oracle Arena deathtrap until at least the Western Conference Finals. But a first-round showdown against the silent Siths of San Antonio or the Houston Rockets pyrotechnics display would be a profoundly treacherous path to navigate, especially without the benefit of homecourt advantage. And with the Clippers’ core guys likely only getting less than three months worth of total playing time together this season, all bets are off.

So we’re left with several questions heading into the second half for Lob City.

Is Griffin healthy enough to put the team on his back in Paul’s absence? Can J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford still be counted on to make baskets in crunchtime? Has Luc Mbah a Moute developed into enough of a threat offensively to not be completely cold-shouldered by opposing defenses come the postseason? Will the second unit still have a heartbeat? Will DeAndre Jordan’s hair ever go back to normal? Does Doc Rivers send in the reinforcements? And speaking of which…

2. How does the Carmelo Anthony situation play out?

Phil Jackson had made it his personal mission to distance himself from Carmelo Anthony like the avian bird flu, and that could have a major butterfly effect on the rest of the league.

‘Melo could end up on the aforementioned Clippers to finally fill that Defense Against the Dark Arts professor-like small forward position of theirs. Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge could throw the farm at the Knicks and allow Anthony and 5-foot-9 heat missile Isaiah Thomas to attempt a hostile takeover of the Eastern Conference (despite what this report might have you believe). Heck, LeBron James could even Jedi mind trick the Zen Master into believing that Kay Felder and DeAndre Liggins are (a) actually real people and (b) sufficient enough of a return package for Anthony. We simply don’t know.

What we do know is Anthony’s full no-trade clause and 15 percent trade kicker mean that not just any team with assets to offer and the cap space to absorb Me7o’s colossal contract can make a run at him.

Realistically speaking, Anthony probably wants to stay in a major market to play for a team that’s one lethal scoring threat away from legitimate title contention. Not many places fit that billing, which seriously squeezes the number of potential destinations for the nine-time All-Star. But wherever the 32-year-old Anthony ends up, there’s a not-zero possibility that he’s fool’s gold at this point of his career with his volatile personality, declining efficiency, and inexplicable vendetta against ball movement. Nevertheless, with all that risk also comes the chance that adding a 23.1-point-per-game scorer with strong rebounding production and a respectable-at-worst, supernova-at-best three-point shot will be what takes a team to the top of the mountain. So for all of Melo’s prospective trade suitors, I just have to pose one question: Do you feel lucky, punk?

1. Is this all just an elaborate setup for a Warriors-Cavaliers rubber match in June?

Perhaps this was all just meant to entertain us before we were forced to face our inescapable destiny: the flame-throwing Golden State Warriors squaring off against the big-talent, bigger-luxury-tax-bill Cleveland Cavaliers in a third consecutive NBA Finals for all the marbles. Well right now, the likelihood of the remainder of the year going chalk, absent of any and all Shyamalan twists looks prettay, prettay, prettay good.

The Dubs are exactly the bogeymen we thought they would be, and perhaps what’s most impressive is that they have managed to whip up a defense that’s just as elite this year (101.0 defensive rating) as it was last year (100.9). And that’s despite replacing Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut with Kevin Durant and [deep inhale through nose] Zaza Pachulia. Now that Durant appears to have figured out that he needs to work around Stephen Curry being Stephen Curry and not the other way around, we should probably start making a beeline for the emergency exits.

As for the Cavs, they’re suffering through one of their patented midseason crises at the moment, but we’ve seen how this script plays out before. They’ll have their collective see-the-light moment some time after the All-Star break (be it a team bowling outing, a LeBron James subtweet, or otherwise), rip off a double-digit win streak in March, and clinch the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference with enough time to spare to recharge their batteries and unleash nuclear hell on some poor souls in the postseason. Kyle Korver will stop fitting out eventually, Channing Frye and Richard Jefferson will skip arm-in-arm to Ponce de Leon’s fountain of youth, and JR Smith will be back with the pipe before we know it. Ho hum.

So is it safe already to pencil in Oracle v. Quicken Loans Part III? Or can hardwood fate be tempted? Can the benevolent basketball gods summon enough of their omnipotent power to prevent this seemingly-predetermined collision course? Can a surprise contender emerge from the ashes of slain challengers past to disrupt the history books and send all of our narratives into the garbage chute? It’s hard to say. But I’ll definitely have my Michael Jackson eating popcorn GIF ready as we embark in the ongoing process of finding out in the second half of the season.

*Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com*

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