Mayweather-Pacquiao draw a popular bet due to conspiracy theory

The Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao fight is expected to be one of the most heavily bet on boxing matches in history, with enough action to approach Super Bowl levels.

RJ Bell of Pregame.com says some estimates expect $70 million to be wagered on the fight in Las Vegas alone, compared to around $116 million for the Super Bowl.

While Mayweather is favored in the fight by 1:2 odds and it’s nearly 1:3.5 that the fight goes the distance, one other bet has become extremely popular.

According to Bell, the possibility of the fight being a draw opened at 22:1 at the MGM and has been bet all the way down to 8:1. Bell notes that the draw has been the most popular bet at some sportsbooks by about double over anything else.

The reason many people are wagering on a draw is because of a popular conspiracy theory that if the fight ends in a draw, it would allow for a lucrative rematch. This is Mayweather’s fifth of six contracted fights he has with Showtime, so he is likely to fight again in September before deciding if he wants to retire. A rematch with Pacquiao to end his contract with Showtime makes sense, but I don’t see it happening.

The most important thing in Mayweather’s life is his undefeated record. That is the reason for his being. He is trying to go down as the best boxer in history. If he has a draw on his record, that’s a blemish on his resume. He would never agree to a draw as part of a conspiracy because it would mar his legacy.

I’ll have my full fight prediction posted soon, but I think Floyd will win by split decision.