Spring Training is officially upon us, which means the 2017 MLB regular season is right around the corner. And while it’s still relatively early, it’s never so early that we can’t look ahead to some potential award winners.
Much will change between now and the end of the season. There will be surprises galore because there always are, but early expectations are already being set. And after a few wild Rookie of the Year races in 2016, it only seems appropriate that we begin there.
Here’s a look at three qualifying rookies in each league who could win the Rookie of the Year honors.
American League
3. Aaron Judge (outfielder, New York Yankees)
The Yankees, and several scouts from around baseball, view the 6-foot-7 Aaron Judge as an athletic freak of nature. And during his brief 84 at bats in 2016, it was easy to see why. He has monstrous natural power, but was significantly lacking in the patience department.
After striking out 42 times last season, Judge is back in 2017 with a renewed sense of selectivity at the plate, some new footwork and better all-around balance — both figuratively and literally.
Coming into Spring Training, the writing was on the wall for the 25-year-old rookie: the right field job is yours to win (or lose), and consistency will be required for you to keep it. Accordingly, Judge tapped into his unparalleled work ethic and early on, it appears to be paying off. He’s impressed in Spring Training thus far, is being more selective at the plate, and hasn’t lost a touch of his impressive power.
Early projections have Judge at 30-plus home runs and 80-plus RBI, which should help improve his OPS and WAR, but he’ll need to work hard on raising that .179 batting average if he wants to win AL Rookie of the Year.
2. Jharel Cotton (pitcher, Oakland Athletics)
Unlike some of the other players on this list, pitcher Jharel Cotton didn’t arrive in Major League Baseball with lofty expectations. He wasn’t considered a top prospect after being selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 20th round of the 2012 MLB Draft, but now finds himself in an ideal situation in Oakland.
Cotton will compete to secure the No. 4 spot in Oakland’s rotation, and is already considered an early front-runner to lock it up in Spring Training.
In his non-qualifying rookie campaign a season ago, Cotton allowed a WHIP of only 0.82 in 29.1 innings, limiting opposing batters to .185 batting average, while relying on his plus-changeup to generate a swinging strike percentage of nearly 18, which was four points higher than the MLB average.
Along with his four-seam fastball and an opportunity to start every five days, Cotton is positioned to not only make a difference on the back-end of Oakland’s starting rotation, but also to push for the AL Rookie of the Year award.
1. Andrew Benintendi (outfielder, Boston Red Sox)
The absolute odds-on favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, Andrew Benintendi has climbed the baseball ranks faster than some players blink.
The seventh overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, Benintendi quickly rose through the minor leagues, splitting time in High and Double-A before being called up to the Big Leagues in August of last year. He then went on a tear, hitting .295/.359/.476 with two home runs and 14 RBIs in 105 at-bats.
The non-qualifying experience will provide Benintendi with an added bonus going into the 2017 season, where he hopes to become a Boston mainstay. He sports better-than-average poise at the plate, speed and defense. And while he’s not necessarily considered a power guy, his bat can also generate a little pop now and again.
Considered by some to be the best prospect in all of baseball, Benintendi and his Red Sox teammates feel he’s completely ready to dominate on the national stage.
National League
3. Tyler Glasnow (pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates)
This position would have been designated for St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Alex Reyes, but instead he’ll be undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2017 season. As a result, Tyler Glasnow gets the nod.
Glasnow, considered the Pirates’ top pitching prospect, had a rough MLB debut a season ago, struggling with control and nerves en route to an 0-2 finish, which included four starts and three relief appearances. He finished his non-qualifying rookie campaign with a 4.24 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 13 walks over 23.1 innings.
Despite some of his struggles last season, the overriding belief with Glasnow is that if he simply trusts his stuff, he can be as dominant as anyone else in the NL. And while there have still been some issues with his control in Spring Training, he is moving full steam ahead in a battle for a spot in the rotation.
If the 6-foot-8 right-hander can get himself under control, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be in the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year. His 2.03 ERA and 11.61 K/9 rate during his career as a minor leaguer certainly suggest he will be.
2. Hunter Renfroe (outfielder, San Diego Padres)
Hunter Renfroe is a name baseball fans will likely be familiar with by the time the All-Star break rolls around.
Currently an under-the-radar candidate, the widely held belief is that Renfroe, who batted .371/.389/.800 in 11 games last season, will erupt onto the scene and over-perform for an otherwise under-performing team in 2017. And in the small slice of sample size he provided in the majors last year, he belted four home runs and drove in 14 RBIs in 35 at-bats.
Even with little fanfare, scouts, players and managers were well aware of Renfroe’s potential game-changing power in 2016, which yielded an intentional base on balls in his first big league at-bat. Let that sink in.
Not only does Renfroe sport game-changing power, but he’s got a decent eye and patience at the plate that are beyond his years. He averaged only 74 strikeouts per 162 games based on extrapolated data, which puts him in line to see a couple good pitches per at-bat.
The one thing likely to hold Renfroe back is playing for a rebuilding Padres team, but if he can display the same sort of power that netted him 34 combined home runs last season, he’ll receive a warranted amount of attention.
1. Dansby Swanson (shortstop, Atlanta Braves)
Similar to Boston’s Andrew Benintendi in the AL, Atlanta shortstop Dansby Swanson should be considered the odds-on favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Coming from the No. 1-ranked farm system in Major League Baseball, Swanson already had some hype attached to his name when called up a season ago. And it immediately became obvious why so many drooled over him, as Swanson went on to hit .302/.361/.442 with three home runs and 17 RBIs in 129 at-bats.
Interestingly, Swanson only qualifies as a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2017 because he came up one at-bat short of reaching the 130 at bat qualifier a year ago. So he literally enters the season with the maximum amount of MLB experience to still qualify as a rookie, which will undoubtedly serve him well.
The top overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, Swanson is polished for a rookie and has all the tools necessary to succeed at the highest level. In watching him play, it’s no surprise he’s often likened to New York Yankees legend Derek Jeter.
