NFL Mock Draft: Using wisdom of the crowd to predict the first round
21. Seattle Seahawks — Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
Clelin Ferrell is probably not making it lower than this (in only four of the 17 mock drafts is he available after pick no. 21). This is a prime spot for a trade as well, as Seattle’s possibilities are all over the place. They could address the secondary, including at safety with an Earl Thomas replacement, but could trade down slightly for that. They could go offensive line, but there is no clear option here if the top four lineman are gone, which is the most likely scenario.
22. Baltimore Ravens — Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State
Baltimore is one of the teams that could address the center position early in the draft, and as we saw last year, with the Lions taking Frank Ragnow (who actually then played guard), teams can surprise in this range. Bradbury is the top option among those who could play center, with Erik McCoy out of Texas A&M as a possibility. Of course, this is another trade possibility given how the board could shape up, as cornerbacks and defensive linemen dominate this area of the draft board.
23. Houston Texans — Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
Over half the mock drafts have the Texans going offensive tackle, but it’s a major question of who that will be. Some have Dillard falling to the Texans but I think that’s an unlikely scenario, and there is no consensus that any of the others are consistently in the first round among Dalton Risner (7 times in first round out of 17), Greg Little (6 times), and Kaleb McGary (4 times).
Greedy Williams, meanwhile, is perhaps the best playmaking cornerback in the draft and should be coming off the board by now, if not sooner, and would make sense for Houston, or a team willing to trade up.
24. Oakland Raiders — Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
Daniel Jones might be the biggest wild card in the draft. He is a first rounder in just over half of the mocks. There’s buzz that he could go earlier in the first, but that’s not reflected in the consensus of the mock draft predictions yet. I’ll set this as his target point, because I do not see how Oakland has three first-round picks but does not address a potential Derek Carr replacement in the draft. It’s also an inflection point where another team could try to trade right in front of Oakland’s picks, with Seattle, Baltimore, or Houston, in order to nab Jones. Getting that fifth-year option for a quarterback makes jumping for them in the latter half of the first round preferable to waiting until the second.
25. Philadelphia Eagles — Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
Dexter Lawrence has the smallest variance of where he is going of anyone outside of the top eight picks. He’s universally in the first round, but in a tight window between picks 19 and 32, which is pretty unusual for someone who is not in the upper half of anyone’s first round. The most likely destinations are the next two spots, where the Eagles and Colts are playoff teams that could add to their long-term defensive line depth.
Philadelphia could also look to add Josh Jacobs at running back in this spot. Jacobs could get into the late first round though most teams could be looking at other primary needs.
26. Indianapolis Colts — Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
Whereas Lawrence is projected in about the same range by everyone, Jerry Tillery of Notre Dame is all over the place. Pro Football Focus has him going at 12 while seven of the mocks do not have him in the first round. We will split the difference and say Tillery, who has a median pick location at 31, would make sense for the Colts.
27. Oakland Raiders — Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
If the Raiders do get their quarterback, they could definitely go back to defense, and go with the secondary as the earlier pick is almost certainly going to be on the defensive line. The question will be whether the player they want gets to this spot, and it’s probably not the place to take the pass rusher as they can wait a few spots and still target someone in the second round. The value here is Noah Fant, and that would also be a fit with what Jon Gruden wants to do on offense.
28. Los Angeles Chargers — Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State
The Chargers are most likely to go with either an offensive or defensive lineman in this draft, and Risner sneaks into the late first round in just over half of mock drafts. The Chargers could also be in play for any of the defensive tackles if they slip to this spot.
29. Kansas City Chiefs — Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
The Chiefs are most likely to go with defense here in the secondary. That could be at cornerback with Deandre Baker or Rock Ya-Sin, or it could be at safety. Nassir Adderley is the one that makes the most sense as a deep safety partner to go with Tyrann Mathieu. Upgrading both safety spots would go a long way toward making the defense more respectable and able to play with the leads that Patrick Mahomes will provide. The pass rushing value is not here even though that is a need. I will say Baker, who is more consistently appearing in the first round, with a second choice of Adderley.
30. Green Bay Packers — A.J. Brown, WR, Mississippi
The Packers could look at tight end with Noah Fant if he falls and they have not already taken his Iowa teammate T.J. Hockenson earlier in the draft. They could also grab one of the Browns, A.J. or Marquise, at wide receiver, to upgrade that position group. Randall Cobb is gone, and after Davante Adams, the team got inconsistent contributions from Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Geronimo Allison (missed 11 games), and a host of other young players.
31. Los Angeles Rams — Jeffery Simmons, DL, Mississippi State
The Rams have the luxury of just letting the draft board come to them. They could go interior offensive line or add to the defensive line. They are in the perfect position to add Jeffery Simmons, who tore his ACL and will have to redshirt this season. Because they don’t have to draft for need, they can try to hit a home run.
32. New England Patriots — Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
The Patriots are always a candidate to stockpile picks and trade back, but adding a playmaker on offense or defensive linemen seems most likely if they stick. The top tight ends may not get to them. That leaves Brown, who could slide a little because of the Lisfranc injury that has had him out of workouts and drills. He’s already met with the Patriots and is the type of versatile receiver who could excel with their system.
Other First-Round Possibilities, these guys were all taken in at least two mock drafts but less than half, in order of their average position and number of selections:
Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
Nassir Adderley, S, Delaware
Chris Lindstrom, OG, Boston College
Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE, Louisiana Tech
Greg Little, OT, Mississippi
Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington
Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State
N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
Irv Smith, Jr., TE, Alabama
Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida
Erik McCoy, C, Texas A&M
Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State
Here is a list of the mock drafts reviewed for this exercise:
Bleacher Report
CBS-Brinson
CBS-Prisco
Draft Ace
EDS Football
ESPN-Kiper and McShay
Fantasy Pros
NFL.com- Casserly, Schrager, and Zierlein
Pro Football Focus
Rotoworld-Josh Norris
Rotoworld-Evan Silva
SB Nation
Sporting News
Walter Football
Yahoo
