Sorry to deflate the balloon of all you Mets fans out there — and I know there are many of you — but I don’t think this trade (if it goes through) will mean a ring for your team. By acquiring the top pitcher in the game, you have become even more of a contender than you were before. But even with Johan Santana, do you still give the edge to the Mets over the Diamondbacks in the playoffs? That would be hard for me to do. Furthermore, the seminal Johan Santana moment for me — and this coming from one of his top fans going back many years — is when he got out-pitched by Barry Zito Game 1 of the ALDS at home, getting bombed on by the Big Hurt. I know Johan’s beaten the Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs, but I haven’t seen him rise his game in the post-season the way Josh Beckett has. And the Red Sox have Beckett, making them my favorite to win it all almost every year.
I’m not saying Johan Santana isn’t a great pitcher, and I don’t want to knock him down. I just have a really bad feeling about him leaving Minnesota. The four-year $80 million offer the Twins made seemed pretty good to me. I know Johan will probably bag $150-160 million guaranteed and be set for life (not to mention be on a well-funded, more competitive team), but I have a really bad feeling about him playing somewhere else. I don’t think he’ll be the same; I can see the extra media attention, pressure, or even injuries plaguing him. I really think staying in Minnesota for the four years and $80 million, plus another 3-4 year deal after that for an additional $75 million or so was probably the way to go rather than what he’ll likely get from the Mets. It’s not often that stars from small-market teams work out well when they sign monster deals with New York teams. I just hope Johan does well enough to the point where he’s going to Cooperstown wearing a Mets jersey.
And as far as the trade on the Twins’ side goes, it’s far too early to tell how this will pan out (if it goes down). You need at least five years to see what becomes of the four prospects they’re receiving. I’m being told Minnesota didn’t even get the Mets’ top prospects, but nobody can really comment until we see how they all pan out. What I do believe is that the Twins could have received a few major-league ready players from either the Red Sox or Yankees, but they didn’t pull the trigger. If you believe those reports (which nobody outside the actual negotiations really knows), then I think Aaron Gleeman summed it up best saying Smith slow-played a monster hand and didn’t get paid off. That seems about right to me. Oh yeah, and check out Johan’s Baseball-Reference page while you’re at it to see his post-season stats. Gleeman also sponsors the page and his comment there is hilarious.
