Monday night’s game between the New York Jets and New England Patriots is arguably the best regular season game we’ve had this year. Rex Ryan has already made it clear his job is to “kick Bill Belichick’s ass” and thinks his Jets are the best team in the NFL, despite what many analysts are saying. The Jets got the best of the Pats in round one at the New Meadowlands, but New England is now without Randy Moss. One would think the subtraction of a player like Moss would hurt the team, but that hasn’t been the case. The Patriots are one of the NFL’s hottest teams since the swap, but the Jets could secure their place as the team to beat in the AFC with a win in Foxboro.
1. Will the Jets Cut Back on Their Blitzing?
The Jets defense is built around attacking the quarterback. Rex Ryan loves to send the house as often as he can and blitz as much as possible. Over the last couple of seasons, New York has rattled Tom Brady by getting in his face and forcing bad throws. That was when the Patriots loved to throw the deep ball. New England’s offense has morphed into a dink and dump barrage and so far it’s worked to perfection. Against the Steelers — one of the NFL’s best and most blitz-happy defenses — Tom Brady and the Patriots’ passing attack went off for 350 yards. Expect them to try to do the same to the Jets if they bring a lot of pressure with the blitz.
2. Mark Sanchez
The Patriots have moved into dead last in the NFL in passing defense. If you’re wondering how a team can be so horrible on defense and have a 9-2 record, join the club. Brian Schottenheimer needs to unleash Mark Sanchez early in this game if he wants his offense to be successful. New England is the easiest team in the NFL to throw on, and it took the Jets a full half to figure that out in their week two match-up. Once they did, New York took control of the game and pulled away. They can’t afford to wait on the road. Schottenheimer needs to draw up some big plays early and not wait until overtime to get Santonio Holmes involved. On the flip side, New England’s secondary has to find a way to avoid giving up the big play.
3. Turnovers
A defensive minded team like the Jets feasts on turnovers and momentum. A Rex Ryan defense doesn’t think about holding an opponent to three points when they get inside the red zone — they think about how they can get the ball. Much of the time, they find a way. One of the NFL’s biggest mysteries is how the Patriots’ defense can be ranked so low and the team can have a 9-2 record. It comes down to protecting the football. Tom Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since week six. He threw his 199th consecutive pass without an interception against the Lions, breaking his own previous mark. The Patriots’ ability to protect the football and control the clock has minimized the damage on defense. If New York can force a few turnovers, it shouldn’t be difficult to capitalize.
Damien Woody has been held out of practice with a knee injury, so it’s a good thing the Pats get zero pressure on the quarterback. Cornerbacks Dwight Lowery and Marquice Cole were limited in practice, and while neither is a stud it doesn’t hurt to have depth at corner when facing the Patriots. Mark Sanchez, Calvin Pace, David Harris and Nick Mangold are all listed on the injury report but practiced in full Thursday and should play.
New England placed offensive lineman Stephen Neal on IR with a shoulder injury, so they’re certainly glad Logan Mankins is back with the team. Tom Brady has been his usual limited self in practice with “foot” and “shoulder” injuries, but we all know how that goes. The Patriots could be a little thin at defensive line with Mike Wright and Myron Pryor both held out with neck and back injuries, respectively.
If ever there were a week for Mark Sanchez to go off, this would be it. The Jets will be amped up for this game and would be smart to try to exploit New England’s weak pass defense right out of the gate. Santonio Holmes has emerged as a must-start and should see good production this week, but Braylon Edwards could be an even better play. Holmes will see a lot of rookie corner Devin McCourty, who is gaining confidence and looking better by the week. LaDainian Tomlinson has been the ultimate fantasy flex play this year and seems to get about 10 points per week. He could be right around there again if the Jets open things up underneath by throwing it early.
With the way the Patriots passing attack has been clicking, it’s safe to roll with Brady and Wes Welker like you normally would — even against the Jets. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been producing consistently and could have another good week if the Patriots try to run it to counter the Jets’ blitz. He’s a risky play this week against the 4th ranked Jets run defense. I’d stay away from Deion Branch, as he’ll see a lot of Darrelle Revis. Rob Gronkowski always has a chance to score a touchdown, so I’d feel comfortable using him in a game where the Pats will try to keep controlling the clock and continue running play-action passes.
On paper, this is about as even as it gets. Both teams deserve to be in the discussion of best team in the NFL, and they do it in completely different ways. The Patriots rely on the brain of Tom Brady and the efficiency of their new offense, while the Jets look to make big plays on defense and put their offense in favorable situations. Not having the crowd against them should help the Patriots. They should also benefit from not having to force the ball deep to allow Randy Moss to win the ego war with Revis. New England is a much different team than they were week two, and I expect them to showcase that against New York.
