It’s been two weeks of analyzing, arguing, and pontificating about Super Bowl XLV. Finally, the big game is upon us, and you’re probably contributing at least a few bucks to the billions of dollars wagered on the Super Bowl. We’ve already been over some of the crazy prop bets available, so now it’s time for advice on the ones that will win you the money.
1) James Starks’ first run is set at 3.5 yards — I think that one goes under at -145. Pittsburgh’s vaunted run defense has earned its reputation for a reason; Starks won’t gain that kind of ground easily. Win. 1 yard
2) Likewise, under 50.5 yards at -110 is a great bet against James Starks. Again, not only do I not see the Packers running on the Steelers well, I don’t even see them trying to. Loss. 52 yards
3) The amount of total sacks in the game is listed at five at -110. I think that one goes over. Both defenses are swarming, and the Packers in particular have a strong pass rush. I think that either pushes or goes over. Loss. 4 sacks
4) I still think betting that the first score of the game will not be a touchdown is a good bet. I’ll take +155 that the first score is a field goal. Loss. Packers TD.
5) Longest touchdown of the game will be under 44.5 yards at -110. I know both offenses are capable of big plays, I just think it’s tough to say that will happen. Win. 37 yards longest.
And if you want to know my expert pick for the game, here it is.