It’s about time. After a rough couple weeks, Del was able to get back on track last week and post a respectable 8-5 ATS and 9-4 SU. He’s still sitting at a game below .500 for the season ATS, but it’s nice to enjoy a solid week after quite the drought. Most importantly, the Top 3 came in at 2-1 once again, proving those are still the picks you should bank on if you’re taking our advice. Let’s have a look at this week’s Top 3.
I love the Jets on the road this week in Detroit, only laying four points. Getting shutout by the Packers at home last Sunday could not have felt good for Rex Ryan’s squad. The Lions may be resilient, but that doesn’t mean they’re very good. The Jets’ defense should be able to force Matthew Stafford into making a few mistakes and their offense should be playing with a chip on its shoulder. I expect them to win by at least a touchdown.
Another team I like is the Texans at home getting 3 points. They may have the worst pass defense in the league, but the Chargers have the most banged-up passing attack in the league. Antonio Gates is reportedly battling injuries to both his feet and I doubt he’ll be himself if he’s able to go. Malcom Floyd is out once again and Vincent Jackson is not yet eligible to play. There should be a lot of scoring in this one, but Houston should be able to win in a shootout in front of their home crowd after a tough loss to the Colts on Monday night.
The third team I’m high on this week after their victory against the Steelers is the Saints. Like Doc Brown said, Carolina hung with New Orleans earlier in the year and that’s deterring a lot of people from taking them laying almost a full 7. Their passing game seems to be clicking and their defense showed plenty of life against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. They should beat a poor Panthers team easily this time around. More analysis after the picks.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
I like Atlanta giving up 9 mainly because they were just on a bye. While successful, Tampa Bay has had a lot of games come right down to the wire. They should be getting a little worn down and that usually spells trouble when playing a good offense on the road in a dome. I think the Vikings, though at home, are favored by way too many. Arizona has quarterback issues but the Vikings have issues with everything. Derek Anderson is an experienced starter (if nothing else) and he should be able to keep it somewhat close against a team in shambles.
I think the Dolphins are still underrated. They have a quality defense and Chad Henne is maturing as the season goes along. They came up with a big win on the road against the Bengals last week and were able to hold off a late Cincinnati push. I think the Ravens will beat them, but by a field goal or less. I could even see the Dolphins winning this one so taking the 5 points was a relatively easy decision.
New England was almost one of my Top 3 this week. A game on the road against the Browns looks like a trap game on paper, but Bill Belichick is one of the best in the business at preventing his guys from underestimating the competition. He’s also one of the best at giving rookie quarterbacks a fit.
Although the Bears are coming off a bye, I think the Bills could come up with their first win this weekend. Jay Cutler is making too many mistakes and Chicago’s offensive line has been a joke. We expected the Ravens and Chiefs to blow Buffalo out, but they seem to be getting closer and closer every week. This could be their first win of the season.
With the news that Charlie Whitehurst will start for the Seahawks, I was tempted to take the Giants as one of my Top 3 as well. Qwest Field is just too tough a place to play for me to be confident taking the G-Men laying that many points. I still think they’ll be able to pull it off, however.
As the Doc mentioned, Andy Reid always has his teams ready after the bye week. I expect the return of Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson to be too much for the Colts to handle. Indy’s run defense is poor and their passing attack is hurting. As for the Raiders — they can’t keep playing like this, can they?
For the night games, I like Dallas getting 9 against the Packers. Green Bay is obviously the superior team, but Jon Kitna should play a little better in his second start and keep the game within that many points. At the same time, this is probably the game I was least comfortable picking because the Cowboys may have just stopped trying. I like the Steelers giving 5, even on the road. The Bengals just aren’t very good and Pittsburgh should be extremely determined after the loss to the Saints last Sunday night. They won’t want to lose two straight prime time games.
