NFL Picks Week 13 – Del’s Selections

And the hot streak continues. A mini-slump slowed Del down a few weeks back, but he’s been killing it lately with his picks, both against the spread and straight up. Last week, Del enjoyed a 9-6 week ATS and a whopping 11-4 SU. The Top 3 continued to make money with another 2-1 week, and Del is now winning 69 percent of the time with the Top 3 selections. The numbers don’t lie, and we’re looking to continue the success right through the end of the season.

This week, Doc Brown and Del agree on two out of their three locks, so it would be too repetitive for me to get into an explanation of why I chose St. Louis and Atlanta as two of my Top 3 picks.  For a great breakdown of the reasoning, check out Doc Brown’s Week 13 picks.  His analysis pretty much sums up both of our thoughts on the games, so I’ll spare you the redundancy.

As for the other Top 3 pick, I love Miami -4.5 this week against the Browns.  Cleveland had been playing well and hanging tough against good competition, but then Jake Delhomme happened.  Colt McCoy’s decision making and lack of mistakes was keeping the Browns in games.  Delhomme is the opposite.  On the flip side, word out of Miami is that Tony Sparano’s decision to bench Chad Henne has lit a fire under his can.  It showed in a convincing road win over the Raiders last weekend.  There’s no reason to think they can’t do it again at home against a Browns team led by Delhomme.  More analysis after the picks chart.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

Another game I like this week is the Packers at home against the Niners.  Green Bay should dominate.  The 49ers will probably be confident coming off their win in Arizona — but they shouldn’t be.  The Cardinals are garbage.  Green Bay, on the other hand, will be looking to bounce back after losing a game they could have won in Atlanta.  They should win by two touchdowns.

Can anyone see Peyton Manning and the Colts losing three games in a row and four out of five?  Me neither.  The Cowboys still aren’t that good, and Indy should take advantage of them at home.  They should be able to cover a 5-point spread as they look to get back on track and keep hold of the AFC South division lead.

NFL Picks Week 13 – Doc Brown Special

It was a rough week for Doc Brown last weekend as he experienced his first losing week in the Top 3, going 1-2. Still, that’s 10 of 11 weeks where the Doc has won you money, and the season long percentages have been strong. We have a pretty good sense of how good and bad teams are by now so that makes games much easier to predict. The only factor is whether or not the teams comply on the field.

The Buffalo Bills may be just 2-9 on the season, but they’ve been extremely competitive lately. They’ve won two of their last six games and lost each of the four games by exactly three points. They’re getting six at Minnesota in some sports books which is double the margin they’ve been losing by. They keep things close and I have no reason to believe that will change.

Arizona has been one of the worst teams in the NFL, losing their last six games. Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo says it felt like three seasons ago when St. Louis lost their opener to Arizona and that’s how I feel. The Rams are a vastly improved team that plays most opponents closely. The Cardinals have an inconsistent quarterback who just experienced a meltdown on Monday night. They don’t have a whole lot going for them and even if they’re playing with motivation on their mind, I just don’t think they’re good enough to win.

Tampa Bay is tied for the best record ATS at 8-3 and that’s a major reason they’ve been a big Doc favorite in the Top 3 all year. We’ve also determined that they’re not good enough to hang with the best teams in the league, and the Falcons certainly fit that bill. The Doc has been anticipating a dropoff for the Falcons at some point because they’ve been playing so well for so many straight weeks and this could be it, but they’re a better team than Tampa Bay and should prove it. Atlanta’s offense has moved the ball steadily against every defense in football and should be able to run it well against the Bucs. Tampa has put up points against weak defenses, but they’ll likely struggle to score against the Falcons.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

NFL Picks Week 12 – Doc Brown Special

With Thursday games becoming the norm, we’re getting our picks out to you early in the week in time for you to fill out your office pool sheet (or whatever it is that you do). Del killed it last week with a 13-3 record, and he’s gone 3-0 in his Top 3 the past two weeks. While Doc Brown wasn’t quite as impressive, he continues to beat the bookies at a steady pace. The Doc is picking at a 56% rate ATS in all games, and an incredible 74% ATS in his Top 3 each week. Try finding a record that impressive anywhere else football betting is done. So the question on your mind has to be … which teams does Doc like this week? Your answers …

The Doc has trusted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers several times this year in his Top 3. They’re one of the best road teams in the league and they’re getting a generous nine points this week. Yes, they do well against teams on their level and crumble against superior opponents (which Baltimore is), but the Ravens’ offense is not designed to blow teams out. Yeah I could see a scenario where Baltimore lets Ray Rice loose, but the Bucs generally stay competitive in games.

