Football season is finally here and I couldn’t be more ecstatic. We had a feeling the season would start on time despite the lockout but we’re no less thrilled that the NFL is finally back. With that in mind, I knew for the last several weeks that I would have to provide predictions for the upcoming season.
Football is so difficult to predict. Injuries affect every team and can alter picks heavily. Teams rarely repeat as Super Bowl champions and the parity in the league is incredible. Knowing all this, I still kept coming back to one thought about the season: Why won’t the Chargers win it all this year?
What we’ve learned over the last handful of years is that teams don’t have to have “been there before” in order to succeed. The Packers won the Super Bowl last year after making a first-round playoff exit the year before. In 2009, the Saints won the Super Bowl after going 8-8 the previous season. The Chargers went 9-7 and missed the playoffs last season. I think this is the year they take the next step and win it all.
Here are Doc Brown’s picks for the 2011 NFL season:
AFC EAST
1. New York Jets: Their defense is good. Really good. They have Darrelle Revis ready to start the season unlike last year when he missed camp because of his holdout. They should be in tip-top form like usual. Mark Sanchez has another year of experience and while I don’t love him, he is surrounded by plenty of talent and has plenty of protection. The big reason I give them the nod in the division is because they seem to have Tom Brady’s number. They know how to pressure him and make his life difficult, so that should give them at least a split head-to-head.
2. New England Patriots: The Pats had a great finish to the regular season last year before bowing out against the Jets. Some defenses have the capability to lock them up by crowding the secondary and forcing short stuff the way the Jets did, while others don’t (see Pittsburgh). Tom Brady played out of his mind in the second half of the year and I simply can’t envision him being that sharp again. Still, they have an excellent passing attack and two fantastic weapons in their tight ends. They should win double-digit games again.
3. Miami Dolphins: Many people expected a playoff appearance from this team before they flopped last season. I never had confidence in quarterback Chad Henne, but I always felt they had an underrated defense. I still think their defense is pretty good, but I still don’t like Henne. He and his interceptions will continue to limit the offense’s ability to win games. Plus, their running game appears to be worse off than last year without Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams. Better than 7-9 should not be expected.
4. Buffalo Bills: A turnaround is expected in Buffalo but those who are thinking “surprise team” are delusional. Marcell Dareus was a great draft pick and they’ve added some players to the defense, but let’s not confuse this group for the ’85 Bears. They still have weaknesses in their secondary, but hopefully they’ll be able to get to the quarterback quickly. Buffalo’s big problems still come on offense. Last season Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns. I honestly didn’t know he had that in him. Clearly their offense can put up some yards under Chan Gailey, but will they be able to move the ball early in games, or only late after they’re already down? With that porous offensive line, my hopes are not high.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens: Despite what Ryan Clark says, the Ravens had the Steelers on the ropes a few times last season. Their defense may be getting older, but Ray Lewis and Ed Reed still played like studs last year. I think they have another good season left in them. As for the offense, I think it’s only getting better. Adding Lee Evans was key to give them a deep threat. Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson should be nice options for Joe Flacco, and I think Ray Rice is going to have a monster season. I like the Ravens a lot this year.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers making the playoffs seems to be one of the annual locks in the NFL. They’re darn consistent and I won’t count them out. However, James Harrison’s offseason surgery leaves me concerned. He’s not fully recovered from back surgery, and let’s not forget that he’s a Defensive Player of the Year. If he’s only at 75%, that’s a big loss. My biggest concern with Pittsburgh is their secondary. We saw the Patriots and Packers shred them last year. Teams that have very good passing attacks can beat Pittsburgh; I don’t think that changes.
3. Cleveland Browns: Some people are picking Cleveland as a sleeper team this year. It’s easy to see why. Their schedule appears to be soft and many people view Colt McCoy as a winner. I’m starting to come around on him though I don’t see him leading a team to the playoffs yet. The strength in Cleveland is their offensive line and that’s part of the reason Peyton Hillis had a successful year. As for their defense, they had a strong year last season but melted down week 17. I think that’s more of who they are than the shutdown team they appeared to be before that. Plus, losing Rob Ryan and his schemes won’t help. I think that will be their weakness.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: They might be the worst team in football and it couldn’t happen to a nicer owner. Losing Johnathan Joseph in free agency won’t help their defense and starting Andy Dalton won’t help their offense. I don’t think they’ll be dreadful like Carolina last season, but topping four wins will be a challenge.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans: This is the year they finally get over the hump. It’s not that I think the Texans are a spectacular team ready to win a Super Bowl title, but they really are just the last man standing. Matt Schaub came back to earth after a breakout 2009 season, but with Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson healthy, the passing game should do well. Even if Arian Foster’s hamstring continues to be a problem, I have full confidence their running game won’t skip a beat with Derrick Ward and Ben Tate filling in. The big issue in Houston always is on the defensive side. They had the worst pass defense in the NFL last season by a wide margin. Bringing in Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator was ingenious, and the Johnathan Joseph signing should help them. They’re not about to set the world on fire, but they’re the best team in the division.
