You want the good news or the bad news first? Fine, we’ll start with the bad. Del’s locks of the week struggled again in Week 9. We should have never switched from the Giants to the Steelers, but that’s what happens when you go against your gut. We need to start piling up some wins with the money-making picks, as 8-9-1 is by no means up to Del’s standards.
Now, for the good news. Del posted another winning week overall in Week 9, going 7-6 against the spread. That bumps the season total up to 71-58 ATS, which is a number most Vegas handicappers would be satisfied with. We’ll look to keep it going in Week 10.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
The only game that jumped out at Del this week is the Broncos at home against the Chiefs. The reason this could be a huge mistake is that Andy Reid is known for his amazing 10-4 record against the spread coming off a bye, but we’re willing to ignore that trend this week. The Broncos have the best defense in the NFL, and they have to be very motivated coming off a tough loss to the Colts. With Jamaal Charles out for the season, Kansas City doesn’t have many weapons on offense. I can’t see them scoring many points against this defense on the road. Denver should win by at least a touchdown and get back on track.
Some other notes: We all know Del loves picking the Pats, but Tom Coughlin has been one of the only coaches in the NFL who seems to game-plan well for Bill Belichick and company. If the Giants can’t put pressure on Tom Brady, their secondary will get carved up. But with Jason Pierre-Paul now having another week to get back into game shape, we wouldn’t rule out New York generating some pass rush. Patriots should win but don’t be surprised if its closer than you think.
It’s hard to pick the Packers to cover an 11.5-point spread with the way they are playing, but I still feel they are going to get it going at some point. A home game against the lowly Lions could be just what Aaron Rodgers needs. Eddie Lacy has been a colossal bust this season, which is why Green Bay has named James Starks the starter. Either Starks will take the job and run with it, or Lacy will finally wake up. Either one should result in a big win for the Packers.
Am I really picking the Texans on the road? Yes. Why? Because covering back-to-back double-digit spreads in the NFL is hard enough, let alone doing it in consecutive primetime slots. The undefeated Bengals should keep rolling, but I like Houston to get inside the number.
