The NCAA Tournament field has been narrowed to 16, leaving us with some high-profile matchups that should be very exciting. Chalk has been the name of the game in this tournament so far, and while the lack of upsets is a bit of a letdown in some ways, it does ensure that the nation’s top teams will be battling it out late in the tournament, which has the potential to lead to some really great games.
So what storylines are worth watching this weekend? Here are eight of the biggest Sweet 16 storylines.
1. Clashes of the heavyweights
A bracket as chalky as this one is going to end up being heavy on power conference foes, and that is exactly what happened to this year’s Tournament. With the exception of the AAC’s Houston Cougars and the WCC’s Gonzaga Bulldogs, the Sweet 16 is entirely an event for what college football would call the Power Five.
Inevitably, the setup is leading to conference clashes, with ACC rivals Duke and Virginia Tech set to square off for a spot in the Elite Eight. Overall, people may not like chalk, but it leads to tantalizingly good heavyweight battles later on in the tournament. That is what we have here.
2. Big Ten and SEC flex their muscle
The ACC’s top-heavy dominance does not come as a huge shock, but there are other conferences impressing in the NCAA Tournament. Everyone knew the Big Ten was deep during the regular season, but that depth had a way of ensuring that a lot of its teams ground each other down and played a conference schedule that was essentially a battle of attrition. Now, however, we see the benefits of that depth. The conference’s top three schools have all advanced to the Sweet 16, with both Michigan and Michigan State favored to win their next games, while Purdue is only considered a slight underdog against Tennessee.
And speaking of Tennessee, it’s been a good tournament for the sometimes-maligned SEC as well. Kentucky has made their traditional run, but they’re joined by the Volunteers, LSU Tigers, Auburn Tigers in the Sweet 16, with Auburn looking especially impressive in a dismantling of Kansas. The SEC must be thrilled that an all-conference regional final is on the table between Auburn and Kentucky, though it would require a Tigers upset of North Carolina.
3. Michigan-Texas Tech will be a brilliantly competitive slog
If you enjoy defensive basketball, Michigan and Texas Tech will be appointment viewing. According to kenpom.com, these two teams are one and two in the country in defensive efficiency, with the Red Raiders ranking slightly ahead of the Wolverines. Both win games with an uncompromising defense that’s hard to break down, which means this one should be an enormous defensive struggle.
It may well come down to who can execute their offense better. Statistically, the Wolverines are slightly better in that department, which may give them an edge. But the Texas Tech defense is a tough one to face. Expect a tight, low-scoring battle in this one that should please the purists.
4. Duke presses on with a blueprint to beat them in public domain
The world may have already known it, but UCF demonstrated how Duke will lose in the NCAA Tournament if it does happen: the paint will be clogged and a Blue Devils team that doesn’t shoot from the perimeter particularly well will brick their way to an exit. Duke actually shot decently in their win over UCF, but were still pushed to the brink by their lack of consistent outside scoring.
Obviously, if it were so easy, Duke would have lost a lot more, so it remains to be seen if Virginia Tech can make lightning strike again. They have beaten Duke once this season, and in Kerry Blackshear, the Hokies have a big body they can put in the paint. Whether he can contain Zion Williamson is the key question. Virginia Tech has a chance, but they’ll have to execute and play perfectly.
5. Tennessee faces a team that can punish their lack of focus
The Volunteers probably should have posted two emphatic wins to open their NCAA Tournament run, but instead they came away looking shaky. Big advantages evaporated quickly against less-talented foes, with Colgate making a game of it in the second half and Iowa forcing overtime after trailing by 25 in the first half, albeit with a bit of help from some poor officiating. Both ended up as single-digit wins for the Volunteers after looking like blowouts initially.
The Purdue Boilermakers are more talented than either of those teams, and as Villanova can attest, they’re capable of shooting the lights out. Any complacency that seeps into Tennessee’s game could be punished much more permanently. The Volunteers need 40 consistent minutes to win this game, and that means no slip-ups like we saw in their opening weekend performances.
6. Gonzaga looks for a different outcome in their Florida State rematch
Last season, an unheralded Florida State team knocked Gonzaga out of the NCAA Tournament at this stage with an emphatic 15-point victory. This year, the two teams rematch in slightly different circumstances. Gonzaga is a one seed and favored, but the Seminoles are a four seed that everyone is taking much more seriously this time around.
Gonzaga is perhaps better poised to win this game a year later, with Killian Tillie expected to play a role and Rui Hachimura more advanced than he was a year ago. Florida State still has the talent and athleticism to bother this Gonzaga team. Expect a much closer game than last year’s — one that should be very exciting and competitive.
7. Tony Bennett is finally poised to return to the Elite Eight
For all his regular season success, Tony Bennett has only taken the Virginia Cavaliers to the Elite Eight once since taking over the program. No disrespect to the Oregon Ducks, who are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, but Bennett should get his second attempt this weekend. After their very shaky start against Gardner-Webb, the Cavaliers look more relaxed and capable of a deep run after suffocating the Oklahoma Sooners out of the tournament in round two.
Their potential Elite Eight matchups are both more challenging, and they’ll have to be at their best to make it to that elusive Final Four, but given where they stand, this may be the best chance they’ve had yet.
8. Hot-shooting Auburn poses a real test to the Tar Heels
Yes, the Kansas Jayhawks were very short-handed this March, but that doesn’t make Auburn’s 89-75 dismantling — a game they led by 26 points at halftime — any less impressive. After a first-round scare, the Tigers seem to have hit their stride and come in very hot after winning the SEC Tournament title and keeping that momentum going into March.
While Auburn doesn’t have the best defense, they have one of the better offenses remaining in the tournament. They’ll really have to shoot the lights out to compete with the Tar Heels, but they’ve shown they can do that, and this team hasn’t lost since Feb. 23. North Carolina will have their hands very full with this matchup, and they’re going to have to defend the perimeter well.
