As promised, both Doc Brown and Del got back on track with their Week 3 picks after a somewhat disappointing Week 2. The Doc killed it with a 10-6 record against the spread and Del wasn’t far behind at 9-7. More importantly, the resident experts here at LBS were a combined 3-0 in their locks of the week. Del is now 5-1-1 on the season in the money-making picks, for those keeping track at home.
Let’s keep it rolling into Week 4. We mentioned last week how there were a lot of close spreads, and this week is quite the opposite. There are plenty of mismatches across the league, which can often make games even more difficult to pick. We’ll do our best.
Here are Del’s Week 4 NFL picks, with analysis after the sheet.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
While the Jets aren’t exactly an AFC powerhouse just yet, picking up their first win of the season as a road underdog was huge for the Eagles. Had they gone to 0-3, the wheels very well could have come off completely. Instead, the convincing win should allow Philadelphia to take some momentum into a divisional game against the Redskins. If you read this feature regularly, you know I’m not a Kirk Cousins fan. That isn’t going to change this week simply because the Eagles have a weak defense. Cousins has a tendency to turn the ball over, and there’s no reason to think that trend will stop. Washington will also be without starting cornerback DeAngelo Hall, who suffered a toe injury in last week’s game. Chip Kelly loves moving the ball through the air, and his team should be able to do enough of that to cover a 3-point spread.
The Cardinals are easily the most underrated 3-0 team in the NFL. Sure, they haven’t really played any tough opponents in the Saints, Bears and 49ers, but good teams win games they are supposed to win. Arizona has done that with ease, blowing out San Francisco last week and doing the same to Chicago on the road the week before. People underestimate how much Carson Palmer means to this team. The Cardinals have won 16 of the last 18 games he has started. Are the Rams — a team that lost at home to the Steelers last weekend after Ben Roethlisberger left with an injury — going to stop him from making it 17 out of 19? I doubt it, and 6.5 points doesn’t sound like much to lay.
Some notes on other games: It feels like the Packers should be a 14-point favorite over the Niners, which leads to me to believe Vegas knows something we don’t. This is a textbook letdown spot for Green Bay coming off two big wins in primetime at home. They won’t lose, but I could easily see them coming out flat and winning a relatively close game.
With Andrew Luck not throwing in practice this week because of a shoulder injury, 9 points is a scary number for the Colts. If for some reason Luck ends up not playing, I’d like the Jaguars to cover that number.
UPDATE: Andrew Luck has been ruled out, so Del switched to the Jaguars.
