NFL Picks Week 10 – Doc Brown Special

Luckily for NFL fans we get our fix earlier than usual this week — there is a game on Thursday night (a reminder to get your picks in earlier than usual). We’d all be watching on Thursday night regardless of the teams, but it’s hard not to get excited about Baltimore visiting Atlanta. They are two of the best teams in the NFL, both 6-2, and they each have an excellent shot at the Super Bowl. Picking a winner there wasn’t easy, nor is it easy with all the other games.

The Doc is now picking at 55.4% against the spread this year and 59% straight up. The best news of all is what’s going on with the Top 3. The Doc has nailed 74% of his Top 3 this year making the model of going 2-1 each week to earn money an absolute gem. Here are The Doc’s Top 3 for week 10:

I’m taking Tampa Bay and laying the 6.5. Make sure you get them giving 6.5 and not 7, as a touchdown win would result in a push instead of a win. This really is a bet against the inept Carolina Panthers and Jimmy Clausen who has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Carolina just placed Jeff Otah and Dan Connor on injured reserve, and their top two running backs are missing. The Bucs meanwhile seem to play well against inferior opponents. I absolutely love this matchup.

The Doc is going with the Rams +6 against the Niners. When I first saw the line I honestly thought it was a mistake. I still am waiting for someone to explain to me how the 49ers are favored by six points against anyone. Even if San Francisco were up 21-0 in the fourth quarter against the Bills and favored by six I still wouldn’t bet on them. St. Louis’ defense is very solid and I have a lot of faith in Sam Bradford to get at least two touchdowns on the board. That’s enough to ensure they cover. If the Rams don’t cover this line, I don’t know anything about football.

I also like the Chiefs -1 at the Broncos. I never thought Denver was as bad as they looked giving up 59 to the Raiders, but then they went out and lost to the Niners the following weekend. They’re not a bad team, but it will take more than that to beat Kansas City. The Chiefs let me down losing to the Raiders but they played well on a sloppy field and had the lead several times. Their pass defense can give Kyle Orton problems and from there, Denver’s ground game will struggle. I like the Chiefs in a near pick ‘em game. Analysis on all the games to follow.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

[Read more...]

NFL Picks Week 9 – Del’s Selections

It’s about time.  After a rough couple weeks, Del was able to get back on track last week and post a respectable 8-5 ATS and 9-4 SU.  He’s still sitting at a game below .500 for the season ATS, but it’s nice to enjoy a solid week after quite the drought.  Most importantly, the Top 3 came in at 2-1 once again, proving those are still the picks you should bank on if you’re taking our advice.  Let’s have a look at this week’s Top 3.

I love the Jets on the road this week in Detroit, only laying four points.  Getting shutout by the Packers at home last Sunday could not have felt good for Rex Ryan’s squad.  The Lions may be resilient, but that doesn’t mean they’re very good.  The Jets’ defense should be able to force Matthew Stafford into making a few mistakes and their offense should be playing with a chip on its shoulder.  I expect them to win by at least a touchdown.

Another team I like is the Texans at home getting 3 points.  They may have the worst pass defense in the league, but the Chargers have the most banged-up passing attack in the league.  Antonio Gates is reportedly battling injuries to both his feet and I doubt he’ll be himself if he’s able to go.  Malcom Floyd is out once again and Vincent Jackson is not yet eligible to play.  There should be a lot of scoring in this one, but Houston should be able to win in a shootout in front of their home crowd after a tough loss to the Colts on Monday night.

The third team I’m high on this week after their victory against the Steelers is the Saints.  Like Doc Brown said, Carolina hung with New Orleans earlier in the year and that’s deterring a lot of people from taking them laying almost a full 7.  Their passing game seems to be clicking and their defense showed plenty of life against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. They should beat a poor Panthers team easily this time around.  More analysis after the picks.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

[Read more...]

NFL Picks Week 9 – Doc Brown Special

Last week was somewhat of a struggle for Doc Brown who went 6-7 ATS and 7-6 SU. The good news is his Top 3 went 2-1, keeping the season percentage at 75%. Now that’s what you should be banking on when you peep the picks each week. Full analysis of this week’s games is after the picks chart, but here are some thoughts on the Top 3 picks.

One of the first games to which I gravitated was the Bears at the Bills. Chicago is laying 2.5 points which doesn’t seem like too much. The strength of this team is defense, and I expect the Bills to struggle scoring against the D. Chicago’s offense is the major question mark. Jay Cutler has been throwing picks as if he can hit a million dollar bonus by getting to 30 on the year. Their offense has been brutal and that’s because of their inability to protect the quarterback. What makes me believe this game will be different is that Buffalo’s pass rush isn’t nearly as potent as Seattle’s or Washington’s. I think the Bears will be able to protect Cutler and score enough points to cover in Toronto.

I’ve been big on the Dolphins all year. Their defense is extremely underrated and one of the better units in the league. I think this will be a game of field goals and very close, coming down to the final five minutes of the game. Baltimore can come out on top, but it will be by a slim margin.

Drew Brees may or may not be playing with a knee injury, but it doesn’t matter. He looked great in the second half last week against Pittsburgh and seems to have turned the corner. Carolina may have played them tough before, but they’re one of the worst teams in football. I think the Saints will look like the team on display last weekend and annihilate the weakened Panthers. Analysis on the rest of the games following the picks chart.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

[Read more...]

