NFL Picks Week 12 – Doc Brown Special

With Thursday games becoming the norm, we’re getting our picks out to you early in the week in time for you to fill out your office pool sheet (or whatever it is that you do). Del killed it last week with a 13-3 record, and he’s gone 3-0 in his Top 3 the past two weeks. While Doc Brown wasn’t quite as impressive, he continues to beat the bookies at a steady pace. The Doc is picking at a 56% rate ATS in all games, and an incredible 74% ATS in his Top 3 each week. So the question on your mind has to be … which teams does Doc like this week? Your answers …

The Doc has trusted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers several times this year in his Top 3. They’re one of the best road teams in the league and they’re getting a generous nine points this week. Yes, they do well against teams on their level and crumble against superior opponents (which Baltimore is), but the Ravens’ offense is not designed to blow teams out. Yeah I could see a scenario where Baltimore lets Ray Rice loose, but the Bucs generally stay competitive in games.

The Packers and Falcons are the hottest teams in the league, each having won four in a row. There’s a reason we chose this for the Prime Time Preview — it’s by far the game of the week. I know about Matt Ryan’s home record and how good the Falcons are in the Georgia Dome, but I think the Packers are playing better than anyone right now — just look at their defensive stats. Atlanta’s offense has looked great and unchallenged by their last several opponents. I just think Green Bay’s defense can shut any team’s down, and I think it will be hard for anyone to stop Green Bay’s offense the way Aaron Rodgers is playing. The Falcons are really good, I just really like the way Green Bay has been playing.

People still like the Minnesota Vikings, or at least believe in them. How else can you explain this line being bet down to a pick ’em some places despite opening as Washington favored by 2.5? Yeah the Redskins threw out a stinker on Monday night, but they responded with a road win at Tennessee. I think they’re a steady squad while Minnesota is a bad team. Brett Favre just is not good this year, and I don’t think that’s changing this week. They may have a resurgence under Leslie Frazier similar to what happened with the Cowboys and Jason Garrett, but I’m not betting on it.