The Packers and Falcons are the hottest teams in the league, each having won four in a row. There’s a reason we chose this for the Prime Time Preview — it’s by far the game of the week. I know about Matt Ryan’s home record and how good the Falcons are in the Georgia Dome, but I think the Packers are playing better than anyone right now — just look at their defensive stats. Atlanta’s offense has looked great and unchallenged by their last several opponents. I just think Green Bay’s defense can shut any team’s down, and I think it will be hard for anyone to stop Green Bay’s offense the way Aaron Rodgers is playing. The Falcons are really good, I just really like the way Green Bay has been playing.

People still like the Minnesota Vikings, or at least believe in them. How else can you explain this line being bet down to a pick ‘em some places despite opening as Washington favored by 2.5? Yeah the Redskins threw out a stinker on Monday night, but they responded with a road win at Tennessee. I think they’re a steady squad while Minnesota is a bad team. Brett Favre just is not good this year, and I don’t think that’s changing this week. They may have a resurgence under Leslie Frazier similar to what happened with the Cowboys and Jason Garrett, but I’m not betting on it.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

NFL Picks Week 12 – Del’s Selections

Del set off to enjoy the Patriots-Colts game at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, only to return and discover that he was absolutely dominating with his Week 11 picks.  What do I mean by dominating?  How’s a 13-3 week against the spread sound?  Needless to say, Del has shot back above .500 on the season in the ATS category.  As for the Top 3, Del is only 6-0 the past two weeks with those.  We may not be able to put together many more 13-3 weeks this late in the season, but the goal is for the accuracy to continue.  On to this week’s Top 3.

I like the first game of the week as one of my three best bets this week. There will be a lot of people who believe the Patriots are due for a letdown and are stepping into a trap on Thanksgiving Day, but I think the beating they took in Cleveland will prevent that from happening.  I can’t see Bill Belichick letting his team overlook another lesser opponent the way they did against the Browns.  I feel very comfortable taking the Pats this week only needing a touchdown to cover.

While I admire the Bills for the way they came back against the Bengals to win their second straight game after an 0-8 start, their recent success has made for a friendly spread against the Steelers.  If Cincinnati had hung on to beat Buffalo, the spread for this game would probably be at least 10 points.  Instead, the Bills were able to grind out a win and may be getting too much credit this week.  The Steelers should remind everyone that while Buffalo is a tough team, they’re still not very good.

As for the third pick in the Top 3, I really like Houston -6.5 at home against the Titans.  Jeff Fisher has grown tired of Vince Young, so he’s giving the start to rookie quarterback Rusty Smith.  The Texans are in desperate need of a win and we all know how first-timers usually fare when they’re thrown into the mix mid-season.  Houston’s pass defense is horrible, but the Titans are a distracted team with a rookie quarterback making his first career start.  The Texans should beat them easily.  Good luck to all, have a great Thanksgiving, and — if the spirit moves you — win some money.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

NFL Picks Week 11 – Del’s Selections

Del is getting closer and closer to the .500 mark every week with his picks against the spread, but the Top 3 — a.k.a. the money makers — continue to roll as the weeks go by. If you took it upon yourself to bet any of Del’s Top 3 picks last week, you won. If you decided to put money on all three, you won big as Del was a perfect 3-0 with two teams covering with ease.

As for this week’s Top 3, Green Bay seems like the safest bet. The Vikings looked as bad as ever last week in a loss to the Bears and the Packers are fresh off a bye week looking to bury their division rivals. The oddsmakers are putting way too much stock into the Vikings being at home this week. If this game were in Green Bay, the Packers would be favored by at least 7. With the Vikings’ season essentially over, it shouldn’t make a difference where this one is played.

Another line I like is the Cowboys -6.5 at home. If they were giving up the full touchdown, I may not have made this one of the Top 3. For now, I’m going to buy into the idea that Jason Garrett has played the pride card with this team and convinced them to stop embarrassing themselves. Dallas has plenty of talent at wide receiver and Jon Kitna has the ability to get them the ball. I don’t trust Shaun Hill, and I think the Cowboys will actually show up after proving to themselves they can beat good competition last Sunday.

