5 most surprising NFL playoff contenders

The 2016 NFL regular season is now entering Week 11 and the playoff picture is slowly beginning to take shape. And while we’re still a long way from crowning division champions and wildcard winners, there are several unexpected teams firmly in the hunt.

Here’s a look at the top five.

5. Tennessee Titans

There was debate about putting the Oakland Raiders in this spot, but for anyone who was truly paying attention, their rise shouldn’t come as that much of a surprise.

Instead, we went with a team currently on the outside looking in, but one that had shown some promise in recent weeks and clearly has an offense that can compete with anyone: the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans last had a winning record in 2011 and had combined for only five wins over the last two seasons. Already in 2016, quarterback Marcus Mariota & Co. have matched that. That’s made all the more impressive considering they started the season 1-3.

But thanks in large part to Mariota’s maturation, DeMarco Murray’s resurgence and a deep pool of wide receivers, Tennessee’s offense has them right in the thick of things.

However, the Titans’ improbable path to the playoffs faces its first real test in Week 11 when they take on an Indianapolis Colts team which beat them earlier in the season and are now looking to leap-frog them for second place in the AFC South.

The Titans also face a key divisional game against the Houston Texas to cap off their season, and a potential back-breaker against the Denver Broncos in Week 13. But the luxury Tennessee has going for them in addition to their suddenly high-powered offense, is a growing confidence that they’re capable of upsetting quality teams.

Precious few expected the Titans to be here in Week 11, so if they can come up with another upset over the Colts this weekend, the entire dynamic of the AFC South begins to shift in their favor.

4. Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins have not had a record above .500 since 2008, and after starting the season with a 1-4 record, that did not appear destined to change.

To their credit, the Dolphins, led by rookie head coach Adam Gase, hung together and have reeled off four straight wins, including victories against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills and San Diego Chargers, and now find themselves inching closer to playoff contention and, dare we say it, a shot at the AFC East crown.

Miami is now only a game and a half back in the AFC playoff hunt and two games back of the New England Patriots in the AFC East.

Sure, they still have a large wall to climb, but they are hoping to benefit from a relatively easy schedule between Week 11 and Week 16. Over that span, they face only one team with a winning record (Baltimore Ravens, 5-4) and cap off the season with crucial games against the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.

With running back Jay Ajayi and wide receiver Jarvis Landry playing at Pro Bowl levels, it will be up to quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the team’s defense to step up and do their part. If that happens, the Dolphins may very well surprise the NFL world and sneak into the playoffs.

3. New York Giants

The Giants finished the 2015 season with a 6-10 record and, after having missed the playoffs yet again, it was clear that changes were looming.

Long-time head coach Tom Coughlin was forced to resign, there was a coaching staff restructure, and general manager Jerry Reese went into a wild free agent spending spree. It seemed like reconstruction had officially begun and it might take the Giants a year or two to round back into shape.

Things only got worse as scandal after scandal seemed to rock the team, first with the accusation that defensive tackle Jay Bromley had sexually assaulted a woman, then with wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.’s temper tantrums and finally with the revelation that kicker Josh Brown had physically abused his ex-wife.

Somehow, despite the winds of change and distraction, the Giants have managed to pull themselves together and now find themselves right in the middle of the NFC playoff hunt. They will take a 6-3 record into a two-game stretch against the Chicago Bears (2-7) and Cleveland Browns (0-10) with the hopes of coming out the other end with a firm grasp on a return to the playoffs.

But the Giants still have an opportunity to seek more than the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. Currently, they are the only team to have beaten the Dallas Cowboys and will host them at MetLife Stadium later this year. Should Dallas slip up along the way, New York could very well make a legitimate run at the NFC East title.

2. Detroit Lions

Coming off of a 7-9 season in 2015, things didn’t get off to a much better start for the Detroit Lions in 2016. After defeating the Indianapolis Colts in a close game to open the year, they promptly dropped three straight, while watching the Minnesota Vikings go unbeaten over that same span.

The NFC North appeared out of reach early on, but as the Vikings slowly came back down to earth and then completely crumbled, the Lions capitalized on their suddenly good fortunes.

Detroit has gone 4-1 over their last five games and now leads the division. It hasn’t exactly been pretty, with plenty of bumps along the way, but with a relatively weak schedule up ahead, many in the Motor City are thinking big.

Add in the wide array of improbable wins and it appears that’s becoming a theme for the Lions — improbable, but not impossible.

Should Detroit navigate an upcoming schedule that includes games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Vikings, New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears, they very well could position themselves to win the NFC North over the final three games of the season. And if that were to happen, it would not only lead to an unlikely playoff appearance, but the first home playoff game in Detroit since 1993.

1. Dallas Cowboys

After finishing 4-12 in 2015, it was hard to gauge exactly who the Dallas Cowboys were coming into the 2016 season. Suspensions to linebacker Rolando McClain and defensive ends DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory only further muddied those waters, and when quarterback Tony Romo went down in the preseason with a fracture in his back, “America’s Team” was almost completely written off.

In Week 1, things didn’t get much better for the Cowboys as they fell to the New York Giants 20-19 at home. It was a game they very much could have won, but a mental error late in the fourth quarter cost them a victory.

That’s when things drastically changed for the Cowboys. As if a light-switch had been flipped, they went from 0-100 MPH, reeling off eight straight victories to take over the best record in the NFL.

The team has been led by rookie first-round pick Ezekiel Elliott, who tops the league in rushing thanks in part to his dominant offensive line, and rookie fourth-round pick Dak Prescott, who is having a season no one anticipated.

Although some will point out that the Cowboys have faced the league’s easiest schedule to date, they’ve done what they’ve had to do. And as we enter Week 11, they have the highest probability for a playoff appearance of any one team in the NFL after having been completely and totally written off previously.