NFL Picks Week 8 – Del’s Selections

This is getting ugly.  Del has dipped below .500 with his supposed expert picks and desparately needs a bounce back week with Doc Brown slowly pulling away.  The good news is the Top 3 are still looking fairly decent at 11-6-1, so that’s what you should be focusing on for now if you’re risking any dough on these selections.  If you like banking on Doc’s and Del’s overlapping picks, it turns out you’ve got nine to choose from this week.  Good luck.

For my Top 3 I like St. Louis, Denver, and Tampa Bay.  The Rams know the NFC West is wide open and I think they’ll be able to take advantage of some of the poor teams they play the rest of the way to remain in the hunt.  The Panthers, who barely got by the 49ers last week to win their first game of the season, are one of those teams.  I can’t see Carolina winning two straight and I can’t see Sam Bradford and company losing to them at home.

Although the game is in London and the long journey makes the game tougher to predict, I love Denver this week.  There may not be a team in the NFL that wants to win worse than the Broncos this week after being embarrassed by the Raiders at home last Sunday.  The Niners are also starting Troy Smith, who may be capable but has thrown only 89 career NFL passes.

Tampa Bay rounds out my Top 3 for the week at Arizona.  The Bucs are a team that is slowly gaining confidence and learning to trust their young quarterback.  Freeman has shown he can step up late in games.  On the flip side, Arizona is still starting rookie Max Hall again, only this time he’ll be playing after suffering a concussion this past weekend.  He has enough to worry about already.  Playing with an injury isn’t going to help.  More analysis after the jump.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

[Read more...]

NFL Picks Week 8 – Doc Brown Special

Week 7 was the first time the Doc struggled against the spread, and fittingly it was the same week he said the lines were difficult because of inconsistent teams. This week the Doc has a much better feel for the lines and is radiating with confidence. The Doc would also like to take the opportunity to remind you that his Top 3 picks of the week are now coming through at 76.5% which will make you cash anywhere.

Let’s start off going over the Top 3 picks (you can read more analysis on the rest of the games below). I’ve liked the Dolphins the entire year. They have a very good defense and had Pittsburgh on the ropes last weekend before a bad call screwed them. Their offense is steady but not spectacular, yet it’s capable of scoring points. They’re a much better team than the Bengals.

Just like Miami, I’ve loved Pittsburgh all year. It’s just not New Orleans’ season and they’re no longer getting the takeaways they did last year on defense. The Steelers’ offense and defense is strong. I pick them with confidence until they prove me otherwise.

I had Tampa Bay as one of my locks last week and they let me down, but they did pull off a 4th quarter comeback to win straight up. I think I have them well figured out; they can’t hang with teams better than them, but they do very well against opponents on their level. Arizona is certainly on their level, and Max Hall is showing why he went undrafted. I’m just hoping Derek Anderson doesn’t enter the game and heroically lead Arizona to a comeback. The Bucs are 2-0 on the road and they should make it 3-0 behind underrated quarterback Josh Freeman who’s best known as Mr. Comeback.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

[Read more...]

NFL Week 7 Picks – Del’s Selections

Doc Brown said it best when he posted his expert picks on Thursday — we have no idea what to expect from some of these teams after six weeks.  When it’s this obvious that so many teams have yet to discover their identities, how are we supposed to pick the games?  Factor in the spread and we can understand why the house always wins.  In any event, the experts here at LBS have had to put in some overtime hours to bring you our Week 7 Picks, so with a little genius and a lot of luck it will hopefully pay off.

Starting at the top, the 13-point spread for the Cleveland-New Orleans game seemed like a lot at first, but then I envisioned Colt McCoy in a rowdy Louisiana Superdome and it wasn’t pretty.  The Saints had a coming out party against the Bucs last weekend and I think that will continue against the Browns.  I also went with Kansas City despite the intense spread against Jacksonville.  The Chiefs need to get back in the win column and the Jaguars are likely going to start Todd Bouman, as if they didn’t look horrendous enough against the Titans on Monday night.

The Titans-Eagles game was one that I struggled a lot with.  Both teams are playing well as of late, but I’m giving the edge to Kevin Kolb.  I’m not a believer in Kerry Collins or Vince Young, and I think the Eagles have a far superior defense.  I think the bye week will benefit the Bengals some, as they needed to get their passing game on track.  The Falcons are coming off a tough loss to the Eagles last weekend and could be a little worn out.  More expert commentary after the jump.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

[Read more...]

NFL Week 7 Picks – Doc Brown Special

As the NFL season marches on, it appears as if we know less and less about the teams. The Saints lose one week and win by a blowout the next. The Jags win two in a row then lose in a blowout the next. The Rams get hammered 44-6 by the Lions and then beat the Chargers at home. Who can predict some of these outcomes with all the erratic performances? It’s not easy for anyone, and even true geniuses like the Doc is having a tough time. But the Doc has been been busting his butt all week and looking into the oracle to find some strong picks for you. Let’s start with the top three.

Colt McCoy actually played well against the Steelers last week. The Browns had good field position and their defense isn’t completely embarrassing. The Saints haven’t been world beaters (until last weekend), and if there’s one thing Cleveland can do it’s keep a game reasonable. They just can’t fall behind early the way the Bucs did.

Speaking of the Bucs, I think this sets up as a nice bounce-back week for them. They can’t hang with the best teams in the league but they do fine against opponents their own size. Being on the road and outdoors will hurt the Rams who have been ravaged by receiver injuries.

We’ve talked about the Bears allowing Jay Cutler to get beat up this year. Think that will change when they face Brian Orakpo at home? Skins will get Albert Haynesworth involved too and that will help them pressure the quarterback. It will be two good defenses, and I like Washington’s chances of scoring points more than Chicago’s. More analysis after the picks chart.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

[Read more...]