One of the most exciting times during the sports calendar is finally here. Conference tournaments have concluded, the Selection Sunday show is over, and it’s now time to start filling out those brackets for the NCAA Tournament.
First though, there is a lot to digest from the brackets being revealed.
Who got snubbed? Who has difficult paths? Who might be able to pull off upsets? We answer all of those questions.
Here are the 10 biggest takeaways from the NCAA Tournament bracket reveal.
1. Number one seeds were just as expected
Before the conference tournaments began, conventional wisdom said the four top spots had already been decided. No matter what happened, most figured we’d see the four teams we expected atop their regions: Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, and Gonzaga.
Then the 24 hour news cycle took over and everyone started feeling a little shifty. Maybe Duke had earned a spot? Maybe Arizona would be No. 1 out West?
Turns out the committee wasn’t interested and stuck with the four teams expected to be on the top line. They gave Villanova the top overall spot, followed by Kansas, North Carolina, and then Gonzaga.
2. Wichita State highlights seeding surprises
In an entire bracket of 68 teams, some teams are certainly going to end up on a higher or lower line that expected. This year, Wichita State stands out as the most egregious mistake by the committee.
The Shockers were given a 10 seed in the South Region, despite being beloved by advanced metrics. Ken Pomeroy’s rankings rate Wichita State as the 8th best team in the country. ESPN’s BPI isn’t far behind with the Shockers at 15th best in the nation.
Wichita State as a 10 seed isn’t fair to Wichita State, nor the teams in its bracket, like Dayton, Kentucky, and UCLA.
As for a team receiving too high of a seed, look no further than Louisville.
The Cardinals have lost 3 of their last five, but still were ranked the No. 8 overall team by the tournament committee. They received the No. 2 seed in the South Region and ended up seeded ahead of teams with strong resumes like UCLA, Baylor, and Oregon.
3. Oregon affected by injury
Speaking of Oregon, the Ducks likely dropped a seed line when news broke that starting forward Chris Boucher tore his ACL and would miss the rest of the season.
Boucher brought Oregon a unique set of skills, combining rim protection and 3-point shooting to make the Ducks one of the Pac-12’s best teams.
Once Boucher’s fate was revealed, the committee changed the Ducks seed a tad, as they generally do. They gave the Ducks a No. 3 seed in the South Region and had them as the No. 9 team overall.
This could mean Oregon has been underseeded and will overcome Boucher’s injury or his absence will be significant and Oregon is wildly overseeed. Hindsight may dictate the narrative for this Oregon seeding. One positive development is that the Ducks will play their first two games in Sacramento, which is relatively close to their home in Eugene.
4. The committee punted on the Big Ten
The Big Ten Conference had a weird season, with no elite teams and several disappointing campaigns from expected contenders. Purdue, the league’s regular season champion, was placed as a four seed. Minnesota was listed as a five seed.
The other five teams from the conference to reach the Big Dance were placed between six and nine seed lines.
Michigan, which won the Big Ten tournament, got a 7-seed in the South Region. Wisconsin, which had a disappointing finish to the conference regular season but reached the conference tournament championship game, received an 8-seed, which incensed Frank Kaminsky.
The committee essentially looked at the logjam in the Big Ten and shoved it right into the bracket. Look for those five teams to under or over-perform in March, sorting out what the committee didn’t.
5. Villanova may have the toughest road to the Final Four
The defending champions won the Big East regular season and tournament titles and were given the top overall seed in the bracket. It was a nice prize for a deserving team.
Then the committee’s bracket laid a gauntlet out in front of the Wildcats.
Duke is as talented and tough two seed as we’ll ever see. Baylor was a top-three ranked team for months this season. Florida is the second-best team in the SEC and has been solid all season. Virginia already gave Villanova a tough test in a classic game this season. SMU is one of the most under-seeded teams in this year’s bracket after a fantastic season in the AAC.
The East is a beast, and Villanova will need to scratch and claw through a brutal stretch to reach the Fnal Four.
