Doc Brown got back on track after struggling in week one with a stellar 11-4 week ATS and 12-4 week straight up in week two. The Doc is confident that he has a good read on most of the teams in the league. Some of the lines are extremely well placed, leaving Doc only about 50-50 on many picks. With other games, we’re seeing the line lag on where it should be. With that in mind, here are Doc Brown’s week 3 NFL picks:
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
Here is the reasoning behind many of the picks.
Buffalo is 2-0 so the Pats will be on high alert. They haven’t lost to the Bills since Tower Records was in business which means Buffalo is due. That’s all the more reason New England won’t make it easy. Buffalo can score and has the potential to cover, but I don’t think it will happen. If Oakland got 35 against them, I expect the Pats to do the same.
49ers-Bengals is a dog game that shouldn’t interest anyone. Cincy has actually competed in both of its first two games and doesn’t look too bad. This should be a low-scoring game between two poor teams. San Francisco plays conservatively and doesn’t put up many points. Cincy’s run defense is pretty good, so they should be able to handle Frank Gore. Bengals maybe by a field goal as Andy Dalton looks pretty competent thus far.
Dolphins-Browns is another dog game. Cleveland has not impressed me at all in two weeks. Peyton Hillis may be a bit banged up, and the Browns may not be good enough to exploit Miami’s weak pass defense. I think Miami makes enough plays to beat another weak team, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Browns win.
The Titans are a pretty good team. They showed that last week at home against Baltimore. They have two home run hitters in Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt, which is two more playmakers than Denver has. With Champ Bailey out, Tennessee should put up some points on the Broncos.
I’m big on Detroit this year. I’ve been big on them since the preseason and nothing has changed. In fact, they’ve played just as well as I could have expected. I also think Las Vegas highly overvalues the Vikings. They had them as a favorite last week against Tampa Bay. I realize this is a divisional game, but the Lions are an indoor team and miles ahead of Minnesota. This should be a 7-point spread. I’ll be happy to lay the 3.5.
Vegas really likes Houston to make them just a four-point dog. After the way the Saints spread the ball around on the Bears last week, I can only imagine how many points they put up on Houston. I can smell a 40-spot coming. Houston has a good offense and improved defense, but the Saints are really strong.
The Giants’ defense has looked vulnerable, and we know what Vick did against them last year. I think Vick will play and do well. This should be much closer than a nine-point spread, but I like the Eagles to win. They have too many deep threats for the Giants to contain.
I like Carolina a lot this week. This line is way too thin. Sure the Panthers are 0-2, but last week they looked good at home against the defending Super Bowl champs. I think Cam Newton gets his first career win in a big way this week. I also envision Blaine Gabbert struggling in his first career start.
I have the Jets covering, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders win. Mark Sanchez is not that good, so the defense needs to continue carrying the team. Denarius Moore looked great for the Raiders last week and he looks like an offensive weapon. Still, I think Oakland’s offense is too one-dimensional (running game focused), so I think the Jets will be able to gameplan well to stop them.
St. Louis is battling injuries and missing playmakers Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola. Their defense is pretty good, and their passing game is fine. They should be able to move the ball through the air, but Baltimore is the better team. The Ravens should get back on track after losing to Tennessee last weekend.
This is the week San Diego puts it together. They struggled week one against Minnesota, made a few mistakes last week in New England, and this week they get it together. Antonio Gates may not play, but they still have Vincent Jackson and Ryan Mathews and enough players to put up some points. I think Kansas City has packed it in for the year. We’ll see if that proves to be the case.
Chicago took a dump against New Orleans after beating Atlanta in week one. They’ll be at home in a divisional game so they should be well prepared for this one. Their pass protection struggles are an issue, and that’s why I don’t think they’ll win, but their defense gives the Packers’ offense enough difficulty to keep it close.
Seattle is dreadful. They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The only thing they have going for them is a pretty good run defense and a homefield advantage. Arizona has already proven they can play well on the road against a decent team in Washington. They should be able to handle the Seahawks.
I think Atlanta is a better team than Tampa Bay, but the Falcons defense gives me some concern. Still, I’ll take them heads up against their division opponent. This should be an extremely close game as the -1.5 spread indicates.
10.5 points is a lot to give on the road, but I can’t bring myself to take the Colts. I think a spread of 17 points would be needed for me to take Indy. I just don’t have any confidence in their offense without Peyton Manning. They improved last week, but you can’t reasonably expect them to perform against Pittsburgh’s defense.
Dallas’ entire offense is banged up. I question the team’s ability to play well when they’re not at full strength. Contrarily, Washington’s offense and defense looks fine, and I already liked them to begin with. It’s just more reasons to think they’ll go on the road and pick up a big Monday night win.
