Top 10 favorites to win MLB MVP awards
National League
5. Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies)
Who doesn’t love playing in Colorado? Nolan Arenado sure does.
With more than 80 home runs and 260 RBIs over the past two seasons, there’s little doubt that Arenado has established himself as one of the true power threats in the National League. But don’t let that impressive swing fool you — Arenado is just as talented defensively as he is offensively, going back-to-back with Gold Glove awards over the last two years.
Although Arenado has never finished above fifth in the NL MVP voting, he’s steadily improved each year, rounded out his game, and is about to enter his prime.
Accordingly, projections have Arenado belting between 33-41 home runs, driving in 104-122 runs and scoring 90-108 runs in 2017. And given what we know of Arenado, it’s relatively easy to bet on the high end of those numbers. Arenado is also a stud defensively at third base.
The one thing Arenado must do this coming season to crack the top five in NL MVP voting is continue improving his eye at the plate. He walked a career-high 68 times last season, boosting his OBP to .362 and his OPS to .932. Those are MVP numbers any way you slice it, so if he can repeat that, he’ll be a strong candidate for his very first MVP award.
4. Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona Diamondbacks)
A four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger and two-time Gold Glover winner, Paul Goldschmidt already has quite an impressive resume. That resume also features two near MVP wins in 2013 and 2015, as well as strong consideration a year ago.
Despite that, there’s no denying that Goldschmidt’s career has taken a rather odd trajectory. Every other year he seems to slump a bit, which was the case in 2016. But if that trend continues in 2017, it would mean he’s due for an up year and production that parallels his aforementioned 2013 and 2015 campaigns.
The one positive for Diamondbacks fans is that even in Goldschmidt’s down years, he still produces at a solid clip. Accordingly, expectations remain high entering the 2017 season, where Goldschmidt is projected to hit between 22-26 home runs, deliver 80-100 RBIs and score 85-110 runs.
Yes, the gaps between the projections are large and it’s easy to understand why. But again, it’s an odd year and those tend to yield strong results for Goldschmidt. And if that pattern holds true, he’ll again be in the race for the NL MVP award.
3. Corey Seager (Los Angeles Dodgers)
The 2016 NL Rookie of the Year is just another in a long line of impressive young superstars littering MLB rosters. And although his numbers weren’t enough to warrant the MVP award a season ago, Corey Seager came close, finishing third overall in the NL.
While the potential for a sophomore slump exists, most oddsmakers and analytical projections appear to believe in Seager’s ability to string together successful seasons. In fact, he’s already been given some of the best early odds for the NL MVP by Vegas.
Seager’s statistical projects parallel that, with most graphs anticipating between 23-26 home runs, 80-100 RBI and 85-90 runs scored.
The one downfall to Seager’s game, which is something he’ll have to work on in 2017, is limiting his strikeouts (133 in 2016) and drawing more walks (54 in 2016). But those sorts of things come with age and experience.
2. Kris Bryant (Chicago Cubs)
It’s a rarity that a reigning league MVP is not considered the strong favorite to repeat, but that’s the situation Chicago Cubs star Kris Bryant currently finds himself in. And while he still sports good odds, he faces a slight uphill battle to repeat in 2017.
Bryant will likely duke it out with Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, whom we’ll get to in a moment, as well as several others this coming season. And the one thing that prevents him from leading this list is the sheer number of times he strikes out (353 in two seasons).
Even with the strikeouts, which are an accepted part of today’s game for players with power, there’s no denying the sort of impact the 25-year-old can (and does) have on a game-by-game basis.
Bryant earned NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2015, also finishing 11th in MVP voting. Last season, after batting .292/.385/.554 with 39 home runs and 102 RBIs, there was little doubt he deserved MVP honors. That, of course, was only sweetened by the Cubs finally breaking the curse and going on to win the World Series.
In 2017, Bryant is projected to hit between 31-39 home runs and drive in 95-123 runs. That will be more than enough to put him in the thick of the NL MVP race, especially considering the Cubs are likely to repeat as NL Central champs.
1. Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals)
Bryce Harper had a monster season in 2015, winning the NL MVP award after notching career highs in almost every statistical category, including a remarkable 1.109 OPS. However, things fell off quite a bit in 2016 and Harper wasn’t even seriously discussed among MVP favorites.
In 2017, expectations are that after his slump season, Harper will return to his superstar form, regain his game-changing power and once again strike fear in all opposing pitchers.
Early projections have Harper belting between 30-33 home runs, driving in between 95-116 runs, and scoring upwards of 100 runs. They also have him returning to a batting average above .280 and an on-base percentage of .400.
While the projections themselves are impressive, Harper has the potential to blow even them out of the water if he can remain healthy for the entirety of a season. And if spring training is any indication, Harper has returned to his 2015 form.
Harper has been crushing Grapefruit League pitching to the tune of 8 home runs. His 1.197 OPS this spring has Nats fans salivating for what is to come in the regular season. Nats fans are hoping an NL East crown and second MVP award for Harper will come in 2017.
