We’re roughly halfway through the college football season, and the playoff picture is becoming clearer every week. As teams continue to win or fade, we can assess what they’ve done so far. We can also look at their remaining schedule and potential championship game scenarios to figure out just how likely it will be for teams to make the College Football Playoff.
There are really only a handful of about 10-12 teams that still have a shot at making it into the CFP, as the second loss of a season is usually the kiss of death for any school. Here are the 10 most likely participants.
10) UCF
It is theoretically possible. It would take a whole lot of chaos in the Power Five, but the Knights are still unbeaten and chugging along into the top ten. As long as they remain unbeaten, they have a chance, albeit an outside one. Last year will help them, as they have the credibility of an unbeaten season and a win over Auburn, and McKenzie Milton is a legitimately excellent player. Will it happen? Probably not. Several one-loss teams will get consideration ahead of UCF. But as long as they’re unbeaten, they shouldn’t be ignored.
9) Oregon
With their overtime win over Washington, the Ducks became the Pac-12’s best hope of a bid. They have to win at Washington State and essentially win-out for it to have any chance of happening, and their case would look a lot more intriguing had they not collapsed at home against Stanford. That case still exists, and Justin Herbert is an exciting quarterback who deserves to play in the most competitive games. They have a favorable schedule the rest of the way after they get past the Cougars, so if they win that, running the table is definitely in play, though even that might not prove to be good enough.
8) LSU
Their win over Georgia puts them firmly in the conversation, though they’d be higher on the list if they shared the less-competitive SEC East with the Bulldogs. Still, that win keeps them in the conversation, and if they can beat Alabama at home in a little over three weeks, all bets are off. Even in that scenario, they’d still have to run the table — including winning at Texas A&M — and then win a rematch against Florida or Georgia, the former a team they’ve lost to once this season. It’s possible, but there are a lot of stumbling blocks in their way, and that Alabama game looms large.
7) Michigan
The Wolverines have shaken off an ugly season-opening loss at Notre Dame to put themselves right back in the conversation. There’s a lot more for them to do yet, though. They have to survive a trip to Michigan State, a team inferior on paper but with a record of tripping up teams in games like this. Then it’s Penn State at home, and then their game at Ohio State might ultimately decide who gets the Big Ten’s bid, provided anyone goes at all. Given their dismantling of Wisconsin, they’d be favored against whoever they face in the Big Ten Championship if they get there, but this will come down to the big game in Columbus, a place Jim Harbaugh has yet to win as Michigan coach.
6) Georgia
The Bulldogs are still firmly in the mix, but their loss to LSU leaves them no margin for error. They must beat Florida at home this weekend to seize total control of the SEC East, run the table from there, and, in all likelihood, beat Alabama — or LSU — in the SEC Championship. If they do that, they can probably call themselves in, but there can be no promises. They have to escape a trip to Kentucky as well during this period.
5) Texas
Texas is back, really, at least for 2018. Thanks to their win over Oklahoma, they are a legitimate threat to crash the playoff, too. Even though they lack the resume of an SEC team, they do have a more forgiving schedule that could enable them to enter the Big 12 Championship with an 11-1 record, possibly setting up a rematch with the Sooners. If they win that, they would have a very strong case. Their only other top 25 foe remaining is West Virginia at home, a game they’re good enough to win, especially if Sam Ehlinger is healthy by then.
4) Ohio State
The Buckeyes are still unbeaten and in total control of their destiny, which is where you want to be at this point in the season. Ultimately, they are one of four teams who one can safely say will definitely be in the playoff if they win-out. They have to go to Michigan State, and their home game against Michigan may end up deciding who gets in out of the conference, but they should be favored in every game the rest of the way, even taking Nick Bosa’s decision into account.
3) Notre Dame
The Irish may not have a conference, but if they go unbeaten, they’ll have enough good wins that the committee won’t be able to leave them out. Their victory over Michigan looks better and better, and they’ve also toppled Stanford and Virginia Tech this season when both were ranked. Everyone remaining on their schedule is unranked, though a trip to USC could trip them up. If it doesn’t, they’re likely in, though the Irish, more than any other team, are walking a fine line. One loss and they’re probably done.
2) Clemson
It doesn’t appear that anyone in the ACC has the power to stop the Tigers. They’re 6-0 and, after their upcoming home game against NC State, won’t have to face another currently-ranked opponent until the ACC Championship at the earliest. On paper, they’re much better than any of their rivals, particularly on defense, and they’d likely be favored over anyone in the ACC Coastal in the conference championship game, too. One loss could make things hairy, but they’ll walk their way into the playoff if they don’t lose again. They look unlikely to.
1) Alabama
No one has come even close to stopping them so far and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change. Skeptics will argue that they have yet to face top-level competition, but that will change on Nov. 3 when they visit LSU for a game that will likely decide the SEC West. Alabama still has to be favored there, and if they win it, it’s tough to see anyone stopping them before the SEC Championship. Given their remaining schedule and how good they’ve looked, at this point it would be a surprise if they find a way to miss the playoff.
