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#pounditTuesday, May 17, 2022

Insane win probability graphic from Chiefs-Bills game goes viral

Patrick Mahomes

The end of regulation between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills on Sunday was absolutely ludicrous. If you want an idea of just how chaotic it really was, look no further than the win probability calculator for the game.

The Chiefs led for most of the second half of the divisional playoff contest and took a 26-21 lead late into the fourth quarter. But the Bills responded with a Josh Allen touchdown strike to Gabriel Davis and subsequent two-point conversion to take the 29-26 lead. The Chiefs then hit back with a touchdown of their own on a 64-yard catch and run by Tyreek Hill from Patrick Mahomes to go back up 33-29.

Not to be outdone, Allen countered with another touchdown pass to Davis with just 13 seconds left to retake the lead at 36-33. But 13 seconds was all Mahomes and the Chiefs needed. Mahomes got the Chiefs into field goal range with a couple of big pass plays, and Harrison Butker hit a 49-yard field goal to send the game into overtime at 36 all.

The wild seesaw battle produced an ESPN win probability graphic that looked like a seismometer measuring an earthquake. Take a look.

Kansas City went on to win the coin toss in overtime and got the ball first. They then proceeded to score a walk-off touchdown on the opening drive of overtime, getting themselves the 42-36 win and disappointing many fans. Here was the updated win probability graphic after the game finished.

While the ending was anticlimactic, the final minutes of regulation were peak back-and-forth entertainment. They also produced the craziest win probability chart you will ever see (at least since this game a few weeks ago).

Photo: Feb 3, 2020; Miami, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes speaks with media during the winning coach and Super Bowl MVP Press Conference at Hilton Miami. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports


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