Expert NCAA Tournament bracket picks: Grey’s 2017 March Madness selections

Predicting the NCAA Tournament is a total crapshoot. It’s a series of educated guesses, and one bad one can ruin the entire thing. But isn’t that the fun of it? All the research and study and statistical analysis in the world, and you can still lose to someone who picks based on uniform colors and cool nicknames – which I have, several times. (Hi, mom!)

I sat down to do this without having any idea who I was going to pick as my champion, because I think it just works better that way. Would it be Villanova, the defending champs and No. 1 overall tournament seed? What about one-loss Gonzaga, who have played at an elite level all year but not necessarily against the best competition? Ultimately, a lot was determined by matchups and potential stumbling blocks. I was ultimately a bit surprised by how chalky my bracket turned out to be given the lack of standout elite teams in the college ranks this year.

I ultimately went with Sean Miller’s Arizona Wildcats, and I have to admit I wasn’t expecting to do so when I started my bracket. I was swayed by their elite athleticism, strong perimeter defense, and a matchup nightmare in forward Lauri Markkanen. They have a difficult path to the title, but I think they’ll be able to navigate it with enough in the tank to reach the Final Four and then cut down the nets.

Will this bracket blow up in my face by the end of the first weekend? Well, yeah, probably. I could honestly see this tournament spawning a ton of upsets, both early and late, that I’m simply not feeling bold enough to predict. But that’s the joy of it. So without further ado, from the guy whose champion was knocked out of the tournament on day two last year – thanks, Sparty – here are my expert picks for the entire 2017 NCAA Tournament.

You can see my full 2017 NCAA Tournament brackets below, with analysis of each region after the screenshots (click to enlarge each bracket half)

Midwest Region

There are several teams I like in this region, but a few of them got a really bad draw. Michigan in particular stands out. In my mind, they’re underseeded, and are saddled with a brutal second-round match-up against Louisville that might be too much for them. Had then been a 6, they easily could have pushed their way into the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight somewhere. I like Rhode Island to wreak some havoc in this region as well. Oregon will suffer from the loss of Chris Boucher to a season-ending ACL injury, and this Rhode Island team — which had very high expectations before the season started — is turning into a healthy, well-oiled machine at the right time.

Otherwise, this region is pretty chalky to me. I don’t have all the faith in the world in Kansas, but Josh Jackson and Frank Mason are the most talented combo in this region. Michigan State could theoretically pose a challenge if they get that far, but they haven’t really played to their potential at any point this season. Caleb Swanigan and Purdue would be tough, as would Rick Pinito’s Louisville, but Kansas has the most talent in the region, and I’m sticking to that.

West Region

To Gonzaga or not to Gonzaga? That is the question, as it is seemingly every year. The Bulldogs are always talented, but it’s hard to tell just how talented they are, as they don’t really get the opportunity to test themselves against elite opposition in the West Coast Conference. Behind the frontcourt-backcourt combo of Przemek Karnowski and Nigel Williams-Goss, they are absolutely good enough to reach the Final Four, but I’ve grown to be a fan of Sean Miller’s Arizona squad. Allonzo Trier and Kadeem Allen are really good — Trier in particular is a standout at both ends, and Lauri Markkanen is a match-up nightmare who rebounds and shoots over 40 percent from beyond the arc. I’ve got them winning the region — and the title — though a word for St. Mary’s, who could have made a lot of noise in this tournament with a more forgiving match-up.

I’m also a fan of Notre Dame, and a potential game against West Virginia would be a lot of fun. Bob Huggins’ famous “Press Virginia” will try to get Notre Dame to turn the ball over, but the Irish are very good at avoiding just that. Princeton will be a dark horse upset pick, but I like the Irish, who have been playing well lately, to make it to the Sweet Sixteen before falling to the Zags.

East Region

This is where I’m predicting a bit of chaos. UNC-Wilmington is a really strong mid-major facing off against a Virginia squad that I feel is vulnerable to an upset. Florida also looks like a possible upset victim, as they’ve struggled since starting center John Egbunu tore his ACL in February, ending his season prematurely. They’re up against a strong mid-major in East Tennessee State, and I could see that section getting a bit crazy quickly. UNC-Wilmington is my pick for a Sweet Sixteen berth – though they’re vulnerable to a strong frontcourt, they have guards that can play with anyone.

I’m also a huge fan of Tim Jankovich’s small-balling SMU team, which enters the tournament having won 30 games behind an elite defense, strong rebounding, and an efficient offense that can shoot the three. I like them to upend Baylor and shock a Duke team that, while playing extremely well right now, has demonstrated a repeated tendency to disappear and underwhelm at certain points of the season. There’s always one big upset a couple rounds in where a 1 or a 2 seed goes down, and I’m feeling this one.

Ultimately, though, I think this region belongs to Villanova. They’re tournament-tested and have consistently been one of the best teams in the game all year long, and Josh Hart will lead his team to a second straight Final Four.

South Region

First thing’s first: I feel really badly for Wichita State, the eighth best team in America if you like the KenPom methodology, being sentenced to a tough first-round game against Archie Miller’s Dayton and then a possible date with John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats in the second round. They could have gone far in another regional.

As it is, though, may we be so lucky to witness the possible Kentucky vs. UCLA game, because it may end up being the game of the tournament. It would match up two teams who love to run and score, and I can’t imagine there being a more entertaining matchup anywhere else in the bracket. Calipari is a better coach than Steve Alford, but Lonzo Ball will be the best player on the floor, and I like the Bruins to advance there. As a sidenote, Kentucky, UCLA, and North Carolina in the same regional? That’s some elite company.

It is ultimately North Carolina’s region to lose in my mind. Their frontcourt is capable of bludgeoning lesser opponents, and the likes of Butler and UCLA won’t be able to stack up – though UNC/UCLA would be an incredible spectacle. In my mind, though, it’s going to be another Final Four for Roy Williams’s crew, as well as another appearance in the title game.