This stat shows history is not on Patrick Reed’s side

Patrick Reed is entering the weekend as the leader at the Masters following 36 holes, but history may not be on his side.

Reed shot a 6-under 66 on Friday to make him 9-under for the tournament. He leads Marc Leishman by two strokes and Henrik Stenson by four. Several other accomplished golfers are looming on the leaderboard.

So, what are Reed’s chances to make it through the weekend as the champion? Not too good, according to history.

ESPN’s Chris Fallica shared this tweet, which states that Reed is the fourth player to lead the Masters by exactly two strokes after 36 holes, among players who have never previously won a major. None of the other three went on to win the tournament.

Patrick Reed is the 4th player to hold the 36-hole lead at the Masters by exactly 2 shots that had not yet won a major. None of the previous 3 went on to win and the 3 shot a combined 16-over par on the weekend (Rory 2011, Rose 2004, DiMarco 2001)

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) April 7, 2018

Chris DiMarco in 2001 shot par in the third round and two over in the fourth, and he finished tied for 10th. In 2004, Justin Rose blew up with an 81 in the third round and shot 71 in the final round. He finished tied for 22nd. In 2011, Rory McIlroy maintained his lead through three rounds, but he shot a final round 80 to finish tied for 15th.

Nobody is saying that Reed can’t win, he would just have to buck a trend in order to do so.