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Tuesday, October 21, 2014

NFL picks Week 4 against the spread – Del’s comeback

Del has dug himself into quite the hole with some rough picks through the first three weeks of the NFL season. If this were Week 10, I’d start to get a little concerned. Since there are still over 200 games remaining in the regular season, there is more than enough time to turn the season around.

That being said, there can be no more excuses. The comeback has to start now, and the top three have to improve. After seeing three weeks of play, we’re hoping to have a better idea of what teams are and aren’t capable of. As usual, Del’s Week 4 NFL picks are below, with analysis of the top three after the chart. Be sure to check back later in the week for Doc Brown’s Week 4 selections.

NFL PICKS WEEK 4
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

NFL-Picks-Week-4

For my first lock of the week, I’m betting against Buccaneers rookie quarterback Mike Glennon. Josh Freeman has been benched for this weekend’s game against Arizona, paving the way for the former North Carolina State star to make his NFL debut. In addition to being inexperienced, Glennon will also be throwing to a banged-up Vincent Jackson (ribs) — assuming Jackson plays. V-Jack has a better shot to play than Tampa Bay’s No. 2 option Mike Williams, who has been dealing with a groin injury. The game is in Tampa, but there should be plenty of growing pains for Glennon. The Cardinals are getting 2.5 points and I wouldn’t be surprised if they win outright.

The second line that jumped out at me this week was the Colts laying eight on the road against Jacksonville. It’s always risky to pick the favorite to cover a sizable spread on the road in the NFL, but the Jaguars are horrendous. Blaine Gabbert will be back under center for Week 4, and I’m not sure if he gives the team a better or worse chance than Chad Henne. If the Colts were able to travel all the way to the west coast and put a whooping on the Niners, I don’t see why they shouldn’t do the same closer to home against a lesser opponent.

And finally, I’m taking the Falcons to cover only two points at home against the Patriots. This is a risky pick to lock in simply because we haven’t really had a chance to see everything the Patriots have. Rob Gronkowski could make his 2013 debut, while Danny Amendola appears almost certain to miss another game. New England’s offense will receive a major boost when Tom Brady gets one or both of those weapons back. However, the improved Patriots defense we’ve heard so much about has faced two rookie quarterbacks, EJ Manuel and Geno Smith, and another who has been benched in Josh Freeman. Matt Ryan and company will present the first true test for Bill Belichick’s squad, and I’m not sure they’re ready to handle it without Gronk and Amendola.



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