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#pounditThursday, March 28, 2024

NFL Mock Draft: Using wisdom of the crowd to predict the first round

Drew Lock

10. Denver Broncos — Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Will Denver go after its next quarterback in the draft, after acquiring veteran Joe Flacco this offseason? It’s still definitely in play. Drew Lock is one of the bigger wild cards in this draft, as he slides out of the first round in a few mocks. I don’t see that as likely to occur because quarterbacks taken in the first round are a valuable commodity, and of all the quarterbacks in this draft, Lock seems most tied to Elway and his preferred style (well, except Daniel Jones, who shares some height traits with Flacco and Brock Osweiler). Lock also seems to welcome playing for Denver.

11. Cincinnati Bengals — Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

The Bengals are at another inflection point in this draft. It would make some sense for them to go quarterback with a new offensive coaching staff and Andy Dalton turning 32 this year. They could absolutely be in play for Lock, Haskins, or Jones here. If the quarterback they covet does not get to them, the most likely target becomes linebacker, where the team finally moved on from Vontaze Burfict and needs a team leader on defense. Bush fits the bill in that department.

12. Green Bay Packers — T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Green Bay could look to address the offensive weapons around Aaron Rodgers in new coach Matt LaFleur’s offense, with either the 12th or 30th pick, or both. With Jimmy Graham turning 33 this season, tight end is definitely an area they could choose to address based on both need and what is likely to fall at their slots. This is also a trade-down opportunity for the Packers, but if they stick, Hockenson makes sense. If they would rather try to get Noah Fant later in the first round, they could gather multiple picks and move back.

13. Miami Dolphins — Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

The Dolphins are clearly embarking on a multi-year rebuild and could opt to go just about anywhere. They have Ryan Fitzpatrick as a caretaker quarterback and could opt to address that position if someone slips here, but the more likely case is that they address the lines. They will have their pick of several good options at this point on defense, but we have seen offensive tackles go earlier than people expect, and Williams is going to be drafted by the middle of the round.

14. Atlanta Falcons — Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

Sweat represents the last of the tier of players that started at pick number 6. After his stellar Combine, he could easily go there or to Detroit, or be part of someone else choosing to trade up if he is still on the board as the draft moves into the teens. If Sweat is gone, Atlanta is still likely to address the defensive line but will look more at an interior player like Christian Wilkins.

15. Washington Redskins — D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi

Washington has already devoted a large portion of resources to the quarterback position, paying Alex Smith, acquiring Case Keenum and paying his contract because of Smith’s injury, and yet they still may go with a developmental first-round project like Daniel Jones. Over half the mock drafts have Jones outside the first but the others have him going here or to the Giants.

The more likely outcome is that the team addresses the need for playmakers by taking physical marvel D.K. Metcalf at wide receiver. Josh Doctson led all receivers in yards last year with only 532.

16. Carolina Panthers — Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

Carolina should have their choice of options at the two primary positions of need: offensive tackle and defensive end. There’s an argument that Andre Dillard has the highest upside of any of the offensive tackles in this class based on his Combine testing and his history with a passing offense at Washington State. Some mocks have him falling to the Texans at No. 23 but that’s a best-case scenario for Houston and it’s just as likely he goes by this pick. Carolina could also look at Brian Burns and Clelin Ferrell with this pick.

17. New York Giants — Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

If the Giants get the quarterback with the first pick in this round, they will be looking defense. If they don’t, Daniel Jones could be in play. Getting Christian Wilkins, a dominant interior force for defending champion Clemson, is a pretty good way to go, though. Wilkins might not make it here if the board falls in such a way that Atlanta grabs him instead.

18. Minnesota Vikings — Cody Ford, OG/OT, Oklahoma

The Vikings have a solid defense, great wide receivers, and paid Kirk Cousins a lot of money. Every mock draft has them taking an offensive lineman to address their biggest area of need. Frequently, that lineman is Cody Ford, the versatile lineman who played both guard and tackle at Oklahoma.

19. Tennessee Titans — Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State

The Titans could look to add a playmaker at either wide receiver or at tight end, where Delanie Walker suffered an early season-ending injury a year ago and will be turning 35. But the way the draft board is most likely to shape up, if they want to go that route, they may be best served with trading down 5-7 spots and targeting Noah Fant or one of the wide receivers like A.J. Brown or Marquise Brown. The area that they are more likely to be able to address at this point is at defensive line, where Brian Burns (average draft position 18.2) or Clelin Ferrell (average draft position 18.9) could potentially be available.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers — Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

Pittsburgh could end a draft fall for Devin Bush if it were to occur, because few other teams would be interested in addressing inside linebacker right away. Assuming that does not happen though, they are more likely to have their pick of the cornerbacks that will start going off the board in the late first round. Here, we’ll go with Byron Murphy, who along with DeAndre Baker has officially visited Pittsburgh, over Greedy Williams.

See the final group of picks on Page 3

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