NFL Week 12 expert picks against the spread – Del’s picks

Del had one of his worst weeks of the season with a 5-9 record against the spread in Week 11. Fortunately, there was once again a silver lining. Del went 2-0 in his top picks, which are the ones he would be putting his money on if (cough, cough) he was a gambler. Del is now 18-9 in his top picks this season. Doc and Del are 32-13 combined.

Hopefully Week 12 will be a bounce-back week. Here are Del’s Week 12 NFL Picks, with analysis of the top picks after the sheet.

Though he really can’t explain it in detail, Del simply doesn’t believe in the Browns. On the contrary, he feels great about Matt Ryan and the Falcons anytime they play at home. The Browns looked surprisingly bad at home last weekend against a Texans team that had Ryan Mallett making his first career NFL start. They will now go on the road to face a team that somehow sits atop the NFC South despite its 4-6 record. The Falcons will be plenty motivated, which should be enough to help them pick up a win at home. UPDATE: Del still doesn’t believe in the Browns, but there are too many red flags surrounding this game to keep Atlanta as a top pick. Julio Jones has missed practice this week with an illness, and Josh Gordon is a full go for Cleveland. I’ll stick with the pick, but it’s no longer a lock this week.

Del is also expecting a huge bounce-back week for the Broncos, who fell victim to a shocking upset against the Rams last week. To make matters worse, the Patriots beat the Colts. New England is now a game up on Denver for the top seed in the AFC and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. With the way the Pats are playing, the Broncos will likely have to win out if they want a chance at the top seed and home field advantage throughout the postseason. Injuries to Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas could create some obstacles for Peyton Manning, but I don’t think it will matter. The Dolphins shouldn’t be able to keep up on offense after making the cross-country flight.

First time reader of Del’s picks on LBS? Well, let me let you in on a little secret. Del never — and I mean NEVER — bets against Drew Brees and the Saints when they’re at home in a primetime game. There’s really no analysis needed. New Orleans always seems to light it up when they’re at home on Sunday or Monday night. They’ve blown out bad and good teams too many times in that spot to pick against them. Lock it up.