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Thursday, July 9, 2020

Mets sink to new low in loss to Nationals, blow 99.7 percent win probability

New York Mets

Being a New York Mets fan is living a daily roller coaster ride that includes many highs and lows. Tuesday’s game against the Washington Nationals completely embodied that reality.

The Mets somehow blew a 10-4 lead in the ninth inning and lost on a 3-run walk-off home run by Kurt Suzuki.

New York scored four runs in the fourth inning against the Nats in DC and led for most of the game. They were up 5-4 entering the ninth and added five runs to go up 10-4. At that point, they had a 99.7 percent likelihood to win, according to Fangraphs.

You know what happened next.

The Mets replaced Seth Lugo, who pitched a scoreless eighth, with Paul Sewald. He allowed four hits and departed with his team up 10-6 with one out and runners on first and second. The Mets still had the game in hand at that point, needing to just get two more outs. But they couldn’t do it.

Luis Avilan came in for the lefty-lefty matchup against Juan Soto and allowed him to reach base. The Mets then brought in struggling closer Edwin Diaz with one out and the bases loaded.

Diaz surrendered a 2-run double to Ryan Zimmerman and the 3-run knockout blow by Suzuki to end the game.

How improbable was the Nats’ comeback?

The 7-run inning was the greatest 9th-inning comeback in Nats history.

A loss like that will further solidify the Mets’ likelihood of not making the playoffs, while the Nationals get a big boost in their confidence and chances of clinching a postseason spot.

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