The third line I like a lot is the Ravens -10.5 against Carolina. Do I need to justify myself when Brian St. Pierre is getting the start for the Panthers? The 30-year-old has thrown five career NFL passes. The Panthers are bad enough as is. This seems like a statement from John Fox that he’s given up on coaching in Carolina.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

NFL Picks Week 11 – Doc Brown Special

It’s been three straight 2-1 weeks for the Doc in the Top 3 picks and the season percentage is still a stellar 74%. If you can’t make money off that, you’re a straight up chump. In fact, the Doc hasn’t had a losing week yet on his Top 3, going 1-1-1 once and then 2-1 or 3-0 every other week, so you now those are a strong play. Sure KC blew up in our face, but the Rams came home strong like we told you they would, and the Bucs were an easy cover over the Panthers. How about this week?

Knowing that you probably need to get your picks in for the Thursday night games, the Doc wanted to get his boards up in time for you. He’s still wrestling over his Top 3 selections but is locked in on the Packers.

Green Bay is coming off the bye week and their defense is getting healthy. They’ve gotten past the injuries that plagued them earlier in the season and their defense looks better than any other in the NFL. Conversely, Minnesota’s offense has been dreadful and it’s pretty clear they’re just not a good team. The Doc loves Green Bay in this one.

The Doc still has not decided on his other Top 3 picks. He really likes Oakland +7 at Pittsburgh, Buffalo +5.5 at Cincinnati, Detroit +6.5 at Dallas, and Baltimore -10.5 at Carolina. Make sure to check back frequently for updates on the picks including more analysis on games and the final word on the Top 3. More analysis of the picks after the chart.

UPDATE: The Doc has only locked in Green Bay -3 this week. He has recommended a full play on the Packers and half plays on Oakland +7, Buffalo +6, Detroit +7, and Baltimore -10.5, but he could not decide which two of the other four he likes for his Top 3.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

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NFL Picks Week 10 – Del’s Selections

As Doc Brown mentioned when he posted his picks and analysis yesterday, Christmas cometh early for all you football fans out there looking to make a buck or just take in some Thursday Night Football at a local Hooters because you don’t have the NFL Network.  We’ll be posting our picks a day early from here on in, and Del’s hoping that will help get him above .500 ATS.  Two out of the last three weeks have been rough, so we’re hoping the early start will get Del going quickly for week 10.

Those of you who have been banking on Doc and Del’s Top 3 all season (and winning money if you have been) should be excited this week as Doc and Del agree on two of their Top 3. The first is Tampa Bay.  They’re at home against one of the worst teams in the NFL and still aren’t favored by a full 7 points.  For some reason, the Bucs can’t get any respect.  Tampa Bay’s reputation is overshadowing its success this season, which I’m sure is just fine by the team.  Sure, they lost to the Falcons as many of us expected they would, but most people expected them to get blown out on the road.  They had a chance to win and came up just short.  Tampa should beat the Panthers by at least two touchdowns.

The other pick Del and Doc agree on is the Rams +6 against the Niners.  This is the same type of situation that the Bucs are in.  For some reason, nobody want wants to believe that a team that won six games over the past three seasons can turn it around.  On top of that, everyone had high expectations for San Francisco coming into 2010 so they’re waiting for them to bust out.  If you came into the year thinking the Rams would be terrible again — you were wrong.  If you thought the Niners were a playoff contender — you were wrong about that, too.  Don’t let preseason expectations blur your vision.  It’s already week 10.

As for Del’s other Top 3 pick, I like the Pats getting 4.5 on Sunday night in Pittsburgh.  With a healthy offensive line, I think these two teams were evenly matched.  The Steelers offensive line is hurting badly, however.  We tend to overlook injuries to the O-line because it doesn’t consist of “skill players.”  The guys in the trenches just as important, and I think Vegas is overlooking that aspect of this game.  Guard Chris Kemoeatu hasn’t practiced with knee and ankle injuries and left tackle Max Starks was just placed on IR.  Any offensive line position is difficult to fill, but it’s crucial for a right-handed passer to have confidence in his left tackle.  I think Pittsburgh’s offensive line issues will be a factor and New England wins this game outright.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)