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Friday, May 25, 2018

NFL picks Week 11 against the spread – Doc’s picks

Doc has already abandoned the Costanza Plan after only one week. You go .500 and don’t see many good results, and that causes you to abandon things.

The past four weeks have really been a rotten run for the Doc. Is Vegas raking in the dough and making their money? You bet, but that doesn’t mean it’s too late to start earning it back. Actually, the process to redemption will begin with the Week 11 picks against the spread. Full picks in the chart below, with Top 3 analysis after that.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

Doc picks

We’ve learned plenty of times this season that playing a new quarterback does not guarantee a cover (see: Hoyer, Brian; Keenum, Case). The Doc has actually been burned multiple times thinking that a new QB stepping in meant bad news for that team. But we’re still going strong on that theory, anyway. The Doc is taking Keenum and the Houston Texans to cover against the Oakland Raiders, who will be starting Matt McGloin at quarterback. There were plenty of reports in camp saying that he looked good for them, but we’re not expecting much. Plus, Houston’s offense has played well under Keenum, who has connected with Andre Johnson for five touchdowns in the past two games. We’ll take our chances with one offense showing improvement over one showing decline.

The Giants, similarly, will be facing a third-string QB. Scott Tolzien gets the start for the Packers. Sure, Green Bay has a nice offensive system and some very talented weapons, but are we really expecting much from them? The Giants aren’t exactly barnburners this season, but they have won three in a row and their defense finally showed signs of life last week. That’s going to be key for them to get another win this week.

The Steelers are coming off a nice home win over the Buffalo Bills last weekend. Ben Roethlisberger is no doubt ticked off about all the trade rumors and will have extra motivation to prove he can still play. Despite being an indoor team, the Lions have actually fared well on the road this season. They’ve beaten the Bears, Browns and Washington on the road, but we’re thinking that trend will end this week and that they’ll overlook Pittsburgh. Consider this one a trap game for Detroit.

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