Shohei Ohtani will almost certainly set a new MLB record in free agency this winter, but it may not be the one many have anticipated.
It has long been assumed that any free-agent contract Ohtani signs heading into 2024 will be worth north of $500 million. The current largest contract ever signed by an MLB player was the 12-year, $426.5 million extension Mike Trout inked with the Los Angeles Angels back in 2019. Aaron Judge holds the record for a free-agent deal after he signed a 9-year, $360 million contract to return to the New York Yankees last winter.
According to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, people familiar with Ohtani’s thinking believe there is a chance the 29-year-old might not surpass Trout or even Judge. That is because Ohtani is reportedly open to the idea of signing a short-term contract with an “exceedingly high average annual value.”
The current MLB record for annual salary is $43.3 million, which both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer got from the New York Mets. Though Ohtani recently underwent a second elbow surgery, his agent has said Ohtani is still a two-way player. The right-hander will likely take a season off of pitching in 2024 before returning to the mound in 2025.
Ohtani will probably command more than $43.3 million per year whether he seeks a long- or short-term deal. If he focuses on the latter, he will blow past that figure. More teams would be open to giving Ohtani an absurd salary if they do not have to commit to him for 10-plus years.
If Ohtani did sign a short-term deal, he would be taking somewhat of a risk. He has already had two major surgeries on his throwing arm since 2018. A third could potentially put an end to his career as a pitcher, which would negatively impact his value if he hits free agency again a few years from now.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been viewed as the most likely suitor for Ohtani, but a recent report suggested a surprise team could complicate things. The Dodgers will have even more competition if Ohtani is truly willing to sign a short-term contract.
