When we posted our Week 5 picks, I told you how Doc Brown and Del differed quite a bit. We were certain that would result in a tough week for one of the two experts, and I’m sorry to say — it was Del. Del’s picks checked in at an embarrassing 5-9 last week while Doc Brown dominated with a total of 11-3 ATS. Doc and Del differ on only three games this week ATS, which is probably good news for Del considering the way things have gone.
I’ll start off by agreeing with the Doc that Pittsburgh will smoke Cleveland. I can’t say I like the game as much as he does, but the spread of this one could be -13.5 without Ben Roethlisberger when you consider how the Steelers have played in his absence. He’ll make them that much more dangerous. The game I really love is Houston at home against Kansas City. Although the Chiefs held their own against the Colts, I still think they’re overrated. The spread has been driven down thanks to the Texans coming out flat against the Giants last weekend but I think they bounce back big at home this week.
Two spreads that I think are based strictly on reputation are the Chargers -9 at St. Louis and San Francisco -6.5 at home against the Raiders. What has either team done to warrant being favored by that much? If the Chargers were at home I might take them, but I don’t see them blowing out the Rams in St. Louis. Same goes for the 49ers at home. They should pick up their first win, but it feels like they’ve called it a year so I’d be surprised to see any fireworks.
Here are Del’s NFL Week 6 expert picks with a few more thoughts after the jump.
I like the Cowboys a lot this week for a couple of reasons. First of all, the off-the-field drama surrounding Brett Favre and his supposed arm injury means distractions galore for the Vikings. Also, Wade Phillips does a pretty good job of winning games when his job appears to be on the line. I think the Saints will finally come up with a big win on the road against Tampa Bay. I don’t think they’re offense has clicked yet and I have a feeling it will this week.
The two toughest games for me to pick were the Patriots-Ravens and Jets-Broncos. For the first time in three-plus years, the Pats offense is a question mark. That question mark is facing a brutal Ravens defense but I think they’ll be able to spread the ball around and Tom Brady will get back to doing what he used to do — controlling the clock. The Jets are obviously a better team than Denver, but this looks like a a game they could easily lose on the road in a hostile environment. Darrelle Revis still isn’t 100% healthy and the Broncos have thrown the ball as well as any team in the league.
