Super Bowl LI is officially set. The New England Patriots will be appearing in the big game for the ninth time and looking to win their fifth Lombardi Trophy. The Atlanta Falcons will be making their second Super Bowl appearance and looking for their first Lombardi Trophy.
Early odds will likely sway heavily in New England’s favor, but as the saying goes, “on any given Sunday” either team could win.
With that in mind, here’s a look at five key match-ups that will ultimately determine a Super Bowl victor.
5. Patriots’ front seven vs. Falcons’ running backs
The Falcons have two very good running backs in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, both of whom are capable of inflicting damage on the ground as well as through the air. It’s a unique wrinkle that has helped propel Atlanta’s offense to the top of the league.
As dangerous as Matt Ryan has been this season, it’s no coincidence his career-best performance has come, at least in part, because of his running backs. They create match-up nightmares for opposing defense — especially in today’s NFL where short passes out of the backfield are often substituted for runs.
With a combined 2,482 yards and 24 touchdowns on the season, Freeman and Coleman make up nearly half of Atlanta’s offensive production. Because of that, the Patriots will have absolutely no choice but to narrow in on both backs as part of their defensive game-planning.
This is made all the more difficult when you consider the kind of damage wide receiver Julio Jones can do, but we’ll touch on that more later.
For New England, it’s a tall order to shut down both Freeman and Coleman. They’ll need to do it with a combination of clogging the middle with their defensive tackles, setting the edges with their defensive ends, and relying on their linebackers not to get beat in pass coverage.
That, of course, is good news for Atlanta because it’s a whole lot to stop. So if they can get creative with the use of their running backs — including two running back sets — it could potentially, throw the Patriots’ defense for a loop.
4. Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount vs. Falcons’ rush defense
LeGarrette Blount is a monster and should really be considered icing on the cake that is New England’s offense. He is the perfect counter-balance to quarterback Tom Brady, keeping defenses honest and preventing safeties from just resting out in center field, waiting for passes to come their way.
Simply put, if the Falcons can’t find a way to stop him — especially when it comes to keeping him out of the end zone — their chances of victory will be greatly diminished, if not eliminated entirely.
During the regular season, the Falcons were essentially middle of the pack against the run, allowing over 100 yards and nearly one touchdown per game. And while those numbers aren’t necessarily great, they would most certainly consider it a positive to limit Blount and the Patriots to only 100 total rushing yards and a single touchdown.
Those numbers are capable of being overcome. But if Blount gets going and plunges his way into the end zone twice or tallies upwards of 150 yards, it likely means Tom Brady isn’t facing many challenges deep and the Patriots are dominating time of possession.
For the Falcons, it’s Keanu Neal’s time to shine. The rookie safety is considered the team’s most dominant run defender having racked up over 100 tackles this season, so it’ll be he who meets Blount head-on in the trenches.
3. Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones vs. Patriots secondary
Some would designate this match-up as Julio Jones vs. Malcolm Butler, but there may not be as many one-on-one’s between these two as anticipated.
Could it happen? Absolutely, but as we’ll touch on later, predictability is not necessary something synonymous with Bill Belichick. And as we’ve seen from Belichick in the past, he could very well line up Butler across from Mohamed Sanu and then line up Logan Ryan against Julio Jones and provide constant safety help over the top.
Either way, this represents a challenge for Jones and the Falcons.
There’s no denying that Jones is Matt Ryan’s favorite and most reliable target. Heck, Jones is arguably the league’s most talented and dominating receiver. But it’s for that reason you can bet Matt Patricia, Belichick and the Patriots’ secondary will be wary of his ability to change the game.
The Falcons will have to get creative with Jones, moving him around from inside to outside, putting him in motion and basically finding any way they can to get him open in space. If they can’t, they’re likely in for a long afternoon. However, if they can, the advantage will most certainly tip to Atlanta’s favor.
2. Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan
While Tom Brady and Matt Ryan will not square off against each other specifically, how each quarterback performs will most certainly impact the outcome of the game. Accordingly, it will boil down to how each player handles critical and stressful situations.
For Brady, it’s just another day at the office. This will be his seventh Super Bowl appearance. He’s won it four times before. He was also named MVP in three of those victories, so when it comes to handling high-pressure situations, there is very legitimately no one with more experience.
The same cannot be said for Ryan, who will be appearing in his very first Super Bowl and has never before experienced the pressures that come along with such a high-profile football game.
But all the experience (or inexperience) in the world won’t be a deciding factor. It may benefit Brady more than it will Ryan, who is likely to win the NFL regular-season MVP, but they’ll both still have to go out there and get it done. And whoever puts up the better line by day’s end will likely be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
1. Bill Belichick vs. Dan Quinn
Bill Belichick has known nothing but success throughout his career in the NFL, and that’s been achieved with meticulous and unparalleled attention to detail. He’s a master when it comes to game-planning and preparation, which has been evident dating back to Super Bowl XXV when he concocted a brilliant defensive game-plan for the New York Giants.
He’s not flawless, but he’s certainly close to it — especially in big games. And given that the Falcons rode their high-powered offense to the Super Bowl, you can bet Belichick is licking his chops as he prepares to take on this challenge.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there’s Dan Quinn, a second-year head coach who’s never before been to the Super Bowl in his current capacity. That, of course, is not to say he’s without experience. He’s been to the Super Bowl three times himself, last winning it in 2014 as the Seattle Seahawks’ defensive coordinator.
Like Belichick, Quinn is known for his defensive mindset and ability to draw up game-plans that give headaches to even the very best. And like Belichick, he’s completely capable of coming up with something game-changing.
It may not be a student vs. pupil scenario, but it is older brilliance versus younger brilliance. And we will all reap the rewards while watching these two exceptionally intelligent football minds battling it out from their respective sidelines.
