With Randy Moss officially being dealt to the Minnesota Vikings, it seems like there are an endless amount of angles from which people are dissecting this thing. The ripple effect from the announcement is one of the most defined I can ever remember. One particular group of people whose heads must be spinning are fantasy football fanatics. We’ve already shared our thoughts on what the trade means for the fantasy value of Brandon Tate, but what about Tom Brady?
Are Brady’s fantasy owners screwed? Hardly. The Patriots are a pass-first team and aren’t going to change their entire philosophy after dealing a receiver — even if it’s their top receiver — four weeks into the season. However, it would be reasonable to assume that Brady’s fantasy production is going to take a hit. By that I mean I wouldn’t expect many games where he throws for over 300 yards and 3 or 4 touchdowns.
I’ve already shared my thoughts on whether or not the Patriots are in trouble without their only actual deep threat. I think they’ll bounce back and eventually be a better team, even if not this season. While the offense is probably going to take a hit from a point-scoring standpoint, could the Moss trade actually help the Patriots defense? Yes, this still has to do with Tom Brady’s fantasy value. Just hear me out.
A player like Moss gives you incredible quick strike ability as an offense and allows you to stretch the field and score quickly. Scoring quickly is fine. The job of the offense is to score touchdowns any way they can. However, the quicker you score, the quicker your defense has to take the field again. Not only that, but the ability to score quickly and go for the home run play tends to lead to more three-and-outs and drives that end quickly.
The Patriots were a team dedicated to the pass with Moss as their primary target. When a team throws the ball as much as New England does, drives that end tend to end abruptly. A drive that consists of a run and two incomplete passes can take about two minutes or less from start to finish. When that happens, the defense comes right back onto the field. When your defense is weak like New England’s, that’s normally a bad thing.
Now, back to Brady. With Randy Moss’ departure comes the relief of pressure on Brady to keep his top target satisfied by getting him the football. Without a legitimate deep threat, the Patriots will try to run the ball a lot more and work off play action passes to their capable rookie tight ends. If they’re successful with that approach, they can keep opposing offenses off the field longer and prevent their defense from being exploited as much. Of course, that approach will lead to less fantasy production from Brady.
Brady will still put up respectable numbers, but his yardage and touchdowns will take a hit with Moss gone. We can expect to see more stat lines like the one we saw on Monday night during a record-setting defensive and special teams effort than the 350-yard, 3 score performances we’ve grown used to since 2007. If the Patriots are trying to get back to the way they used to win games, that means controlling the clock and working efficiently rather than lighting up the scoreboard. That could lead to a lot of 200-yard, 2 touchdown games from Brady. Based on where you probably drafted him in your fantasy drafts, that could come as somewhat of a disappointment.
