NCAA Tournament tips for picking your March Madness brackets
FIRST ROUND
– Don’t pick any 15 or 16 seeds to win (they’re a combined 4-216)
– Pick at least one 13 or 14 seed to win (they’ve combined to win 18% of first-round games)
– Pick 9 seeds to beat 8 seeds (they’re six games over .500 vs. 8 seeds)
SECOND ROUND
– Pick No. 1 seeds to reach the Sweet 16 (88% of them make it)
– Advance 10 and 12 seed to the Sweet 16 (they win 2nd round games about half the time)
– Don’t pick teams seeded below 12 to reach Sweet 16 (only 6 of 432 teams (1.4%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12)
SWEET 16
– 72% of No. 1 seeds reach the Elite 8, so pick 3 to make it
– Don’t put a team seeded lower than 11 in the Elite 8 (only 1 has reached it)
A few other really good notes to keep in mind:
– Only 6 times since 1979 have two 1 seeds made the finals
– Teams seeded lower than 8 hardly reach the Final Four (only 3 of 108 teams have)
– Only one team seeded lower than 6 has reached the championship game
There will always be exceptions to these stats, but they provide an excellent guideline for making your picks.