The NFL has repeatedly adjusted kickoff rules in recent years in an attempt to decrease the potential danger of the play. But after adding an additional five yards to a touchback ahead of the 2016 season, it would appear as if their plan is about to backfire.
Through two weeks of the preseason, touchbacks are down and kick returns are up.
According to NFL Media research, of the 279 kickoffs this preseason (Week 3 games not included), only 92 of them have resulted in a touchback. Even with a large percentage of kickoffs reaching the endzone, team’s are consistently running the ball out anyway.
Here are the stats from NFL Media’s article:
Out of 142 total kickoffs in the first week of the preseason, just 42 (29.6 percent) resulted in touchbacks, and the other 100 were returned. Furthermore, 99 of the 142 kickoffs went into the end zone, meaning there were 57 additional opportunities for a touchback, but the returner opted instead to run the ball back.
In Week 2, there were 137 total kickoffs, 50 of which (36.5 percent) were touchbacks. A total of 102 kickoffs (74.5 percent) reached the end zone, so teams returned the ball 52 times when they didn’t have to. That means that of the 279 kickoffs so far this preseason, the ball went into the end zone 72 percent of the time, but only 33 percent of all kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, while 67 percent were returned.
Even in the event kick returners begin to take those additional five yards, Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid believes special teams coordinators will quickly adjust. And rather than booting the ball deep in the endzone, Reid feels they’ll just start to pop it up inside the 10.
“I think these special teams coaches are smart guys,” Reid told PFT Live on Friday. “They’re popping the ball up, so we might have more returns than we’ve ever had. It’s crazy. I’m not sure it’s the same thing the league was trying to get, but that’s what we’re getting right now.
“These kickers are so accurate and they can put it right down there within the five yard line and the goal line and force you into a return and then your coverage teams have got to do their thing. Special teams coaches and coverage teams have the confidence that if the kicker does that then they can keep them within that 25-yard area or actually within that 20-yard area. So I think your probably gonna see more returns than ever.”
Technically, the league could change the rules in-season based on “extraordinary circumstances,” but that seems highly unlikely. Rather, the NFL is simply going to have to swallow whatever pill it is they’re handed this year.
If the preseason is any indication, Reid is 100 percent spot on. Short of eliminating the kickoff entirely, return men and special teams coordinators are going to find a way to work around it. There are too many game-changing players who will be set free one way or another, and too many talented kickers who will work to save those extra five yards.
Whatever way you slice it, it appears as if kick returns will continue to be a staple of the game.
