Eight key questions entering the NCAA Tournament
The reveal of the March Madness brackets brings more questions than answers. A year like this one only makes it worse — there is no consensus heavy favorite this season, and the field feels wide open.
Of course, there are other questions beyond who will win. There are things happening on and off the court that raise questions, historical trends that raise eyebrows, and much more. Here are eight key questions entering this year’s tournament.
1) Is this the year Virginia’s pack line defense is too much for everyone?
This is the third time in the last five years that the Cavaliers have won 30 games in a season, though this is the first time they’ve done it before the tournament has even started. The first two times they did it — 2014 and 2015 — they were bounced from the tournament in the Sweet Sixteen and second round, respectively, both by Michigan State. If you look at it that way, the best news for Tony Bennett’s team this year is that they can’t meet the Spartans any earlier than the championship game.
Still, the Cavaliers have been one of college basketball’s best programs for about five years now, but have just one regional final appearance to show for it. This is Bennett’s most accomplished regular season team, the top overall seed in the tournament, and they’ve been placed in a fairly forgiving region. They’re not the most talented team in the field, but they weren’t the most talented team in the ACC, either, and they won that. It should be Final Four or bust — at minimum — for the Cavaliers this year.
2) Will two of the sport’s longest title droughts come to an end?
The last 20 years of college basketball have been dominated by just three conferences — the ACC first and foremost, then the SEC, and most recently the Big East. The AAC and Big 12 have also won a title during that time span.
Whither the other two Power Five leagues? The Big Ten hasn’t brought home a college basketball title since 2000, when Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans did it. The Pac-12 has to go even further back — Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team from the league to win a title. Considering the quality that both leagues have produced over the years, that’s rather surprising.
Arizona probably represents the Pac-12’s best chance this year. The Big Ten might have the better opportunity, with the Spartans, Michigan Wolverines, and Purdue Boilermakers looking capable of making deep runs in the tournament. Both conferences will feel these droughts have lasted far too long.
3) In a year with no clear favorite, will chaos reign?
Virginia, the tournament’s top overall seed, is still not regarded as a runaway favorite to win the title. The usual blue bloods have plenty of talent, but there are reasons to doubt the likes of Duke, Michigan State, Kansas, or North Carolina. You can look at virtually any of the top teams in the field and come up with reasons why they can win the whole thing, but it’s also easy to see scenarios in which they’re tripped up — maybe early.
That could mean a lot for the field. What if a Kansas or a Duke or even a Purdue or Arizona goes down early? It makes someone’s road easier, but it may open the door for a dark horse or an unexpected contender. Sure, chalk may reign, but the lack of an elite team makes chaos seem just a bit more likely.
4) Where will Cinderella rise?
It feels as if there is a soft underbelly in this year’s NCAA Tournament. While there are the handful of major contenders to win it all, the four, five, and six seeds are largely populated by what one might call nondescript power conference teams that are good, but not great. The likes of Auburn, Clemson, Miami, and TCU are respected, but few are going to pick them to go deep into the tournament.
That could open the door for a lesser team. There are a number of possibilities, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the likes of Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, or St. Bonaventure. It’s easy to see some double-digit seed cruising to the Sweet Sixteen over a few unremarkable major conference foes.
5) What will a week off do to the Big Ten?
For the first time ever, the Big Ten concluded its conference tournament a full week before Selection Sunday in order to play at Madison Square Garden. Power conference tournaments pretty much never conclude that early, so this will be a big test of what it does to prominent teams.
Take Michigan, for example. The Wolverines ride into the tournament scorching hot, having cruised through the Big Ten tournament with wins over Michigan State and Purdue. They’ve had a full week off, though. If you’re a big believer in momentum in sports, it’s an open question what the time off will do to the Wolverines. The Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans are in the same boat, though there’s an argument to be made that the rest and practice time could prove beneficial. We’ll have to wait and see.
6) Will an FBI investigation cast a shadow over the sport’s biggest event?
The biggest stories about college basketball all season long have been off the court, not on it. The FBI’s investigation has involved a number of schools, several of which are in the NCAA Tournament. There is Bruce Pearl at Auburn, for instance, and questions are still lingering over the Arizona program as well. It’s fair to say that the sexual assault scandal at Michigan State, while unrelated to the FBI investigation, has had an impact on the Spartans as well.
Those questions and stories will not simply go away now that the tournament is kicking off. If anything, the national focus falling firmly on the NCAA will breathe new life into these stories. After all, there’s already a conspiracy theory regarding why certain teams were left out of the field. How will the event handle it? How will the teams implicated handle it? We simply don’t know, but it’s going to hang over the event whether they like it or not.
7) How long will the game’s premier stars stick around?
Who will be the face of March Madness? There are several candidates, but the field is wide open.
There’s Trae Young, but his struggling Oklahoma Sooners may not survive the first round. Even if Michigan State and Duke last the first weekend, Miles Bridges and Marvin Bagley III will meet in the Sweet Sixteen, and one will be sent home. The winner may have to play Kansas’s Devonte’ Graham, so only one of that group can make the Final Four. Virginia lacks that standout star. Villanova has a good shot with Jalen Brunson, but nothing is set in stone.
Perhaps a not-so-obvious player will take over the month of March. Keep an eye on Moritz Wagner of Michigan, DeAndre Ayton of Arizona, Keita Bates-Diop of Ohio State, or Xavier’s Trevon Bluiett if their teams do well enough.
8) Which First Four team will make first round noise?
It has become an undeniable trend that at least one First Four team goes on to win at least one more game. It’s happened every single year since the concept was introduced in 2011, when VCU went from the First Four to the Final Four. It’s been three years since a team went beyond the second round, but the streak of First Four wins in the round of 64 remains unbroken.
One could argue that all four First Four teams have a shot to do it this year. St. Bonaventure will get a Florida team that has lost six of 11 dating back to the end of January. Either Arizona State or Syracuse will face TCU, who enter the tournament having lost two straight. It wouldn’t come as a shock if either team fell victim to an upset.