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#pounditWednesday, April 24, 2024

Five biggest surprises of the NFL season so far

carson-wentz

Through five weeks of the NFL regular season, very little has gone according to plan. Teams that were expected to make a run at the Super Bowl have become basement dwellers; expected basement dwellers have become legitimate contenders; and players all across the league seem to be either exceeding expectations or falling well short of them.

On a team-by-team basis, there would be at least 32 legitimate surprises in the NFL just passed the quarter point of the season, but why limit it to just teams and players?

Here’s a look at the top five biggest surprises of the year to date.

5. NFL ratings are going down, down, down

Prior to Week 5 of the regular season, it became apparent to the NFL that their drop in ratings was no fluke. Legitimate concern was growing among the league, networks and advertisers as ratings were dropping across the board.

As of this past week, the NFL had seen major network viewership drop 10% from a year ago, with ESPN leading the way with a 17% decrease. CBS’ “Thursday Night Football” was down 15%, NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” was down 13% and even CBS and FOX on Sunday’s were down 3% each.

Going up against the presidential debate on Sunday night did little to alleviate those concerns and, as expected, the NFL took a beating. The New York Giants-Green Bay Packers prime-time game scored a 10.2 overnight rating, which was a 22% drop from the Week 5 Sunday night game in 2015, and a 20% drop from the Week 5 Sunday night game in 2014.

Although the 2016 presidential race is partially to blame for the dip in ratings, neither the NFL nor its advertisers believe that’s entirely the cause of such a stiff drop-off.

With national anthem protests growing, Tom Brady having been suspended, other superstars injured and a poor slate of prime-time games, it’s been a perfect storm of destruction for the league.

“If the trend continues, it is a concern,” Jefferies & Co. analyst John Janedis told the Wall Street Journal.

With viewers growing increasingly impatient with the poor prime-time product, the negative news coming out of the league, the head-to-head with presidential debates and the continued cable cutting across the country, the ratings problem appears to only just be getting started for the NFL.

4. Atlanta Falcons, Matt Ryan bounce back

It’s been a rough few years for the Atlanta Falcons, but despite their 8-8 finish a season ago — their best finish since a 13-3 season in 2012 — there didn’t seem to be reason for much optimism heading into 2016.

Quarterback Matt Ryan had one of his worst statistical seasons in 2015, throwing for only 21 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions, and posting his lowest QBR (61.79) since 2009. There were also issues with turnovers, a lack of sacks and serious concerns on the defensive side of the ball.

Coming into this season, the team was also dealing with the departures of linebacker Justin Durant, wide receivers Roddy White and Devin Hester, and safety William Moore.

Following a season-opening 31-24 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it appeared to be more of the same for Ryan & Co.

Since then however, the Falcons have put all of those concerns on ice and caused people to forget about their Week 1 hiccup. They’ve gone 4-0 over the last four weeks with key victories over the Oakland Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos.

Not only has Atlanta been winning, but they’ve been putting up huge offensive numbers on the arm of Matt Ryan. In fact, Ryan has rapidly established himself as an MVP contender, completing 69% of his passes for 1,740 yards, 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

3. How about Trevor Siemian?

No Peyton Manning? No Brock Osweiler? No problem for the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos.

Trevor Siemian’s starting career got off to a slightly rough start when he threw two interceptions in a season-opening win over the Carolina Panthers, but things quickly turned a corner after that. A few weeks later, Siemian has not only cemented himself under center for the Broncos, but has actually put up quality numbers.

Siemian has completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,054 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions on the season. And the only reason those numbers aren’t more substantial is because Siemian was forced to leave a Week 4 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers due to injury and missed a Week 5 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

Bottom line? Siemian has filled in admirably in the face of intense scrutiny and doubt.

From real-estate associate to starting quarterback for the defending champions following the retirement of a future Hall of Famer, talk about a surprise journey for Siemian and the Broncos.

2. NFC East rookie quarterbacks off to unexpected start

There were a lot of questions about Carson Wentz during the preseason, and many expected the Philadelphia Eagles to leave him on the bench early on in his rookie campaign.

A trade of Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings changed those plans, and Wentz was promptly thrown into the fire out of the gate. But no one could have foreseen what came next.

Wentz was immediately hotter than the fire he was thrown into, going without an interception over his first 134 pass attempts. Of course, that first interception came at a wildly inopportune time, essentially sealing a loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 4.

Still, four games into his rookie season, and Wentz’s mistakes have been exceptionally limited. Currently he’s competing 67.4% of his pass and has thrown for 1,007 yards and seven touchdowns.

Ironically, the only rookie quarterback off to an arguably hotter start than Wentz is his NFC East rival, Dak Prescott. And similarly to Wentz, no one expected Prescott under center when the season started.

After Tony Romo went down in the preseason with a broken bone in his back, Prescott was thrust into the starting role.

With expectations then tempered for the Dallas Cowboys, Prescott began his NFL career with little pressure. And despite an opening week loss to the New York Giants, Prescott has displayed a mature and veteran-like demeanor, relying primarily on his arm and limiting unnecessary risks with his legs.

Entering Week 5, Prescott has gone 155 pass attempts without an interception, which is an NFL rookie record, and is rapidly nearing Tom Brady’s record of 162 pass attempts without an interception to start an NFL career.

As things currently sit, Prescott has completed 69% of his passes for 1,239 yards and four touchdowns. He also sports a quarterback rating of 101.5.

1. Vikings dominating without Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater

When Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater went down with a gruesome knee injury in late August, many experts believed the team’s only course of action would be to pound Adrian Peterson relentlessly.

Then the unthinkable happened. In Week 2 of the season, Peterson suffered a knee injury and was subsequently placed on Injured Reserve (IR).

It seemed like a nightmare scenario for the Vikings, but instead feeling sorry for themselves, they rose to the challenge and have now reeled off five straight wins to start the season. They are the sole unbeaten remaining in the NFL.

With Sam Bradford, who was acquired from the Eagles and paved the way for Carson Wentz to start, at the helm, a running back by committee filling in for Peterson, and the league’s most talented all-around defense leading the way, the Vikings haven’t just survived without their two superstars; they’ve thrived.

“I haven’t seen a Minnesota defense this fun to watch. The one thing that stands out to me is how much pressure they get with four guys rushing,” retired Vikings wide receiver Randy Moss said during a recent appearance on ‘Voice of the Vikings’ with Paul Allen. “The Vikings are heading the right direction. How far they go, I don’t know, but I like what I see. I like Coach [Mike] Zimmer, I like what he brings to the table. The Vikings are heading the right direction. I’m glad they beat Green Bay here a couple of weeks ago.”

Although Bridgewater won’t return in 2016, there remains a chance Peterson will. And if he does, it will shore up Minnesota’s sole area of weakness. Needless to say the sky appears to be the limit for these Vikings.

Even prior to those injuries, precious few expected that.

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