2. Tennessee Titans: They kind of get this spot by default. I don’t believe in Matt Hasselbeck as a playoff quarterback because of all the back injuries he’s suffered, but he’s good enough to keep them competitive. Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt are special weapons on offense and should be able to make enough plays to help them win games. Between Michael Griffith, Cortland Finnegan, Akeem Ayers, and Barrett Ruud, they have some playmakers on defense.
3. Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning had another neck surgery and is likely done for the season. So are they. Kerry Collins is not the answer and neither is Curtis Painter. They still have some talent — namely Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark — but getting the ball to them is the hard part. Hey, at least they still have a good pass rush. 7-9 is doable for this team even without Peyton.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cutting David Garrard is a sign that they’re giving up on the season. It’s not that Garrard is something great, because he’s not. He has some good games and some bad games and is generally decent. They weren’t going to the playoffs with him but they’re not even a .500 team without him. Luke McCown and Blaine Gabbert? Good luck. I liked some of the defensive additions they made (Paul Posluszny, Dawan Landry), but the improvement won’t be noticeable without an offense that can score. Turnovers and poor field position will doom what could be a decent defense.
AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers: Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for them last season. They fumbled more than the Boom Goes the Dynamite guy reading highlights. They gave up special teams touchdowns as if they received pay bonuses for doing so. They weren’t at full strength last year because A.J. Smith played hardball with Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson who held out. Having both men in camp will make a big difference. Their offense should be high scoring, the defense should be steady, and I like them to win the Super Bowl.
2. Oakland Raiders: As much as we rip on the Raiders around here, they’ve actually put together a respectable offense. Their running game is one of the better ones in football. Teams that are stout against the run (like Pittsburgh) will dominate them, but they can compete with everyone else. Their defense takes a hit without Nnamdi Asomugha, but they still have some decent talent. Picking them to finish second in the division doesn’t mean we’re anticipating big things, it means the rest of the division still stinks.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: They were my breakout team last season and didn’t disappoint, going from 4-12 to 10-6. Matt Cassel was excellent and I expect a dropoff. He was dreadful in the preseason and may already have a cracked rib. He was never much of a deep passer, instead relying on short passes that put the ball in the hands of his playmakers. Their defense is full of talented athletes, but you can beat them by running towards the left side of their defense. They also have a difficult second half schedule against teams like the Steelers, Patriots, Jets, and Packers. That should be enough to keep them out of the playoffs.
4. Denver Broncos: They turned into a walking disaster last year and Josh McDaniels was deservedly fired. Their offense will go more conservative with John Fox as head coach, and I actually think Knowshon Moreno will do well for him, but they’re missing a gamebreaker offensively. Defensively they have some good players and added two new guys in Von Miller and Rahim Moore. My concerns are that D.J. Williams is already hurt, and that Elvis Dumervil is coming back from surgery. I think this team will be respectable week-in and week-out, but they won’t win too many games.
Wild Card Winners: Patriots, Steelers
AFC Championship Game: Chargers over Jets
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles: I’m not “all-in” with this team, but it’s pretty hard to ignore the talent added to an already good team. Forget the offense, let’s start with the defense where they have three of the best corners in the league. How will you pass on them? They have a good defensive line rotation with Trent Cole, Juqua Parker, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin. They’ll need those guys to stuff the run, take up blockers, and get to the quarterback because their linebackers are not good. That will be the team’s weakness. Their offense has a lot of playmakers but I have some reservations. Can their offensive line keep the pocket from collapsing quickly? I don’t think so. Will Mike Vick be as accurate of a passer as he was last season? Probably not. But he still can run and he still is dangerous. They have some weaknesses that can be exploited, but they’re better than most teams by a wide margin.
2. New York Giants: I like this team. They have good lines on both sides of the ball and they’re loaded with talent. Their running game is good, their receiving options are endless, and Eli Manning won’t throw 25 interceptions again. Their fans have bitched about losing Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, but I’m not worried. Their losses that will really hurt are Terrell Thomas and Prince Amukamara. If they weren’t out for the year, I might have picked them to win the division.
3. Dallas Cowboys: Felix Jones, Dez Bryant, yadda yadda yadda. Jerry Jones is always hyping this team up. They’re America’s team. They have fantasy weapons galore. But I still don’t like their offensive line. It’s a weakness that will get exploited by the Giants and Eagles. They have some talent defensively but they lost a good coach in Wade Phillips. Their secondary also gives me great concern. They’re not a bad team, but they’re not a good team. Don’t believe the hype.
4. Washington Redskins: I’ve never liked Rex Grossman and I don’t think he’ll last long as the team’s starting quarterback. They’ll probably be better off with John Beck. I like their defense and believe it’s a very solid unit. Any Mike Shanahan offense will score points. They’re not a dreadful team, but standing out in this division will be tough. Still, I’m not as down on the Skins as most people are.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers: We all saw how good they are last year. Their defense was phenomenal. Aaron Rodgers was a stud. Their passing game is off the hook. They get Jermichael Finley back and should be every bit as potent offensively as last year. Barring injuries, the defense should be very good. They’ll remain an elite team but will feel a push from opposing teams who will want to beat the defending champs.
