Sean McDermott and the Buffalo Bills played to win the game on Monday night at Tennessee, but they came up short.
The Titans scored on a 13-yard Derrick Henry touchdown run with just over three minutes left in the game to take a 34-31 lead over the Bills. Buffalo got the ball back and began their possession at their 18. The Bills got a few big pass plays to get the ball down to the Tennessee 8 in the final minute.
On 3rd-and-6, Josh Allen scrambled and dove for a first down, but he barely came up short.
The Bills faced a decision: go for it on 4th-and-1 with 22 seconds left, or kick a field goal to tie the game and likely send it to overtime.
They went for it on a QB sneak by Allen. He slipped and fell down short of the first down marker, turning the ball over on downs.
My goodness Jeffery Simmons pic.twitter.com/EUt8aLQd0x
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) October 19, 2021
That gave Tennessee a 34-31 win.
Even though the decision didn’t work out, the analytics say going for it was by far the right call due to the likelihood that a 4th-down conversion would have won the game.
The Bills decision to go for it on 4th & inches from the Titans 3 (trailing 34-31) was unequivocally the optimal call according to the NGS Decision Guide.
🔹 Conversion Probability: 75%
🔹 Win Probability: 63% if GO, 42% if FG
🔹 Recommendation: GO FOR IT (by 21.3%)#BUFvsTEN— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 19, 2021
4th-and-short should have been an easy conversion for the Bills. Then they likely would have run the ball another time or two for the touchdown considering they had another timeout left. This was unfortunately just one of the rare times they didn’t convert in that situation, but it was the right call.
Remember, the Titans have Derrick Henry, who was pounding them and likely would have continued that in overtime. Trying to win in regulation was the best decision.
