The NBA playoff picture fundamentally changes every summer because of free agency.
The Cavs signed LeBron from Miami in 2014. The Clippers snatched DeAndre Jordan from the jaws of the Mavericks and the Warriors re-signed Draymond Green in 2015. And, of course, Golden State inked perhaps the second-best player in the world -– Kevin Durant, who went on to win NBA Finals MVP — in 2016.
There are a number of areas in which an NBA general manager must excel if he dreams of achieving success – such as drafting prospects, developing talent, managing the trade block, controlling media narratives, and hiring a coaching staff – but free agency changes everything.
A GM’s ability to attract and hold onto good players, and shrewdly manage the league’s salary cap in the process, goes a long way toward determining whether he can put a championship product on the floor.
As a number of writers have noted, this year’s crop of free agents is top-notch. Many big names -– among them Gordon Hayward, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and Kyle Lowry –- are single and ready to mingle.
So, which teams have positioned themselves to land one or two key players and elevate their chances of competing for the Larry O’Brien trophy next June?
(It’s worth noting the salary cap for the 2017-18 season will be significantly lower than many expected. Last week the league updated its projection to $99 million, down from the most recent projection of $101 million. The original projection, handed out in 2015, was $109 million.)
Below are 10 teams with strong cap situations heading into free agency, which officially begins July 6 (free agents can begin reaching verbal agreements with teams Saturday). The projected starting cap space numbers, which have been updated to reflect recent transactions such as the Bulls-Timberwolves and Lakers-Nets trades, come courtesy of RealGM and HoopsHype calculations.
1. Sacramento Kings – Projected Starting Cap Space: $53,236,837
The Kings have veterans coming off the books and money to blow. Rudy Gay, Tyreke Evans, Arron Afflalo (whom the team waived), Darren Collison, and Ty Lawson are among the Kings’ free agents.
Sacramento had a solid draft, snagging Kentucky’s De’Aaron Fox, North Carolina’s Justin Jackson, Duke’s Harry Giles, and Kansas’ Frank Mason. Though I loved the Fox and Mason picks, this is another team that would have benefitted from the addition of Malik Monk. Instead, the Kings traded down to take Jackson and Giles. It sure would’ve been fun to see Fox and Monk continue their careers together.
The Kings’ trade of DeMarcus Cousins continues to look better with time. Now, Sacramento has a budding young backcourt with Fox, Mason, and Buddy Hield.
The Kings have a big hole at the wing. Though Jackson could help patch it up, Sacramento should address this need in free agency – Tony Snell, Caldwell-Pope, and Porter are viable candidates.
Sacramento could also use an offensively minded big man to join the gradually improving Willie Cauley-Stein. Greg Monroe, Mason Plumlee, and Nikola Mirotic should be on Sacramento’s radar.
2. Philadelphia 76ers – Projected Starting Cap Space: $38,202,651
The Process has been built through the draft, as Philadelphia has now used top picks to snag Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, and the ghost of Nerlens Noel.
Things are finally starting to come together, and I love what they did in this year’s draft. Fultz was the creator they needed in the backcourt, but don’t sleep on the rest of their picks: Jonah Bolden (Australia), Sterling Brown (SMU), and Mathias Lessort (France). They also acquired Anzejs Pasecniks (Spain), the No. 25 pick, from the Magic.
The 76ers have a lot of guys on rookie deals and plenty of space to spend on free agents, if they so choose. They should sign Joel Embiid to an extension, though he has only played 31 career games, while his long-term value is a little bit questionable.
At this point, Philadelphia has plenty of youth and should seek out some veterans to fill in the team’s gaps. The 76ers don’t need to lose their cap advantage in doing so; they could pursue some mid-level guys: Joe Ingles, Patrick Patterson, and J.J. Redick would fit well.
3. Miami Heat – Projected Starting Cap Space: $34,582,760
Erik Spoelstra has done a wonderful job of holding his team together after the Big 3 era in Miami. The Heat missed out on the playoffs this year because Indiana held a tiebreaker (both teams finished 41-41), but they’ve got two nice pieces in Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic.
Dion Waiters was a pleasant surprise this season; he averaged 15.8 points and 4.3 assists (a career high) per game, and shot a career-best 40 percent from three. After a rough two-year stint in Oklahoma City, he appears to have found his home, and Miami should make re-signing Waiters a priority. Waiters, 25, might command a massive deal after his breakout year.
With Chris Bosh off the books, Miami needs help in the frontcourt. Given the playing styles of the Dragic/Waiters/Whiteside core, the Heat should look for a mobile big. Blake Griffin should be their top priority.
As always, it helps to have fallbacks: Ibaka and Gay are two to consider.
4. Denver Nuggets – Projected Starting Cap Space: $28,874,181
What do you do if you’re the Nuggets?
They finished only one game out of the No. 8 seed in the West this year, but their roster is not built to contend with the league’s best. Nikola Jokic is an exciting young player, but how much else do they really have? Danilo Gallinari is a valuable piece in the modern NBA, but he’ll turn 29 this summer and the Nuggets are years from contending. It might make sense for Denver to let him walk and spend that money elsewhere.
There are number of paths Denver could take, but one thing is clear: this team needs to find its identity.
Fortunately for the Nuggets, if they let Gallinari walk, they’ll have some real cap flexibility. One option is Paul Millsap, whose playing style would complement Jokic well. Another is to pursue Hayward, but it’s a longshot that he would choose Denver over Utah or Boston.
5. Brooklyn Nets – Projected Starting Cap Space: $24,728,106
The Nets’ trade for D’Angelo Russell was the first good move the franchise has made in quite a while. Granted, Brooklyn has to eat Timofey Mozgov’s contract – did anyone ever think that was a good deal for the Lakers? – and lost franchise hero Brook Lopez, but the Nets got a super promising 21-year-old guard with All-Star potential out of the deal.
With Russell, Jeremy Lin, and Sean Kilpatrick, Brooklyn has a fine backcourt. The Nets should now be looking for help on the wing and in the post. They should be planning for the post LeBron-on-the-Cavs era.
Detroit’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Washington’s Otto Porter Jr. come to mind as good targets on the wing. Memphis’ JaMychal Green and Chicago’s Cristiano Felicio (a work in progress) are potential big-man targets. Brooklyn also addressed its big-man need in the draft, snagging Jarrett Allen from Texas and Aleksandar Vezenkov from Spain.
