No playoff contender is flawless. 14 MLB teams are above .500 and sitting in the midst of a division or wild card race. Nearly half the teams in the league are involved in the pennant race this year, and all of them have some issues that could upend them either in September or October. Some issues are obvious, while some can’t be controlled, like injuries or inconsistency.
Here’s a look at every contending team, and what could prove to be their fatal flaw down the stretch.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona Diamondbacks — Back of the bullpen
Do you trust Fernando Rodney in a big spot? The Diamondbacks do, and he has 32 saves, but the veteran reliever is a notoriously shaky figure. Despite his solid save numbers, his 4.53 ERA is the second-worst mark in the Arizona bullpen among relievers who have thrown at least 20 innings. Only mopup man T.J. McFarland has been worse. Rodney can get the job done, but you can never be completely sure what you’re going to get from him when you send him out there. In a tight playoff game, it might be heart-in-throat time.
Chicago Cubs — Rotation consistency
The Cubs still have all the pieces in place to make a big run in October, but the big difference between the 2016 juggernaut and the 2017 team that has comparatively slogged has been the starting rotation. Jon Lester and John Lackey have both seem their ERAs rise above 4, and after a strong start, trade acquisition Jose Quintana has struggled to settle in. Injuries haven’t helped at all, either. If the Cubs can get Jake Arrieta, Quintana, Lester, and Kyle Hendricks pitching consistently well, they have every chance in October. Rotation consistency is the key, and they haven’t gotten it yet.
Colorado Rockies — Pitching
Colorado’s grip on their second wild card spot has grown more tenuous after an 11-14 August, and the pitching staff shoulders most of the blame. Such is life in Colorado, where Coors Field tends to have this sort of impact on people. Kyle Freeland is the only starting pitcher with a sub-4 ERA, and even that’s deceiving, as his WHIP sits at 1.40. Even worse, their previously remarkable bullpen has been shaky lately, with closer Greg Holland giving up 14 runs in his last 7.1 innings pitched. The Rockies have to stop the bleeding or they may find themselves in a real dogfight for a wild card spot that looked to be comfortably theirs a month ago.
Los Angeles Dodgers — Health
It feels like injuries are pretty much the only thing that can trip up the Dodgers at this point. From top to bottom, their roster is incredibly deep, talented, and flexible. They have depth in spades; this is a team that had the luxury of sending Joc Pederson to AAA in the middle of a pennant race because they picked up Curtis Granderson in an August trade. They just need to stay healthy. Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, and Alex Wood, the team’s top three starters, have all recently spent time on the disabled list, though Kershaw is on his way back and the other two did not have serious injuries.
Milwaukee Brewers — Offense
The Brewers don’t have a single .300 hitter as they try to stay in the playoff race. The pitching has carried them thus far, but the offense needs to pick up the slack. It’s an oversimplification to say the team can’t hit. They have the second-most home runs in the National League — but they’re extremely reliant on the long ball and do not hit for a high average. That trait is epitomized by early-season hero Eric Thames, who has 28 home runs but a modest .239 average. The team’s .320 OBP is 11th in the NL. Home run teams are generally boom or bust, and that could cost Milwaukee down the stretch.
Washington Nationals — Pitching depth
They have the best offense in the NL (measured by OPS) and three elite starting pitchers to lead them into October. And after the team aggressively worked to solve their bullpen issues at the trade deadline, the Nationals have filled most of their holes. What they can’t afford is an injury, as the Nationals have little in the way of pitching depth. If any starter goes down, it’s trouble. Their bullpen is extremely reliant on new acquisitions Sean Doolittle, Brandon Kintzler, and Ryan Madson, and they can ill afford to lose any of them. Washington is in good position, but the one thing to watch his health, as guys like Stephen Strasburg, Doolittle, and Madson have injury histories.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Baltimore Orioles — Starting pitching
It’s something of a miracle that the Orioles have even managed to pull themselves back up into the AL Wild Card race. The sad thing is that, as good as their offense and bullpen have been, a competent starting rotation would have them in the midst of a race for the AL East title. Instead, they have the second-worst ERA in the American League, largely because of their starters — only Dylan Bundy’s ERA is below 4.50. Their starting pitching is likely too late to fix now, and that will likely sink their wild card aspirations.
