6) Lance McCullers, Houston Astros
McCullers has always been a good pitcher, but injury and control problems have limited his upside in the past. In fact, he is currently on the disabled list with a back issue, so he has not completely conquered that first demon. He appears to have handled the second, though — he walked five batters per nine innings in 2016, and has slashed that to 2.7 in 2017.
McCullers has done it all without compromising on his strikeouts. They’ve dropped a bit, but 89 in 76.2 innings is still nothing to sneeze at, and he has become an immensely capable Robin to Dallas Keuchel’s Batman.
In 13 starts so far in 2017, McCullers is 6-1, getting ground balls 63 percent of the time, and limiting opposing hitters to a .205 average. That is a lethal combination.
7) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Given all the hype and hoopla surrounding him when he was drafted and debuted, Strasburg almost feels like a disappointment at this point. That’s wildly unfair to him, as he’s still one of baseball’s best pitchers — just not the all-conquering ace that it once looked like he may become.
An ace is still an ace, though.
Strasburg has put together another strong season, with a 3.27 ERA backed by 99 strikeouts in 85.1 innings. He’s still constantly tweaking due to occasional bouts of inconsistency and, more importantly, thanks to injury problems that cost him last year’s postseason. As long as he continues to look for new ways to pitch better and more efficiently, there’s a chance he actually improves. He is still, after all, only 28.
8) Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
Greinke is back to normal after a down year in 2016. His strikeout rate has actually jumped to what is currently a career high, as he’s fanned 100 in 84.1 innings. The walk rate, which took an uncharacteristic and unwelcome leap last season, is back below two. The ERA, while not as low as it was in his best seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, is a perfectly respectable 3.20. In other words, Greinke is Greinke again.
Will we once again see Greinke posting ERAs in the 2 range like he was with the Dodgers? Probably not. He’s pitching in a tougher ballpark for pitchers now, and at 33 years old, his best years are behind him.
Greinke does have the benefit of experience now, though, and the cerebral right-hander knows how to get hitters out with more than just pure stuff. As long as he stays healthy, he should have a few more successful years ahead of him.
9) Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals
Vargas is in pretty much the same boat as Santana is. His ERA is actually a tiny bit lower at 2.18, and he’s been better at striking out batters (7.14 K/9) and limiting walks (2.06 BB/9). His BABIP is a much more normal .282, indicating that his success is a bit less fluky than Santana’s has been.
Vargas is still a surprise though. At 34, he’s been in the majors for over a decade and was a valuable part of the Royals’ World Series-winning team. But his career record of 75-73 and ERA of 4.06 shows a pitcher who has been steady but not super during his career.
Vargas does not blow people away and relies on keeping hitters off balance to get them out. Notably, he doesn’t get a ton of ground balls, yet has kept his home run rate below league average, which may not last forever. He, too, may be due for some regression — but there’s no denying what he has managed to accomplish so far.
10) Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins
Santana is a big part of the reason that the Twins are exceeding expectations considerably. Few in baseball are pitching better than he is. He’s won eight games and has put together a 2.20 ERA in 13 starts so far, good for third in the American League.
So why don’t we have him ranked higher? Santana’s underlying numbers indicate a bit of luck.
He walks 3.3 batters per nine, more than anyone else on this list, and only strikes out 6.3 per nine. He’s been exceptionally fortunate on balls in play, with a .154 BABIP. His FIP is over two runs higher than his ERA, sitting at 4.46.
Santana has been huge for the Twins so far, and has definitely earned his place on this list. There is a chance, however, that a fair bit of regression is in his future.
