For the first time ever, the NCAA Tournament selection committee allowed a peak at the top seeds in this year’s tournament. Of course, they are all subject to change, but the committee thought that allowing an early look provided a level of transparency (and CBS didn’t mind a bunch of eyeballs tuning in mid-afternoon on a February Saturday).
Nothing on the top line should have surprised anyone, with presumed top seeds Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, and Gonzaga all being slotted atop respective regions. With just under a month until Selection Sunday, those four teams are as solid a top four as we’ve seen in recent years. The race for a number one seed has slowed down, with those four dominating the track. There is still a path for teams outside that group to leap, but looking at remaining schedules and current resumes, the one seed picture is pretty clear.
Here’s a look at candidates to get a No. 1 seed in the tourney.
1) Villanova
The defending champs were slotted as the top overall seed, and rightfully so. At 25-2, with both losses coming on the road in conference to tourney bound teams, the Wildcats have shown themselves to be among the nation’s best. Injury troubles have led to potential depth concerns, but until those concerns turn into real losses on the court, Villanova is safe at the top. Even a loss or two down the stretch probably keeps the Cats in the top overall slot and playing second weekend tournament games in nearby Madison Square Garden.
2 and 3) Kansas and Baylor
The two Big XII teams in the conversation for a top seed are so intertwined, it makes sense to discuss them together. Both have been very successful in one of America’s deepest conferences, with plenty of non-conference wins to boast as well. Kansas won the first meeting between the two at home and Baylor gets another shot at the Jayhawks in Waco this Saturday.
Splitting the season series keeps both teams alive for a number one seed, but a Kansas sweep (especially if the Jayhawks also win the Big XII Tournament) might bump Baylor down a seed line. In the end, because geography takes precedent to rankings, jostling for position on the seed line isn’t as crucial, as Kansas would be sent to play in Kansas City and Baylor would head to Memphis.
4) Gonzaga
The Zags probably deserved to be above at least one of the Big XII teams when the seeds were revealed and definitely should after beating hated rival St. Mary’s on Saturday night. Again, because the geographic location is such a crucial factor in the bracketing process, as long as the Bulldogs are the No. 1 seed in the West, their overall seed shouldn’t matter much. To hold that spot, the Zags can likely drop one game, but losing to anyone in the West Coast Conference other than BYU or St. Mary’s might scare the committee and shift the Zags to a two seed.
5) The top team in the ACC
Despite its position as the best conference in America, the ACC currently doesn’t have one team deserving of a number one seed.
The in-fighting among conference rivals leaves each of their resumes short of being able to compete with the four teams we have listed ahead of them. If North Carolina, Florida State, or Louisville could win out and clinch the ACC regular season and tournament crowns, they’d steal a top seed. The odds of running the table against the ACC gauntlet are slim to none for all three of those teams.
6) Arizona
The Wildcats have had a very good season, but will likely earn a two or three seed. Unlike other teams in that conversation, however, Arizona does still have a path to the top.
Winning out, including a victory over UCLA in the regular season and a Pac-12 Tournament title, would have Arizona right behind the top four without question. In order to snag a top seed though, the Wildcats probably need Gonzaga to stumble down the stretch and drop a game to an inferior foe. If Baylor or Kansas stumbles, the ACC triumvirate is ready to pounce, but the committee prefers to keep the best teams in the West in that region come tournament time, leaving Arizona in the perfect spot if the Zags can’t finish strong.
Shane McNichol covers college basketball for Larry Brown Sports. He also blogs about college basketball and the NBA at Palestra Back and has contributed to Rush The Court, ESPN.com, and USA Today Sports Weekly. Follow him on Twitter @OnTheShaneTrain.
