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Thursday, April 19, 2018

NFL picks against the spread Week 1 – Doc Brown time

As Del said in his selections, it’s good to be back.

Doc and Del took a one-year hiatus from picking games, but we are back at it again. Week 1 is always a tricky thing because you don’t know what to expect from teams. As a general policy, I like to observe the first two weeks before putting down any picks of significance, but that doesn’t work so well when all leagues demand your picks in Week 1.

Anyway, Del already wrote a post explaining his picks for the week. Below is a look at my picks. Each of our top 3 picks are highlighted in light blue. Those are the money picks. Full analysis below.

Doc Picks

I really don’t understand how the Raiders-Colts line isn’t double-digits. Oakland is trash. Indianapolis is good. The Raiders should be getting like 13-14 points here, so 9.5 is a gift. It won’t take long for the bookmakers to realize how bad the Raiduhhhs are before making adjustments. Are we really expecting Terrelle Pryor, Matt Flynn, Matt McGloin, or whatever rag-tag bunch of QBs they throw out there to actually be competitive? Not a chance. Give me Indy all day.

I often like choosing pick em games for my confidence pick because there is less to worry about with fluky covers. This is just a matter of pick the winner. I don’t think the Miami Dolphins are anything special. I certainly don’t think they’re overtaking the New England Patriots in the AFC East the way many others do. But I do think they are better than Cleveland even on the road. I like some of the additions the Dolphins made and am excited to see Mike Wallace catch some deep bombs. Give me Miami in this one.

Chip Kelly gets a tough assignment in his first game as an NFL head coach, but I think he’s up for it. Matter of fact, I think the entire Philadelphia Eagles team will be up for it. I think that offense will do very well under Kelly, and I think they’re going to stun Washington and many fans around the league by getting a win on Monday night. I could be crazy, I could be wrong, but I just have that hunch.

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