While it’s generally accepted that only a handful of nations can actually win the FIFA World Cup, the tournament does leave room for a surprise or two. Few would have expected Costa Rica to reach the quarterfinals in 2014. Similarly, Paraguay and Ghana were both surprising entrants at the same stage in 2010.
Who could it be this year? Here are ten countries who could spring a surprise on some of their opponents at this year’s World Cup in Russia.
10) Serbia
Serbia is held back from being a true tournament dark horse by its iffy group of attackers, but rest assured they’ll be tough to break down. Defensively, they have a world of experience led by Branislav Ivanovic and Aleksandar Kolarov, while midfielder Nemanja Matic will serve as a midfield anchor to keep other teams from scoring. The keys will be midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who could be one of the tournament’s breakout stars, as well as forward Aleksandar Mitrovic. If the latter is firing and the former is creating, Serbia could spring a surprise.
9) Senegal
A difficult group for Senegal, no doubt, but they’re well-equipped to deal with it. They have what several other underdogs lack: players who can win games on their own. Look at Keita Balde, or even better, Sadio Mane, who scored in the Champions League final for Liverpool. Senegal has been criticized for being too negative and pragmatic, but there are worse ways to approach a tournament than to keep things tight and hope Mane or Balde come up with something special. If it all comes together, a deep run into the tournament is entirely possible.
8) Morocco
The Moroccans received a tough draw, as they’ll likely need to best either Spain or Portugal to escape their group. It’s entirely possible that they’ll do it. The Atlas Lions, as they’re known, cruised through qualifying and enter the World Cup with an experienced squad that has the requisite tools to succeed. They’re sturdy in defense, meaning they can keep things tight, and Hakim Ziyech leads a creative group of midfielders. Scoring will be the key for them — if they keep it tight at the back and pick off a goal at the other end, all bets are off.
7) Costa Rica
Definitely one of 2014’s surprise outlets, the Ticos reached the quarterfinals in Brazil and return many of the same players that got them there. Things will be tougher this time around in a group featuring Serbia and Switzerland as their rivals for second place, but their opportunities start from the back, where Keylor Navas is a truly world-class goalkeeper. They’re a tough, organized unit that had little trouble in qualifying who should be underestimated at one’s own peril. If you need proof of that, just look back at their run in Brazil.
6) Switzerland
In the same group as the Costa Ricans, Switzerland do a lot of things well. They have talent, they have a sturdy defense that performed well in qualifying, they’re well-organized, and they have a good amount of experience in their side. The trick for them will be scoring enough goals, which has been a problem for a lot of their forwards. In a tough group, that will be telling, but if they get out of it, a team that can keep it tight and steal a goal can surprise people. Switzerland may just pull that off.
5) Nigeria
Nigeria has landed in a tough group and they will not be favored to get out of it, with Argentina and Croatia listed as the favorites while Iceland remains a wildcard. Don’t sleep on the Super Eagles, though. This is a talented team that beat Argentina in November, so they won’t be intimidated by Lionel Messi and company. They boast players with top-level European experience in John Obi Mikel, Victor Moses, and Alex Iwobi, and there is ultimately enough talent here to put a major scare into some of their superior group foes. Their game against Croatia should be a defining moment for both teams.
4) England
One has to figure out what would count as a surprise from England’s standpoint here, given that expectations often veer from optimism to crushing pessimism in the blink of an eye. This year’s group is young and unknown, with the minimum expectation being that they get out of a fairly forgiving group and go from there. And what could happen from there? Harry Kane could score, Raheem Sterling could maintain his club form, and they could surprise a team or two and make a serious run at the quarterfinals. That would be a pleasant and welcome surprise.
3) Croatia
To be clear, it will not be a surprise to see Croatia get out of their group — in fact, that will be the minimum expectation, even if it won’t be an easy ride. Luka Modric has been one of the world’s finest players for at least half a decade now and probably longer, and he’s still running the show for Croatia. Ivan Rakitic, Ivan Perisic, and Andrej Kramaric are just some of the talented names around him. The midfield is fantastic and could allow them to beat a superior opponent, so watch out.
2) Denmark
Denmark is another somewhat unheralded team with a lot of top-level talent. Chief among them is midfield creator Christian Eriksen, who is one of the tournament’s better players. The key will be to get everyone around him firing. Kasper Dolberg and Pione Sisto are very talented players who will need to be at their best in Russia. If they are, not only could Denmark get out of the group, but they might surprise a few people once they do.
1) Poland
Quite forgotten among top seeds, probably because they’re the most vulnerable of the lot, Poland is a top seed in their group all the same. Robert Lewandowski is one of the world’s best goalscorers, and he should be enough to fire them into the knockout rounds, where it’s anyone’s guess after that. Watch for midfielder Piotr Zielinski to help him out, a gifted and underrated player. The Poles have real, legitimate talent on show here, and they should get through the group and have enough quality players in the side to pick off a win or two after that.
