Despite following college basketball as closely as possible, even I am amazed by how little of the season remains before postseason play takes over. Teams are already celebrating Senior Night and jockeying for seeding in conference tournaments. Every team’s resume and spot on the bubble is starting to come into focus with March just days away on the calendar. You can nearly smell the NCAA Tournament coing, meaning it is no longer too early to start peaking for Cinderellas and surprises.
These ten teams could jump out and help you win or lose your bracket pool in a few weeks.
10. Middle Tennessee
Don’t be fooled by the mid-major label on Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have proven themselves able to play with anyone this season. Middle Tennessee is 22-5 versus the 78th-best schedule in the nation, per KenPom’s rankings. The Raiders get stops on defense and then clean the glass, allowing the 4th-fewest offensive rebounds in the nation. Offensively, everything runs through former Memphis and Alabama transfer Nick King. Things have clicked for King at his third school, to the tune of 21.4 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. In back-to-back games earlier this season versus SEC opponents (Vanderbilt and Ole Miss), King averaged 24 points per game and the Blue Raiders won both contests.
9. South Dakota State
There’s one reason to think the Jackrabbits can make waves in March. Junior forward Mike Daum is a 6-foot-9, 245-pound scoring machine. In three seasons on campus, Daum has totaled more than 2,000 points. He’s grabbing 10 rebounds per game and sinking 40 percent of his threes this season. For every team in the Summit League, Mike Daum is a nightmare. In the NCAA Tournament, any coach prepping to face South Dakota State will spend the entire week getting his team ready to contain Daum. In two prior trips to the Big Dance, Daum has been held under 20 points both times and shot a combined 12 for 29 against powers Maryland and Gonzaga. If he plays a team with the right match-up or gets especially hot, he can carry the Jackrabbits to the second weekend of tournament play.
8. Creighton
Guard play is key in the tournament. The game slows down and a reliable backcourt can drive a team to success. Creighton has one of the nation’s best pair of guards in Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas. They represent a perfect yin and yang, with Foster as an irrationally confident volume shooter, and Thomas as a steady scoring, hard-nosed defender. These two star guards have paced the Bluejays to a top-20 offense in college basketball. They will need to overcome the loss of injured forward Martin Krampelj. Since losing his scoring touch, the Bluejays haven’t been very impressive. With upcoming games against Butler, Villanova, and Marquette, they’ll have a chance to right the ship before the Big East Tournament in New York.
7. Arkansas
The Razorbacks might be a perfect example of a team getting hot at the right time. They won four straight in SEC play leading into a big home game versus mighty Kentucky. The Hogs have won those four games by an average of 16 points and are scoring more than 80 points per game over that stretch. As a team in those four games, Arkansas is sinking 41 percent from outside the arc. Should they continue that hot play against Kentucky and into the SEC Tournament, the Razorbacks have the experience, firepower, and tenacity to challenge any opponent.
6. Butler
Two kinds of teams can make noise in March. The first kind are steady and reliable, playing the same way versus every opponent and in every environment. The other kind are high variance teams, like Butler. The Bulldogs have yo-yoed their way through this season. Butler hung 101 points on Villanova in a win at home, but also lost to lowly Georgetown. The Butler that beat Villanova by hitting 15 of 22 from 3-point land could win any game in any gym. The Butler that shot 6 for 22 and only scored 48 points versus Texas would never win a tournament game. If the right Butler shows up enough times in a row, the Bulldogs can make a deep run in the Dance.
5. TCU
Jamie Dixon looked like he had a real contender on his hands at his alma mater this season, until point guard Jaylen Fisher got injured in mid-January. Junior guard Alex Robinson took on more of the ball-handling duties and made an immediate impact. In the Horned Frogs’ first game without Fisher, Robinson dropped 17 assists in 38 minutes on the court. Since Fisher’s injury, Robinson is averaging 11 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds per game, while shooting 44 percent outside the arc. TCU has the third ranked offense in the nation this season thanks to a balanced attack and willingness to make the extra pass. The Horned Frogs have stumbled to a 5-8 record in America’s toughest conference, but have lost six of those eight games by seven or fewer points.
4. Vermont
The Catamounts had won 14 in a row before slipping up this past weekend. That loss to Hartford was Vermont’s first regular season conference defeat since February of 2016. Coach John Becker has a team that plays disciplined, hard, and together. Vermont plays a glacially slow pace, patiently finding ways to score. Point guard Trae Bell-Haynes is one of America’s most unheralded floor generals, and sophomore Anthony Lamb is a natural scorer inside the paint. If you want a blueprint for a Vermont tournament upset, look no further than the Catamounts’ season opener at Kentucky. Big Blue snuck away with a four-point win, though had the game been at a neutral site, things might have gone much differently. Vermont will be at least that tough for whoever draws them in the first round this March.
3. Rhode Island
The Rams recently had a 15-game winning streak snapped by a stout St. Bonaventure team, but showed so much promise during that run. Jared Terrell and EC Matthews are senior standouts who can go toe-to-toe with any team in the country. While those two lead the scoring charge, Dan Hurley’s entire roster has shown the ability to defend with attitude. Rhode Island forces turnovers at the 5th-highest rate in the nation, on nearly a quarter of opponents’ possessions. This aggressiveness forces the other team into difficult shots, with only four teams in the nation allowing a high percentage of scoring from outside the 3-point line. This high intensity defense can get Rhode Island in foul trouble and allow points at the foul line. In March, when refs tend to swallow their whistles, the Rams may be perfectly suited to gut-out wins in the tournament.
2. Nevada
The Wolf Pack has been one of the most impressive mid-major teams all season long. Rather than simply wiping the floor with lesser competition, Nevada has been successful against other competitive teams. The Wolf Pack is 7-2 against teams in the KenPom top 65. Those two losses came in an overtime game at top ten Texas Tech and by only four points on a neutral court versus TCU. Led by the Martin twins, formerly of the North Carolina State Wolfpack, Nevada has a talented roster and an efficient offense. The Wolf Pack has proven itself able to score in every phase of the game, a much needed skill this late in the season.
1. Texas Tech
In March, we often see teams that are elite in one particular aspect of the game, rather than balanced across the board, advance in the NCAA Tournament. Having one strong, defined skill makes a team harder to prepare for and harder to handle when the going gets tough. Texas Tech is banking on this phenomenon this season, thanks to stifling defense by the Red Raiders. At times, Chris Beard’s club struggles to score, but no matter the opponent, Tech knows it can get stops on key possessions. The Raiders rank third in the nation in defensive efficiency, placing top 10 nationally in points allowed, turnover rate forced, opponent effective field goal percentage, and fewest assists allowed. Texas Tech has a chance to end Kansas’ streak of Big XII regular season titles. When you fill out your bracket in March, don’t get caught thinking this is a football school that is unable to make a run.
Shane McNichol covers college basketball and the NBA for Larry Brown Sports. He also blogs about basketball at Palestra Back and has contributed to Rush The Court, ESPN.com, and USA Today Sports Weekly. Follow him on Twitter @OnTheShaneTrain.
