It was a rough week for Doc Brown last weekend as he experienced his first losing week in the Top 3, going 1-2. Still, that’s 10 of 11 weeks where the Doc has won you money, and the season long percentages have been strong. We have a pretty good sense of how good and bad teams are by now so that makes games much easier to predict. The only factor is whether or not the teams comply on the field.
The Buffalo Bills may be just 2-9 on the season, but they’ve been extremely competitive lately. They’ve won two of their last six games and lost each of the four games by exactly three points. They’re getting six at Minnesota in some sports books which is double the margin they’ve been losing by. They keep things close and I have no reason to believe that will change.
Arizona has been one of the worst teams in the NFL, losing their last six games. Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo says it felt like three seasons ago when St. Louis lost their opener to Arizona and that’s how I feel. The Rams are a vastly improved team that plays most opponents closely. The Cardinals have an inconsistent quarterback who just experienced a meltdown on Monday night. They don’t have a whole lot going for them and even if they’re playing with motivation on their mind, I just don’t think they’re good enough to win.
Tampa Bay is tied for the best record ATS at 8-3 and that’s a major reason they’ve been a big Doc favorite in the Top 3 all year. We’ve also determined that they’re not good enough to hang with the best teams in the league, and the Falcons certainly fit that bill. The Doc has been anticipating a dropoff for the Falcons at some point because they’ve been playing so well for so many straight weeks and this could be it, but they’re a better team than Tampa Bay and should prove it. Atlanta’s offense has moved the ball steadily against every defense in football and should be able to run it well against the Bucs. Tampa has put up points against weak defenses, but they’ll likely struggle to score against the Falcons.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
