I’ve often called “Bracketology” a farce because automatic qualifiers and overall records make it easy enough for most sports fans to correctly predict at least 60 of the 68 NCAA Tournament teams. Even though that is the case, ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi did an excellent job with his predictions, and we must recognize that.
Lunardi correctly picked 67 of the 68 tournament teams, missing only by picking Seton Hall instead of Iona.
He got the seed right for 35 of the 68 teams (51%).
He either got the seed or was off by one for 61 of the 68 teams (90%). That may be where the real expertise lies. Of the seven he missed, he was only off by two seeds for six. Seton Hall he missed because he had them in the tournament.
Teams Lunardi overvalued
Florida as a 5, they were a 7
Memphis as 6, they were 8
Harvard as 10, they were 12
BYU as 12, they were 14
Teams Lunardi undervalued
Cincinnati as 8, they were 6
NC St. as 13, they were 11
Below is a seed-by-seed breakdown of how accurate his picks were:
1 seeds – 4-4
2 seeds – 4-4
3 seeds – 3-4 (had Michigan over Florida St.)
4 seeds – 3-4 (had Florida St. instead of Mich)
5 seeds – 2-4 (had Murray St. and Florida over New Mexico and Temple)
6 seeds – 0-4 (had UNM, ND, Mem, Temple over UNLV, Cincy, SDSU, Murray St.)
7 seeds – 1-4 (got St. Mary’s right, had SDSU, Creighton, UNLV over Gonzaga, ND, Florida)
8 seeds – 1-4 (got Kansas State right, had UConn, Gonzaga, Cincy instead of Memphis, Creighton, Iowa St.)
9 seeds – 2-4 (got St. Louis, Bama had Virginia, Iowa St. instead of UConn, Southern Miss)
10 seeds – 2-4 (got Purdue, West Va., had Southern Miss and Harvard over Xavier, Virginia)
11 seeds – 1-4 (got Texas, had Cal, Xavier, VCU over CSU, NC St., Colorado)
12 seeds – 2-5 (got USF and LBSU, had =Colorado, BYU, CSU instead of Cal, Harvard, VCU)
13 seeds – 1-5 (got Ohio, had St. Bonaventure, South Dakota St., NC St., Seton Hall over New Mexico St., Montana, Davidson)
14 seeds – 1-4 (got Belmont, had Davidson, Montana, New Mex. St. instead S. Dakota St., BYU/Iona, St. Bonaventure)
15 seeds – 3-4 (got Detroit, Loyola-MD., Lehigh, had Long Island instead of Norfolk St.)
16 seeds – 5-6 (got Miss. Valley St./Western Ky., Vermont, Lamar, UNC Ash., had Norfolk St. instead of Long Island)Google+