Boston Red Sox — Starting pitching
Now that Rafael Devers seems to be providing the third base help the Red Sox desperately needed, attention turns to their starting rotation. There is no way that this should be an issue; Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello looked like one of the AL’s premier trios at the start of the season. Only Sale has lived up to expectations. Price has had recurring elbow problems, and Porcello has followed up a Cy Young season with a 4.57 ERA and 15 losses. Drew Pomeranz has been a huge help, with his 3.23 ERA, but it’s safe to say the rotation hasn’t lived up to expectation. Only Sale would make them feel confident in the playoffs.
Cleveland Indians — Health
The Indians rank highly in most statistical categories, and frankly, their biggest issue is getting everyone healthy. Several key regulars are out of the lineup as Cleveland marches toward a second consecutive AL Central crown. Outfielder Michael Brantley is likely out until September, as is second baseman Jason Kipnis. Outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall has missed time as well. While Andrew Miller’s prognosis is good, the reliever has pitched sparingly since the end of July because of recurring knee issues. Starting pitcher Danny Salazar is dealing with elbow issues as well. These are all important players to Cleveland, and if they can get back healthy and play to their capability, the Indians may get back to the World Series.
Houston Astros — Starting pitching
Dallas Keuchel is great, but the Astros have had depth issues beyond him. Lance McCullers is the team’s second best starter, and he currently finds himself on the disabled list with back issues. Houston needs McCullers healthy, and they need to find a third starter who can offer them strong, reliable innings, be it Charlie Morton, Mike Fiers, or someone else. There’s a reason the Astros have been repeatedly linked to Justin Verlander.
Los Angeles Angels — Offense
The Angels’ pitching staff has been surprisingly effective, which has helped the team become a surprise entrant in the AL Wild Card festivities. The problem, however, is that Mike Trout constitutes pretty much the club’s entire offense. Trout is having another MVP-caliber season, but he’s the only Angels player with an OPS over .800. Guys like Andrelton Simmons and Yunel Escobar, who both hit for a decent average, don’t really have any power. Guys like Albert Pujols, who still has some power left in his bat, simply don’t hit for average. It’s a difficult balancing act. If the Angels can get a bit more hitting, they can actually pull this off, but they can’t put the entire offense on Trout’s shoulders.
Minnesota Twins — Pitching
Minnesota actually bought, then sold, at the July 31 trade deadline. Jaime Garcia was a Twin for all of one start before being shipped off to the Yankees, with the Twins feeling they were falling out of contention. They’re still here, but after trading Garcia and former closer Brandon Kintzler, they find themselves in a bit of a bind. Their pitching staff is very weak, extremely reliant on Ervin Santana and youngster Jose Berrios. That might not be enough to get them to October, and they may be regretting their snap decision to sell.
New York Yankees — Youth
There are inherent risks to building a contending ballclub around young players. Young players are dynamic, exciting, and exceptionally talented, but they can also be prone to inconsistency and, especially with regard to pitchers, their workloads must be monitored closely. That is more or less what is happening to the Yankees. For now, Aaron Judge has lost the magic that made him the story of the first half. Gary Sanchez is still more or less learning how to catch. Luis Severino, comfortably the team’s best pitcher, has never thrown this many innings in one season before, and it’s only August. Joe Girardi has to manage all this and find a way to get this club to the playoffs, though the team still has a solid chance to do so.
Seattle Mariners — Starting pitching
The Mariners have had a long history of being offensively challenged at Safeco Field, but they are actually hitting for a decent average in 2017. The reason they’re on the periphery of the wild card race is their starting pitching. James Paxton has been their best starter, but he has a long history of injuries that have struck again, though he should be back for the stretch run. Felix Hernandez simply isn’t the ace he was anymore, while Yovani Gallardo and Ariel Miranda have offered little in the way of consistency. They’ll need to be better in September if they want to make the playoffs.
