10 biggest storylines for first round of NCAA Tournament
6. 12 seeds looking to pull upsets
Every year the bracket prognosticators have their eyes on 12 seeds in the first round, with upsets in mind. Historically, that is a good call. 46 teams seeded 12th have pulled the upset, amazingly matching the same number and percentage of 11 seeds to pull the same feat. Statistically, that works out to about 35 percent, meaning at least one of four should win this weekend, if not more.
This season’s crop is ripe for the picking. Middle Tennessee will be the most popular pick, after a great season in Conference USA and a reputation for giant killing, with last year’s upset of Michigan State under its belt. The Blue Raiders are no joke, with multiple wins over power conference foes and multiple wins over tournament teams. JaCorey Williams, an Arkansas transfer, is the real deal, and Giddy Potts is as hot a shooter as you’ll find.
Elsewhere, UNC-Wilmington will be able to challenge Virginia. Big man Devontae Cacok leads the entire nation in offensive rating, true shooting, effective field goal, and 2-point shooting percentages. He is wildly efficient inside, opening up tons of driving lanes for his teammates. The Seahawks offense is a relentless attack, ready for the vaunted Virginia defense.
Princeton rolled through the Ivy League without a loss, and will now be meeting Notre Dame on Thursday. Throw away every stereotype about a Princeton team you’ve got. Sure, they play smart on offense, but the Tigers have the athletes to compete with anyone.
Finally, Nevada will travel east with a real shot to beat Big XII Tournament champ Iowa State. A one-two punch of Marcus Marshall and Cameron Oliver is as scary a duo as you could expect from a 12th seeded mid-major. Those two Nevada stars average a combined 36 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists. Keeping them fenced in will be a tall task for the Cyclones.
7. The Lonzo Ball Show
The stand-out freshman guard may have played his worst game of the season for UCLA in the Pac-12 championship. The broadcast crew harped on a jammed thumb he suffered in the first half as a reason or excuse for his poor play.
Since then, Lonzo’s dad has continued to talk about shoe contracts and building a family dynasty (Lonzo’s two younger brothers are also headed to UCLA). It has all added up to distractions and more pressure than needed for a freshman in his first tournament.
Presumably, UCLA will beat Kent State easily, though it will be worthwhile to keep an eye on Lonzo Ball throughout the game. If his hand features even the slightest splint, tape, or band-aid, we’re certain to hear about it for the rest of the weekend. If he looks sluggish or disengaged, people will jump on his mental mindset.
For UCLA to make a Final Four run, Lonzo Ball needs to play like an All-American, without the mess potentially surrounding him.
8. What will we see from Wisconsin and Michigan State?
The two Big Ten standbys both went through incredibly rocky and unpredictable regular seasons. Any guess as to their performance in this tournament is a total shot in the dark.
Wisconsin looked like a Final Four team in early February. The Badgers were 21-3, with big wins and a stable of stars to rely on in the clutch. Over their next six games, however, the Badgers lost five times. Three came on the road, and the fourth was a home loss to tourney team Northwestern. The fifth loss was a last second heartbreaker against Iowa.
No matter the explanation, Wisconsin was in a bona-fide funk. The Badgers bounced back to an extent, topping Minnesota to close the regular season and then reaching the Big Ten Tournament final. Now Wisconsin is faced with a solid Virginia Tech team, and the roller coaster of a season could end or take another turn.
Michigan State, meanwhile, has been even sloppier. After starting the season highly ranked, the Spartans fell to 12-9 in late January. Some bounce back wins earn Sparty a tournament bid, but Tom Izzo’s team has felt like an odd mix of freshman youth and veteran stalwarts all season. Even though the pieces have yet to fall into place, the Spartans are talented enough to beat anyone, and Tom Izzo is a March miracle man.
9. Gonzaga vs. Mike Daum
The best player in this tournament whom you’ve never heard of is South Dakota State sophomore Mike Daum.
The big man has been dominant in his second year on campus, averaging 25.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per contest. If you don’t believe me, ask Fort Wayne. In two meetings with the Mastodons, Daum averaged 46.5 points and 12.5 rebounds. He’s got the body to pound inside and a shooting stroke that’s good for 41 percent from outside the arc.
Now he’ll face his toughest test this season, by far: Gonzaga’s frontline.
Mark Few has three big men who will all likely tangle with Daum at some point on Thursday. Przemek Karnoswki is a 7-foot-1 giant polar bear who can physically challenge Daum in the paint. Johnathan Williams is an athletic freak, with a wingspan and vertical leap that will bother any opponent. Zach Collins is a 7-foot future first-round pick, with a perfect combo of athleticism and fundamentals.
If you need a good reason to watch a one seed battle a 16, this is your answer. Those three bigs will attack and battle Mike Daum for 40 minutes. His efforts to still put points on the board will be a sight to see.
10. An intriguing Florida showdown
When the brackets are revealed, casual fans and the media love to jump out and claim conspiracy theories when two rivals or nearby foes are paired. In reality, the committee is driven by geographic decisions; every team is placed at the nearest possible site location from their campus.
The perfect example this year comes with Florida State meeting Florida Gulf Coast in Orlando, Florida.
Though the two schools haven’t developed a rivalry of any kind in the years since the “Dunk City” days, the two schools are located 315 miles apart. They will meet in the middle for a game that will feature flashes of athleticism, speed, and high flying finishes.
The Eagles likely don’t have the talent to top the Seminoles, though they will put forth quite the effort.
Shane McNichol covers college basketball for Larry Brown Sports. He also blogs about college basketball and the NBA at Palestra Back and has contributed to Rush The Court, ESPN.com, and USA Today Sports Weekly. Follow him on Twitter @OnTheShaneTrain.
