5 potential upsets that could change the College Football Playoff

With the college football season just on the other side of its mid-way point, the dominant teams are beginning to stake their claim, and the early view of the College Football Playoff is slowly coming into focus.

But over the next seven weeks there will be teams looking to derail some of these top programs. And what we see shaping up right now will inevitably change by the time four CFP teams are determined.

Here’s a look at five potential upsets that could completely screw up the College Football Playoff.

5. Washington vs. USC (November 12)

A year ago the headlines read “Huskies upset USC 17-12 and beat Steve Sarkisian, their former coach.” But here in 2016, the two teams find themselves in drastically different situations and a reversal of fortunes could be on tap.

The Washington Huskies are currently 7-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25, while the USC Trojans have rebounded from a 1-3 start with four consecutive victories, including a 21-17 win over 21st-ranked Colorado.

Expectations were initially high for USC coming into the season, but games against Alabama, Stanford and Utah quickly put any national championship hopes to bed. But now they get to seek revenge over the team that upset them a year ago and potentially play spoiler in the process.

Washington still has to navigate games against 17th-ranked Utah and Cal before they get the Trojans at home, but that’s what makes this game potentially unique. By all accounts, it’s a proverbial trap game.

The Huskies will likely be riding high after two straight road wins, including one over a ranked opponent, and could overlook the three-loss Trojans at home. And should that happen, Washington’s College Football Playoff chances would all but be shattered in gut-wrenching fashion.

4. Nebraska at Wisconsin (October 29)

Nebraska may currently be on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in, but the 7-0 7th-ranked Cornhuskers have two opportunities over the next two weeks to put their imprint firmly on this season.

With other top-ranked teams also facing potential pitfalls over the final few weeks of the season, Nebraska is in prime position to move up the ladder and really take the bull by the horns. At the same time, however, they could also find themselves on the opposite end of an upset that effectively ends their CFP chances in the event one of the top four teams also loses.

Enter 5-2 Wisconsin, who will be hosting Nebraska in their fifth game against a ranked opponent this season.

The 11th-ranked Badgers appear far more battle-tested at this point in the season than do the Cornhuskers, whose sole game against a ranked opponent came in a Week 3 victory over the Oregon Ducks, who are now 2-5 on the year.

The Badgers come into the game with key victories over LSU and Michigan State, but rough losses in close games against Michigan and Ohio State. And although they sit at 5-2, a victory over unbeaten Nebraska could be just what the doctor ordered to inch Wisconsin closer to a spot in the top four.

Regardless of which way this game goes, it will likely have an impact on the College Football Playoff down the line. Should Nebraska win, they’ll have a legitimate case for a top-four ranking. But if Wisconsin wins, their three victories over ranked opponents could come into play if other top-ranked teams falter in the final weeks of the season.

3. Clemson at Florida State (October 29)

Perhaps no other game on the college football schedule has a higher likelihood for upset than Clemson against Florida State in Week 9.

The Tigers are 1-11 against the Seminoles in Tallahassee over the last 25 years, with their sole victory coming in 2006. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has also never won there.

While this is easily the most talented Tigers team traveling to Tallahassee over that span, there’s no way around that 1-11 mark and what it does to players from a mental standpoint. They’re all very well aware of the team’s historic struggles on the road against Florida State, so that only serves to add more pressure.

On the opposite side of the field, the Seminoles are feeling a bit letdown this season. They came in with dreams of a national championship dancing in their heads, but have seen those hopes dashed following a destructive loss to Louisville and a wild upset at the hands of North Carolina.

With games against Clemson and Florida remaining, there’s is still an outside chance the Seminoles can battle their way back into the College Football Playoff picture. And that all begins with a game against Clemson — a potentially defining game that would tremendously boost their chances.

For both Florida State and Clemson, this game will help them sink or swim. And it’s for that reason there’s such a high probability for an upset and a CFP picture shuffle.

2. Michigan at Ohio State (November 26)

Once thought to be a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff, the Ohio State Buckeyes now find themselves in a position where they must run the table following a stunning upset loss to Penn State.

Assuming they can defeat 7th-ranked Nebraska and Michigan State along the way, their journey back to the CFP will conclude on November 26 against 2nd-ranked Michigan.

The Wolverines, for all their dominance, have had it somewhat easy this season. To date, they’ve played only one ranked opponent — a 14-7 victory over then-No. 8 Wisconsin — and won’t see another until they travel to the “The Horseshoe” for a Big Ten showdown with Ohio State.

Of course, when these two teams meet you can pretty much throw all the numbers, records and statistics right out the window. Perhaps only second to Auburn/Alabama, Ohio State/Michigan is one of the best rivalries in college football.

Currently, the Buckeyes are riding a four-game win streak (and 13 out of the last 15) against Michigan, but the Wolverines undoubtedly have this game circled on their calendar.

Regardless of who wins or loses, it will absolutely impact the College Football Playoff. But should it be the Buckeyes who come out victorious, it may result in a complete shakeup of the rankings and brackets — even more so if the next game on this list ends in a similar upset.

1. Alabama vs. Auburn (November 26)

The notion that Alabama will lose this season, let alone on their home field, is probably laughable to many. But that same laughter was shared when I listed Auburn as one of the top five teams that could surprise the college football world in early September.

Currently, Auburn is red hot and coming off of a 56-3 beating of 17th-ranked Arkansas. Their defense has been every bit as dominant as expected, and their run-first, misdirection offense is finally starting to come together.

While the Iron Bowl is still quite a ways away, there’s no doubt it’s beginning to creep into the minds of the Tigers. They have a relatively favorable schedule leading up to that game, and so long as they can navigate it with ease, they could, potentially, find themselves in a battle for the SEC West crown.

The Crimson Tide will have to avoid an upset against LSU after returning from their bye week, but the No. 1-ranked team in the nation should have little trouble with that. Softer games against Mississippi State and Chattanooga will then lead up to the biggest rivalry game of the college football season.

No two teams know each other better than Alabama and Auburn, and as we’ve seen in the not so distant past, even an inferior Tigers squad can find ways to not only put up big numbers, but also come away with remarkable and historic upsets.

As dominant as Alabama may be, no team poses a bigger threat to them than Auburn. If nothing else, the Iron Bowl should be a thrilling game that comes down to the final moments. And should the Tigers walk away victorious, it will completely shake up the College Football Playoff from top to bottom.