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Sunday, October 26, 2014

NFL Picks Week 11 against the spread – Del’s desperation

At this point, all we can really do is roll our weekly picks out there and see what happens. Del followed up an abysmal 2-11 week against the spread in Week 9 with a less-than-impressive 6-8 record in Week 11. The only positive we can take from last week is the 2-1 in the top-three selections. We’re a full 15 games below the 50-percent mark against the spread with seven weeks remaining. Will it be impossible to get our heads back above water? No, but we need a lot of luck.

Hopefully, that luck starts this week. That’s about all I have to say for myself. Here are Del’s Week 11 NFL Picks, with analysis of the top three (or four this week) after the sheet. Check back later in the week for Doc Brown’s picks.

NFL PICKS WEEK 11
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

NFL-Picks-Week-11

No, you’re not seeing things. Del has decided to go with four locks this week, despite his embarrassing record with the top three selections this season. For whatever reason, a lot of lines are jumping out at me. It’s time to sink or swim.

For starters, I’m taking the Colts laying three on the road against the Titans on Thursday night. Both Indianapolis and Jacksonville were embarrassed last weekend. The Colts were destroyed by the Rams at home and the Titans were defeated by the worst team in football. Someone is going to bounce back on Thursday, and my money is on Andrew Luck. Tennessee has been great against the pass, which could work against the Colts if they have to lean on Trent Richardson. That being said, I’m not a huge believer in Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think the Colts cover a field goal.

Next, I’m going with the Jets getting a point on the road at Buffalo. Simply put, I think the Jets are a much better team. EJ Manuel is back and should improve each week, but CJ Spiller is still banged up and the Bills are coming off a physical game in Pittsburgh. The Jets, on the other hand, are well-rested coming off the bye and beat the Saints — who looked unstoppable last weekend — in Week 9. I don’t think Rex Ryan’s crew is getting enough credit. They should win outright.

Another line I like this week is the Texans laying seven at home against the Raiders. In case you haven’t noticed, Terrelle Pryor has gotten worse in recent weeks. He is not protecting the football and is making dumb mistakes. That could be because he is battling a knee injury. Speaking of that, Pryor may not even start this week. He has been limited in practice while Matt McGloin is taking most of the first-team reps. Houston’s defense is much better than it has been given credit for. They rank 1st against the pass and 16th against the rush. Part of the issue before was Matt Schaub putting JJ Watt and company in compromising positions. The Texans should force a couple turnovers and roll the Raiders, especially if McGloin starts.

Finally, I’m going with the Saints at home giving the 49ers three points. Did you see what New Orleans did to the Cowboys last week? Jimmy Graham played less than half of the team’s offensive snaps and was barely in on goal line packages, and the Saints still destroyed Dallas. On the flip side, Colin Kaepernick and company ran into a brick wall against Carolina and lost a tough 10-9 game at home. San Francisco’s offense simply isn’t clicking, and defenses rarely ever stop Drew Brees and company in the Super Dome. The Niners should score more than nine points, but the Saints will prevail.



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