2. Detroit Lions: This is a team on the way up. I’m buying the Lions and think they’re a year away from being a Super Bowl contender. Their offense will light up the scoreboard and their defense will surprise people. Stephen Tulloch should help shore up their linebacking corps. Ndamukong Suh might be the biggest defensive force in football. Again, I’m not raising their Super Bowl flag yet, but I think they will be a very good team this year.
3. Chicago Bears: It’s the same old story for the Bears. Good defense and bad offense. Their defense was good enough to help take them to the NFC title game last year. Jay Cutler got hurt and left the game early and they couldn’t beat the Packers. Their defense should keep them in most games but their offense won’t be good enough to win em. Jay Cutler is not a franchise quarterback, and I think very little of their offensive specialists. They’re still a strong team, but not a special one.
4. Minnesota Vikings: They went all-in on Brett Favre a few years ago and came close to reaching the Super Bowl. Now it’s back to the bad times in Minnesota. Donovan McNabb played poorly last season in a quarterback-friendly offense. Minnesota still has a pretty good line and some playmakers in Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian, but McNabb caps their upside. Their defense is pretty good but not great. There isn’t much to be excited about in Minnesota, and that includes Christian Ponder.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints: You can’t go wrong with Drew Brees at quarterback, and I love the addition of Mark Ingram. He’s going to be one of the better running backs in the league. They added Shaun Rogers to the defensive line and he can be a difference-maker. I love Malcolm Jenkins and think he’s a star on the rise. The Saints have very few weaknesses and continue to be one of the NFL’s elite teams.
2. Atlanta Falcons: Thomas Dimitroff went all-in on Julio Jones at the draft. They’re planning to open up the offense and spread the ball around. With Roddy White, Jones, and Harry Douglas, they should be able to do that. Ray Edwards was a nice addition to their defense, but I would have like to see them improve their secondary after getting torched by the Packers in the playoffs. They should be able to outscore most teams, but that’s a risky style to play.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They really stunned me by becoming so good so quickly. Their defense was improved and Josh Freeman took them to a competitive level. Can he do it again? It’s possible. He didn’t play well enough in the first three quarters of games to give his team a lead so he had to bail them out in the fourth quarter. Their ability to score in the first few possessions of games will dictate whether they can compete with the big boys. I like this team but feel they’re due for somewhat of a setback. It also doesn’t help that two of the best teams in the league are in their division.
4. Carolina Panthers: They won’t be as bad as last year, at least they have that going for them. I don’t like betting on rookie quarterbacks on bad teams so I wouldn’t expect more than five wins for them, if that. Cam Newton is a long ways away from quarterbacking a winning team, but his ability to make plays should help them convert third downs and sustain drives much better than Jimmy Clausen would. Their linebackers are pretty good, but I’m not a fan of their front four or secondary. This team remains in bad shape.
NFC WEST
1. St. Louis Rams: Their early schedule won’t do them any favors, but they should be up for the challenge. They have a good quarterback and that gives them more direction than any other team in the division. Sam Bradford will work with Josh McDaniels who by all accounts can coordinate a good passing game. Steven Jackson has another year left in him, and their offense line is pretty good. I like the Quintin Mikell addition to their defense and feel it will be a strength of the team. They’re the only squad from the division on the way up, and though they won’t run away with it, 8-8 is enough to take the crown.
2. Arizona Cardinals: They have a very opportunistic defense that can make plays. Adrian Wilson, Kerry Rhodes, and Patrick Peterson will help them shut down passing games while making interceptions. LaRod Stephens Howling gives them a nice weapon on special teams. The big issue with them was their pathetic offense. It was beyond terrible. Kevin Kolb is no star, but he’s still much better than anything they trotted out there last year. He’ll struggle against good defenses and look good against bad ones. They’re probably about a .500 team and will likely finish a game below St. Louis.
3. Seattle Seahawks: I cannot stress how bad Tarvaris Jackson is. Even Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, and Mike Williams won’t be able to help him. The right side of their offensive line is brutal. Russell Okung isn’t much better. They’ll need a lot of big plays from Earl Thomas and Leon Washington to stay in games and I don’t see that happening. The playoffs were an aberration; this is more of a 5-6 win team.
4. San Francisco 49ers: If they weren’t going with Alex Smith at quarterback, I might have had them higher in the standings. He and T-Jack are two of the worst quarterbacks in the league. At least Smith is able to pull a play out of his butt every once in a while and he has some weapons in Vernon Davis and Braylon Edwards. Their defense is pretty good, but will the offense score enough to spare them? Jim Harbaugh needs to get the offensive line on point after they stunk it up in the preseason. I don’t know if that’s possible.
Wild Card Winners: Falcons, Giants
NFC Championship Game: Eagles over Falcons
Super Bowl: Chargers over Eagles
Individual Awards
Offensive Player of the Year: Calvin Johnson
Defensive Player of the Year: Ndamukong Suh
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Ingram
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Peterson
Coach of the Year: Jim Schwartz
